US embassy cable - 03ANKARA6481

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 006481 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PINR, PGOV, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: MORE FALLOUT FROM AK PARTY CONVENTION 
 
 
REF: ANKARA 6447 
 
 
(C) Classified by Deputy Political Counselor Charles O. 
Blaha. Reason: 1.5 (b,d). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: As noted reftel, PM Erdogan emerged from the 
Oct. 12 AK Party convention more firmly in control of the 
party's administration.  In changing almost half of the AK's 
fifty-member Central Decision-Making and Administrative Board 
(MKYK), Erdogan has provided some clues as to who in the 
party is on the rise and who may be losing influence.  Our 
contacts maintain that the changes reflect Erdogan's efforts 
to promote a pragmatic decision-making team.  End Summary. 
 
 
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Stars On the Rise 
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2. (C) In the aftermath of the AK Party convention Oct. 12, 
our AK contacts say that Justice Minister and GOT Spokesman 
Cemil Cicek is now in a stronger position within the party. 
Erdogan appointed Cicek as the convention's director of 
events (Divan Baskani), a position that allowed Cicek to 
administer the convention in its entirety.  It also afforded 
Cicek the opportunity to make the only speech that came after 
Erdogan's acceptance speech, which our contacts say is an 
indication of Erdogan's confidence in Cicek. 
 
 
3. (C) AK M.P. Omer Celik won a seat on the Central 
Decision-Making and Administrative Board (MKYK).  Celik is a 
long-time close advisor to Erdogan and occasionally drafts 
speeches for the PM.  In an Oct. 16 meeting, a well-placed AK 
official in Istanbul municipality who has known Erdogan for 
years described Celik as "Erdogan's man" and someone who 
shares the PM's vision.  The AK official asserted that 
Celik's appointment reflects Erdogan's desire for pragmatism 
in the AK administration.  One AK deputy who is an 
independent thinker and who has provided reliable insight in 
the past explained to us recently that Erdogan is seeking 
people -- like Celik -- who can offer a variety of opinions 
and can discuss those opinions openly without resorting to 
rhetorical brinkmanship, as was the case with former Deputy 
PM Yalcinbayir. 
 
 
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Falling Stars? 
-------------- 
 
 
4. (C) Our contacts also note that several well-known AK 
figures clearly came away losers, including Deputy PM and FM 
Gul, who seemed somber throughout the convention. 
Originally, our contacts say that Gul had been slated to 
preside over the convention.  However, Erdogan did not want 
to give Gul (long considered a rival to the PM) the spotlight 
and the opportunity to address the party delegates.  Our 
contacts also claim that Gul has not been involved in AK's 
internal affairs for some time now. 
 
 
5. (C) Reftel noted that DefMin Vecdi Gonul was left out of 
the MKYK largely because the DefMin did not have the time to 
devote to business.  However, a journalist with close ties to 
AK told us Oct. 15 that Erdogan believes Gonul is too close 
to the military.  The journalist argued that while Erdogan, 
in one sense, sees this as a liability, the PM may be 
planning to appoint Gonul Education Minister down the road 
(Note: Many of our AK contacts tell us that Erdogan is 
planning a cabinet shuffle around the new year.  Despite his 
apparent diminished position within the party, Gonul would 
remain DefMin until a shuffle. End Note).  In appointing 
Gonul, who is seen as someone with whom the military can 
work, as Education Minister, Erdogan hopes to mollify the 
military's concerns about AK's education reform proposals, 
which AK plans to pursue slowly over the next few months. 
 
 
6. (C) Also notable among the apparent losers, according to 
our contacts, is AK M.P. Egemen Bagis, who was left off the 
MKYK.  Bagis frequently serves as Erdogan's interpreter in 
meetings with English-speakers and describes himself as the 
PM's foreign policy advisor.  He also serves as Chairman of 
Parliament's Turkish-US Friendship Group. 
EDELMAN