US embassy cable - 03THEHAGUE2636

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002636 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR/SCC WESTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2013 
TAGS: PREL, EU, TK, NL 
SUBJECT: DUTCH PRIME MINISTER VISITS TURKEY 
 
 
Classified By: DCM Daniel Russel Reason 1.5 (b) 
 
1.  This is an action request for EUR/SCC Tom Weston.  Please 
see para 9. 
 
2.  (C) Summary:  Prime Minister Balkenende traveled to 
Istanbul and Ankara October 7-9 to discuss developments in 
Turkey's EU accession bid and Cyprus.  Despite Turkish pleas, 
the Dutch made no promises on Turkey's EU candidacy.  The 
Dutch confirmed that Turkey has made great legislative 
progress in working to fulfill the Copenhagen criteria, but 
also maintained that significant work on implementation 
remains.  They encouraged the Turks to continue progress, 
especially in the judicial and human rights sectors.  On 
Cyprus, the Dutch expected to hear positive signals from 
Foreign Minister Gul on the need to find a solution, but were 
disappointed.  (Note:  A decision on whether or not to set a 
date for Turkey to begin EU accession talks will occur during 
the Dutch EU presidency in the second half of 2004.  End 
note.) End Summary. 
 
EU Accession 
-------------- 
 
3.  (C) Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende and Foreign 
Minister Jaap de Hoop Scheffer visited Turkey October 7-9. 
MFA Turkish Desk Officer Lesley d'Huy, who traveled with the 
Ministers, confirmed that discussions revolved primarily 
around Turkish desires to obtain a date to begin EU accession 
talks during the Dutch EU presidency in the second half of 
2004.  Both the Turkish Prime Minister and President bluntly 
asked for Dutch support of Turkey's candidacy.  PM Balkenende 
responded diplomatically that he could not pledge such 
support in advance of the November 5 EU Commission report on 
Turkish progress in meeting the Copenhagen criteria. 
However, d'Huy noted that the Ministers feel that Turkey is 
moving positively towards fulfilling the legislative 
requirements.  While the Turks assert they have fulfilled 
"all of the political requirements of the Copenhagen 
criteria," d'Huy noted that the Commission report will 
highlight a few areas, primarily in the judicial sector and 
regarding human rights, which still require progress. 
However, she opined that these areas will be overcome.  The 
main problem remains implementation.  Both Prime Minister 
Balkenende and Foreign Minister de Hoop Scheffer reinforced 
the importance of sincere implementation of Copenhagen 
criteria.  The Dutch will carefully watch to see if new 
reforms, especially those concerning human rights, freedom of 
expression, freedom of religion and those in the judicial 
sector, are adequately implemented throughout the next twelve 
months. 
 
Sezer - What Else? 
------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Turkish President Sezer was blunt with the Dutch, 
asking PM Balkenende if Turkey could count on the EU to set a 
date for accession talks if all implementation requirements 
are met.  He wanted to know - "what other excuses might the 
EU create to prohibit Turkish accession?"  PM Balkenende 
dodged the question by making a joke with regards to the 
number of Dutch soccer players playing on Turkish teams. 
However, D'Huy commented that Sezer's question highlighted 
the Turkish fear that the EU will not allow Turkish 
membership in any form, choosing instead to be a 
Judeo-Christian union.  PM Balkenende later dismissed the 
idea of a link/hidden agenda that the EU would refuse 
membership on religious grounds. To put Sezer's fears further 
to rest, he underscored that in his view a reference to 
religion (Judeo-Christian) in the European constitution would 
recognize where and how the union was originally founded, and 
not determine the future of the union.  D'Huy stated that 
while fear of a Muslim state has been and will likely 
continue to be an issue for some Europeans, such an outlook 
is dwindling. 
 
NGOs Play a Role in Assessing Implementation 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) In Istanbul on October 8, the Ministers met with local 
NGOs.  One individual in particular, a Protestant man, 
strongly affected the Ministers as he described that he could 
neither be properly buried nor erect a church in which to 
worship in Turkey.  Both PM Balkenende and FM de Hoop 
Scheffer brought this man's story to the attention of the 
Turkish Prime and Foreign Ministers.  PM Balkenende used it 
as an example of how far implementation has yet to go.  He 
cautioned that if such scenarios did not change and such a 
story were told on TV in the Netherlands, any Parliamentary 
and public support for Turkish accession would evaporate. 
D'Huy stated that in general, the Dutch felt that the Turks 
were not pursuing implementation in human rights areas 
actively enough.  While their official line was "just tell us 
the problem, we'll ensure that it is fixed," the Dutch were 
looking for a more proactive stance.  In particular they felt 
that State Minister Mehmet Aydin was too dismissive of 
remaining problems.  The Dutch will likely meet again with 
NGOs in spring 2004, when a visit of MFA State Secretary for 
European Affairs Atzo Nicolai is tentatively planned. 
 
Cyprus - A Negative Change of Attitude? 
---------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Foreign Minister de Hoop Scheffer met privately with 
Foreign Minister Gul.  The Dutch FM hoped for reassurances by 
FM Gul, building upon Gul's recent positive statements, on 
the need to find a permanent solution to the Cyprus 
situation.  However, the Dutch FM left empty-handed.  Gul was 
silent, not commenting on nor stating that a solution must be 
found before May 2004.  FM de Hoop Scheffer noted that a lack 
of solution on Cyprus by 2004 could hurt Turkey's accession 
bid; however, Gul again was not responsive.  The Dutch are 
now concerned that this may be a change from the recent 
positive statements made by Gul, and that finding a Cyprus 
solution is not an immediate objective of the Turkish 
government.  D'Huy opined that perhaps the Turks believe that 
if they can get an EU accession date without settling the 
Cyprus question, all the better domestically.  When asked by 
PolOff if the Dutch would oppose granting a date to Turkey 
without such a solution, d'Huy stated that it was not really 
for the GoNL to decide.  If Cyprus and Greece could live with 
such an outcome, the GoNL would not oppose.  Nevertheless, 
d'Huy commented that opening accession talks with Turkey when 
it does not officially recognize a member state would 
complicate matters. 
 
Other Issues:  Afghanistan, NATO, Iraq 
----------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) In a meeting with President Sezer, Prime Minister 
Balkenende thanked Turkey both for allowing Dutch forces 
engaged in Afghanistan to use Turkish bases, as well as for 
Turkish support of Dutch FM de Hoop Scheffer for NATO SYG. 
Following the announcement by the Turkish Parliament to send 
Turkish troops to Iraq and the subsequent initial reaction of 
the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC), d'Huy reported that 
Turkish interlocutors told the Dutch that they desired to 
remain out of any emerging conflict between the CPA and the 
IGC.  The Turks stated they had done what was needed in 
approving the deployment of troops; the CPA would now have to 
decide where and when, if at all, to use such troops.  The 
issue of the PKK and PKK member Nuriya Kesbir was also 
broached by the Dutch. 
 
Overall Outlook 
----------------- 
 
8.  (C) Comment:  The Dutch tell us privately that EU member 
states may be moving closer to setting a date for Turkish 
accession talks in December 2004.  D'Huy stated that Germany 
and Luxembourg, two previous hardliners against Turkish 
membership, are more positive following meetings this spring. 
 Prime Minister Balkenende's comments during the meetings 
demonstrate he does not personally oppose Turkish membership 
in the EU.  Nevertheless, the Dutch will reserve any public 
statements in favor of accession at this time to keep the 
prssure on Turkey and for domestic political reasons. 
Domestically, several members of the PM's Christian Democrats 
(CDA) party strongly oppose Turkish membership.  CDA Floor 
Leader Maxime Verhagen has stated that he does not see 
Turkish membership for the time being, and that Turkey should 
not count on getting an date during the Dutch EU Presidency. 
Balkenende's coalition partner, Deputy Prime Minister Zalm, 
has taken an even tougher line, at one point likening 
Turkey's accession to the U.S. admitting Mexico as the 51st 
state.  Parliamentary discussion will heat-up when Prime 
Minister Erdogan's visits the Hague in spring 2004. 
FM-designate Ben Bot, a former Ambassador to Turkey, is known 
to be more favorably disposed to Turkish accession.  End 
Comment. 
 
9.  Action request:  The Dutch MFA has expressed interest in 
U.S. views on Cyprus, particularly Turkey's approach.  Post 
suggests that a briefing in the Hague by SCC Weston would be 
very welcome by the GoNL.  End Action request. 
RUSSEL