US embassy cable - 03ABUJA1787

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001787 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2008 
TAGS: ELAB, EPET, PGOV, PHUM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: POLICE ARREST LABOR OFFICIALS 
 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 1737 B. LAGOS 2090 
 
 
Classified by Poloff Russell Hanks for Reasons 1.5 (B) and 
(D). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: Nigerian Police arrested six Nigeria Labour 
Congress (NLC) leaders Monday in an apparent move by the GON 
to hinder Labor's efforts to monitor a 34 naira per liter cap 
on fuel prices and blunt a possible NLC nationwide strike. 
Abuja's Magistrate Court refused bail yesterday for the six 
officials and instead charged them with criminal conspiracy. 
In response, the NLC called an emergency National Executive 
Council meeting this morning in Nassarawa State to formulate 
an agenda for tomorrow's scheduled stakeholders meeting in 
Abuja between the NLC, 36 State Governors, and Nigerian oil 
marketers. With oil importers subject to market prices and 
the GON unwilling to revert back to selling directly to 
suppliers at a fixed price, the NLC may set a nationwide 
strike date following tomorrow's meeting. Tomorrow's meeting 
will also test State Governors' willingness to support the 
President in an unpopular policy decision or respond to the 
NLC's populist stance.  End Summary. 
 
 
GON PLAYS HARDBALL WITH NLC 
--------------------------- 
 
 
2. (C) Federal Capital Territory Police arrested Monday and 
continued to detain today Linus Ukamba, NLC's Senior 
Assistant General Secretary, and five other labor officials 
for picketing a fueling station in Abuja that was charging 
motorist more than 34 naira per liter. The NLC, Nigeria's 
State Governors, and oil marketers brokered a deal last week 
that in theory guaranteed that fueling stations throughout 
the country would sell petrol at the official 34 naira price 
(reftel A), at least until the end of October.  Benson Upah, 
a senior NLC official, stated to Econoff that by arresting 
and detaining the NLC officials, President Obasanjo clearly 
indicated that the GON was "at war" with Labor. 
 
 
NLC's Credibility at Stake 
--------------------------- 
 
 
3. (C) Upah informed Econoff that he was surprised that the 
GON would take such actions with a stakeholders meeting 
scheduled tomorrow.  According to an Abuja-based AFL-CIO 
official, oil marketers informed NLC leadership yesterday 
that a Unipetrol shipment had just arrived in Lagos.  Oil 
marketers said they are now paying 33 naira per liter and, 
after additional costs and profit margins, will have to sell 
at approximately 45 naira per liter.  Press reports indicate 
that major oil marketers may instead keep prices in Abuja and 
Lagos at slightly below 40 naira for the short-term. 
 
 
4. (C) The Labor Attach met this afternoon with Denja Yaqub, 
NLC's Assistant Secretary for Organisation, who stated that 
NLC leadership was worried that Labor would have problems 
mobilizing its members quickly for a strike.  Nonetheless, 
Yaqub said that the NLC would react fast to either mobilize 
Labor and threaten to strike or accept a price increase 
acceptable to NLC's constituents.  Yaqub commented that the 
NLC would have a difficult time explaining a price increase 
to its constituents after it called off last week's strike 
and proclaimed victory by brokering a deal to keep fuel 
prices at 34 naira. 
 
 
Prices Steady But Likely to Climb 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
5. (C) Nassarawa State Governor Abdullahi Adamu State 
confirmed that the agreement reached last week with Labor 
would only last another week or two and said it was based on 
PPMC's (the GON's fuel marketer) present stock of fuel. 
Abdullahi stated that the issue would be addressed at 
tomorrow's stakeholders meeting. During the weekend, Econoff 
traveled to Kano and Kaduna where fuel was scarce and selling 
from 60 to 100 naira per liter.  Poloff returned yesterday 
from a trip to the East of Nigeria where fuel was selling for 
well over 100 naira per liter.  Note: In late September, 
President Obasanjo suspended all PPMC contracts for the 
importation of fuel for the last quarter of 2003 and first 
quarter of 2004, preparing the ground for importation by the 
major marketers and successful deregulation of the downstream 
sector. End Note. 
 
 
6. (C) Comment: President Obasanjo clearly stated last week 
(reftel B) during a nationally televised speech that any NLC 
strike without a 15 day warning required by law would be 
illegal.  Labor's view, however, is that this is an extension 
of the June/July strike action which was merely "suspended" 
rather than settled.  Monday's arrests may be a precursor to 
further arrests of Labor officials over the next several 
weeks as the GON attempts to stop a possible NLC strike over 
ever increasing fuel prices.  Since the NLC has already 
informed the public that a deal was reached last week to keep 
the price at 34 naira for the next three weeks, labor leaders 
are now meeting to discuss how they plan to respond.  They 
have three options:  spin the issue to keep people from 
protesting the increase; ask oil marketers to give them more 
time; or strike.  Even though outside Abuja and Lagos, prices 
are double or triple the NLC's 34 naira benchmark, tomorrow's 
stakeholders meeting will test the NLC's political muscle and 
will.  Tomorrow's meeting will also test State Governors' 
willingness to support the President in an unpopular policy 
decision or respond to the NLC's populist stance.  End 
Comment. 
MEECE