US embassy cable - 03ROME4678

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 004678 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CENTCOM FOR POLAD, J5 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2013 
TAGS: MOPS, PREL, IT, IZ, IRAQI FREEDOM 
SUBJECT: ITALY, IF ASKED, READY TO EXTEND IRAQ MISSION 
 
    CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR TOM COUNTRYMAN 
FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (C) 
 
 1.  (U)  DEFMIN MARTINO, SPEAKING TO THE PRESS IN NEW YORK 
ON OCTOBER 11, SAID ITALY WAS CONSIDERING EXTENDING ITS 
MILITARY PRESENCE IN IRAQ FOR AN ADDITIONAL SIX MONTHS.  THE 
ITALIAN MISSION, DUBBED ANTICA BABILONIA, WAS AUTHORIZED ON 
JULY 10 BY A GOVERNMENT DECREE, WHICH PARLIAMENT SUBSEQUENTLY 
APPROVED LATER IN THE MONTH.  ITALY'S CURRENT DEPLOYMENT, 
TOTALING 2,800 MILITARY PERSONNEL (THE THIRD LARGEST 
COALITION MILITARY FORCE IN IRAQ), HAS FUNDING THROUGH 
DECEMBER 31. 
 
2.  (U)  MARTINO ON OCTOBER 12, PRESSED FOR A CLARIFICATION 
BY AN ITALIAN NEWS REPORTER, SAID THAT EVEN THOUGH ITALY HAD 
NOT DECIDED TO EXTEND ANTICA BABILONIA, IT WAS REASONABLE TO 
EXPECT THE USG TO MAKE SUCH A REQUEST.  HE ADDED THAT, IF 
ASKED, ITALY WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO REFUSE ITS CLOSE ALLY. 
MARTINO ALSO GUARANTEED THAT AN EVENTUAL DECISION TO EXTEND 
THE MISSION WOULD BE "BROUGHT BEFORE PARLIAMENT", WITHOUT 
SPECIFYING WHETHER THE GOVERNMENT WOULD PUT THE MATTER TO A 
VOTE. 
 
3.  (SBU)  MARTINO'S COMMENTS ELICITED A CONFUSED RESPONSE 
FROM THE OPPOSITION CENTER-LEFT.  THE MORE EXTREME PARTIES 
(REFOUNDED COMMUNISTS, ITALIAN COMMUNISTS, AND GREENS) URGED 
AN IMMEDIATE WITHDRAWAL OF ITALIAN FORCES FROM IRAQ, WHILE 
OTHERS (DEMOCRATS OF THE LEFT, DAISY, AND ITALIAN SOCIALISTS) 
INDICATED THAT ITALIAN FORCES COULD REMAIN AFTER DECEMBER 31, 
BUT ONLY UNDER A UN MANDATE.  NOTE: BECAUSE A FOLLOW-ON 
MISSION WOULD REQUIRE APPROXIMATELY 200-250 MILLION EUROS IN 
    NEW FUNDING, IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO 
AVOID ASKING PARLIAMENT FOR EXPLICIT APPROVAL.  REGARDLESS, 
STRONG CROSS-PARTY SUPPORT FOR ANTICA BABILONIA WITHIN THE 
CENTER-RIGHT COALITION WOULD LIKELY ENSURE THE GOVERNMENT A 
FAVORABLE OUTCOME.  END NOTE. 
 
4.  (C)  COMMENT:  MARTINO DOES NOT EXPECT AN IMMEDIATE 
INDICATION OF U.S. NEEDS IN IRAQ. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT 
THROUGH HIS PUBLIC COMMENTS HE IS ASKING THE USG TO DECIDE IN 
A TIMELY MANNER WHETHER TO ASK ITALY FOR AN EXTENSION, AND TO 
COMMUNICATE ANY DECISION DIRECTLY TO HIM.  MARTINO'S 
REFERENCE TO "SIX-MONTHS" WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY MEANT TO 
CONVEY THAT SUCH A LENGTH OF TIME WOULD BE POLITICALLY 
OPTIMAL.  WE ASSUME THAT OUR MILITARY PLANNERS ARE EVALUATING 
POST DECEMBER 31 COALITION REQUIREMENTS.  WE ENCOURAGE THEM 
TO MAKE A NEAR-TERM RECOMMENDATION ON HOW ITALY CAN BEST 
CONTRIBUTE TO IRAQ'S STABILIZATION SO THAT WE CAN CONVEY A 
FORMAL REQUEST TO MARTINO AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.  END COMMMENT. 
 
SEMBLER 
 
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	2003ROME04678 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL