US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2634

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002634 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, PINR, GT, UN 
SUBJECT: JUST ANOTHER LATIN AMERICAN ELECTION, FOR NOW 
 
Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: The election campaign, which got off to a 
violent start, marred by allegations of expected fraud, has 
settled in recent weeks into what the UN mission aptly 
described as "just another Latin American election."  The 
continuing heated confrontation between the ruling FRG and 
the opposition, however, lead many to believe that further 
violence is possible.  Polls continue to show Berger with a 
conformable lead, but the gap between the three front 
runners, including General Rios Montt, is narrowing.  UNE 
candidate Colom told us that if the FRG makes it into the 
second round of the elections, all the opposition parties 
have agreed to oppose the FRG.  The Supreme Electoral 
Tribunal decided unanimously to allow FRG candidate for mayor 
of Guatemala City Rabbe to run, overturning an earlier 
decision by the Registry of Persons that he had not met the 
conditions to be a candidate.  The OAS Election Observation 
Mission filed complaints against President Portillo and 
Guatemala City Mayor (and candidate for President) Garcia 
Gallont for using public resources to promote partisan 
campaigns.  The EU election observation mission is on the 
ground, and will have a large scale presence around the 
country on election day.  End summary. 
 
The Calm Before the Storm? 
-------------------------- 
2. (C) Since the beginning of August, the national election 
campaign in Guatemala has been characterized by fiery stump 
speeches by all candidates in the most remote corners of the 
country and uninspiring public debates (with only the smaller 
parties participating) in the capital.  The violent 
confrontation that characterized the early part of the 
campaign and the daily allegations that the FRG was going to 
commit massive fraud throughout the campaign and on election 
day have virtually disappeared, at least for now.  An 
internal MINUGUA document (please protect) of early October, 
notes that of the twenty cases of murders of "political 
activists," only two were clearly politically motivated, and 
most of the others were clearly not politically motivated. 
It further concludes that the election campaign has become 
"just another Latin American election."  With levels of 
confrontation still high, and with the UNE and FRG hotly 
contesting second place (in order to make it into the second 
round of elections), we can not rule out the possibility of 
future violence.  But for now, we agree that the election 
campaign has settled into a more normal rhythm. 
 
Polls Show Gap Narrowing 
------------------------ 
3. (U) An unpublished Noguera poll, taken between September 
26 and October 5, shows that GANA candidate Berger's lead 
over UNE's Colom and the FRG's Rios Montt has narrowed 
somewhat, though it still gives Berger a 20 point lead. 
While we caution that polls in Guatemala are widely viewed as 
subject to partisan manipulation, the Noguera poll has been 
the most consistent with anecdotal evidence and our own 
soundings of voter preferences outside the capital. 
Following are Noguera's conclusions: 
 
-      voter preference as a percentage of total respondents 
-                July    August    September    October 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
Berger - GANA    30.5     39.6        40.7        36.2 
Colom - UNE      12.6     12.5        16.7        15.9 
Rios Montt - FRG 10.3     11.5        12.2        15.5 
Lopez R. - PAN    3.4      4.2         4.9         6.3 
Undecided        23.5     17.7        13.7        13.0 
 
4. (U) The poll notes that respondents view Berger as best 
positioned to create more jobs, but give him only a slight 
lead over Rios Montt in reducing crime.  The poll also 
concludes that 57.7% of respondents said they would never 
vote for Rios Montt, compared to 5.9% who said they would 
never vote for Berger. 
 
5. (C) UNE candidate Alvaro Colom told the Ambassador on 
October 8 that the ten smaller parties (all but the FRG and 
GANA) have agreed to join forces and support whichever of the 
ten parties makes it into the second round of elections.  He 
said that if none of them make it, and the runoff is between 
GANA and the FRG, they will all support GANA.  He 
acknowledged that none of the ten party leaders could command 
the second round vote of their followers, but said it was 
inconceivable that the FRG would pick up support from 
opposition voters. 
 
Green Light to Rabbe's Mayoral Candidacy 
---------------------------------------- 
6. (U) On October 8 the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) 
ruled unanimously that FRG candidate for Mayor of Guatemala 
City, Luis Rabbe, was eligible to run, overturning an earlier 
decision by the Registry of Persons which found him 
ineligible.  The TSE members concluded that the FRG did not 
in fact have a functioning Municipal Assembly, and therefore, 
the FRG's National Assembly had correctly chosen the mayoral 
candidate.  While some in the opposition groused at the 
decision, the TSE is widely viewed as impartial, and their 
unanimous decision put an end to the controversy.  The 
Noguera poll gives Rabbe 10.2% of voter preferences, compared 
with 47.0% for Unionista candidate (and former President) 
Alvaro Arzu and 20.2% for GANA's candidate Jorge Briz. 
 
OAS Questions Partisan Actions of Portillo and Garcia Gallont 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
7. (U) The OAS EOM filed complaints with the Public Ministry 
on October 9 alleging that President Portillo and Mayor of 
Guatemala City Fritz Garcia improperly used their public 
positions to promote partisan candidacies.  The complaint 
alleges that Portillo participated in FRG campaign rallies 
after the May convocation of national elections, violating 
the electoral law which forbids public officials from 
participating in partisan events.  Mayor Garcia Gallont, who 
is running as the presidential candidate for the Unionista 
Party, was accused of printing campaign propaganda on all 
municipal receipts.  The complaints have been filed with the 
Public Ministry for investigation and possible prosecution. 
Neither Portillo nor Garcia Gallont have responded to the 
charges publicly so far. 
 
EU Observation Mission on the Ground 
------------------------------------ 
8. (SBU) The Ambassador met with the head of the EU electoral 
observation mission, Jannis Sakellariou, and his deputy, 
Rafael Lopez Pintor, on October 8.  They noted that the EU 
mission will soon be opening offices in different regions of 
Guatemala, and will have a large presence on election day. 
The EU mission is coordinating with the OAS EOM to avoid 
duplication of efforts, but told us that efforts to 
coordinate with the OAS in other recent elections had had 
"mixed success."  The OAS EOM similarly told us that there is 
good communication between the missions, but that the mandate 
of the missions was different enough that coordination was 
only effective on very specific issues. 
 
Lots of Illiterate Voters 
------------------------- 
9. (U) The TSE completed its update of the electoral register 
("padron"), and announced that a total of 5,073,310 
Guatemalans had registered to vote.  The total represents an 
increase over the registry from 1999 roughly equal to 
population growth. Some illustrative figures from the 
registry:  29% of registered voters (1,477,814) identified 
themselves as illiterate; 26% of registered voters live in 
Guatemala City and its suburbs; the indigenous provinces of 
Quiche, Huehuetenango and San Marcos (that historically vote 
heavily for the FRG) make up 18% of registered voters. 
 
Comment 
------- 
10. (C) Expressions of concern that FRG fraud or manipulation 
could still influence the election continue to surface, but 
in recent weeks the election campaign has taken on the 
appearance of "just another Latin American election."  This 
week's "fear du jour" is that the FRG has already contracted 
all public transportation for election day, depriving the 
other parties of means to transport their voters to the 
polls.  While it is possible that the FRG has begun 
contracting busses, some of our opposition contacts have 
expressed doubt that the FRG could corner the market 
nationally.  We are not prepared to speculate that the final 
four weeks of this heated campaign will be as "normal" as the 
past ten weeks, especially if the FRG and UNE view themselves 
as neck and neck for a space in the second round.  However, 
the growing presence of international observers, especially 
in the countryside, and the public stand by the OAS against 
electoral violence and abuses to the electoral law, create 
disincentives for a last minute increase in bad behavior by 
the FRG or other political actors.  The Embassy will be 
sending out teams of reporting officers to the countryside in 
coming weeks to provide snapshots of voter preferences and 
election issues dominating the minds of rural voters. 
HAMILTON