US embassy cable - 03LAGOS2081

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002081 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB, EPET, PHUM, SOCI, NI 
SUBJECT: LASCO: NEW STRIKE, NEW PLANNING: NOT A REPEAT OF 
JULY 
 
REF: (A) LAGOS 02043 (B) ABUJA 01700 (C) LAGOS 02069 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Chima Ubani, Executive Director of the 
Civil Liberties Organisation (CLO), told us that labor and 
civil society leaders meeting on October 4 and 6 decided to 
begin a two-week general strike on Thursday, October 9. 
Demonstrations will be held on Thursday in Lagos, Abuja and 
Kano, with additional demonstrations slated for the 
Southeast.  A similar scenario is expected for Monday, 
October 13, but the demonstrations' intensity may be undercut 
by the possible absence of one or both of the two petroleum 
unions, the National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas 
Workers (NUPENG) and the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior 
Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN).  Conversations with 
the unions' presidents late on October 6 suggested that the 
unions are under pressure to strike but are actually willing 
to work with the GON to resolve the deregulation issue.  End 
summary. 
 
 
STRIKE AND DEMONSTRATIONS: NOT A REPEAT OF JULY 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
 
2. (SBU) Ubani said labor organizers and their civil society 
partners learned important lessons from the "fizzled" strike 
in July 2003 and are determined not to have a repeat 
performance.  The October 4 and 6 meetings of labor and civil 
society leaders resulted in the formation of an umbrella 
organization called the Labor Civil Society Coalition (LASCO) 
(Ref C) and the creation of a national framework for the 
strike and demonstrations.  Local meetings to detail, "fine 
tune" and set up a "framework for location control" were also 
set in motion.  LASCO, he says, has planned for a two-week 
action.  Ubani recognizes that two weeks is a long time; the 
"actual period will be determined on the ground," he said. 
Demonstrations have been organized for Lagos, Abuja and Kano, 
and others may be held in Enugu, Port Harcourt and Awka, 
Anambra State.  According to Ubani, Lagos will be the 
"national center" of demonstrations, with most taking place 
on the mainland in Yaba and Ikeja with possible rallies in 
Mushin and Akegbala.  Ubani did not believe Lagos Island, 
Ikoyi or Victoria Island would see demonstrations and noted 
that without many vehicles traveling, it would be difficult 
for demonstrators to reach the islands. 
 
 
THE PLAYERS AND THEIR ANNOUNCEMENT 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
3. (SBU) Ubani named four national leaders who are in charge 
of LASCO demonstrations: Adams Oshiomole, President of the 
Nigeria Labor Congress (NLC), Bamidele Aturu, President of 
United Action for Democracy (UAD), Dr. Jibirin Ibrahim, 
President of the Citizen's Forum for Constitutional Reform, 
and Mr. Didi Ododo, General Secretary of the Congress of 
Federal Trade Unions (CFTU).  Aturu will hold a press 
conference Tuesday morning to announce the planned 
demonstrations in Lagos and call on the general public to 
participate.  (Note: CLO is affiliated with UAD, the umbrella 
human rights organization that won prominence fighting the 
Abacha regime.  CLO was then and is still considered one of 
the prominent leaders of the Nigerian human rights 
community.)  Ubani said that LASCO would wait to see how the 
government responds to the announcement but reported that 
LASCO would probably forge ahead with its plans. 
 
 
TO STRIKE OR NOT TO STRIKE, THAT IS THE QUESTION 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
 
4. (SBU) Ubani reported that a long list of actors in the 
Nigerian trade union arena was set to strike on Thursday.  He 
included NUPENG and PENGASSAN, but conversations late on 
October 6 with Peter Akpatason, President of NUPENG, and 
Ogbeifun Louis Brown, National President of PENGASSAN, 
suggest that the petroleum unions are not fully committed to 
a strike.  Akpatason identified NUPENG's attitude as "middle 
of the road" and open to a two- or three-month discussion 
with the GON on "modalities of deregulation," which NUPENG 
supports in principle.  When asked if the NLC and other 
groups would strike without NUPENG, Akpatason said, "labor 
can't argue with us; it's our industry.  A few (unions and 
groups) will not be happy, but we think we can bring them 
around to our position."  Brown spoke in a distressed tone 
about wanting to "help the government and Nigerian people" by 
finding scenarios to address the issue of fuel price.  Brown 
wants a six-month "emergency structure" to assess the 
downstream sector and repair the Port Harcourt and Warri 
refineries. 
 
 
BURNING TIRES AND VIOLENCE AGAIN? 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
5. (SBU Ubani does not believe that the demonstrations will 
be violent.  He said local thugs or "area boys" would not be 
a factor in the demonstrations, mostly because "area boys are 
only able to take over when there's no leadership.  Once you 
have action called by a known platform with visible leaders, 
area boys have no position to unleash violence.  The only 
violence will be from police if they react poorly."  Ubani 
also doubts that demonstrators will attack vehicles, not 
because they won't want to, but because there won't be many 
cars out there. 
 
 
6. (SBU) Comment: The CLO and other civil society groups 
appear committed to the strike, but they seem more upset by 
the manner in which the decision to deregulate was taken than 
with deregulation as an economic policy.  Ubani characterized 
deregulation as an "unlawful action of the President in 
collusion with gas marketers" and called for the GON to reset 
the fuel price at 34 naira per liter.  This, of course, is 
unlikely.  Demonstrations will probably take place with or 
without PENGASSAN or NUPENG, but their legitimacy and 
strength may be undercut by the petroleum unions' absence. 
End comment. 
 
 
HINSON-JONES