US embassy cable - 03ABUJA1731

UNCLAS ABUJA 001731 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, EPET, ECON, NI 
SUBJECT: GAS STRIKE: HEARTBURN TO BEGIN OCTOBER 9 
 
REF: A. LAGOS 2078 
     B. LAGOS 2069 
     C. ABUJA 1668 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, NOT FOR PUBLICATION ON THE 
INTERNET OR INTRANET. 
 
 
1. (SBU) It seems certain that a strike and/or demonstrations 
will start in at least some parts of Nigeria October 9, led 
by a coalition of unions and NGOs protesting President 
Obasanjo's September 30 deregulation of gasoline prices. 
Violence could easily erupt, although the Nigeria Labor 
Congress (NLC) in Abuja has promised not to disrupt the 
All-Africa Games there and police nationwide have reportedly 
been ordered to show restraint in dealing with peaceful 
protest.  In the previous strike over a raise of gasoline 
prices in late June, President Obasanjo ignored the situation 
in public at first, as he is doing already this time, and 
pushed the National Assembly leadership (mainly Senate 
President Wabara) to mediate the issue informally before 
sending in GON negotiators.  Obasanjo agreed to a compromise 
gasoline price in July, the day before the oil unions NUPENG 
and PENGASSAN were to join the strike, but the compromise 
this time may go toward increasing gasoline supply and 
slowing the pace of deregulation rather than another 
compromise long-term pricing point.  The National Executive 
Council held its regular meeting October 8, and GON Ministers 
were generally unavailable for comment on the strike. 
 
 
2. (SBU) Senate President Wabara has already begun informal 
negotiations for the GON, his office tells us, even though 
his public line is that the GON did not raise gasoline prices 
(i.e. the GON deregulated, but it is the distributors that 
are raising the price -- a sophistry).  Speaker of the House 
Masari, also an Obasanjo ally, has been taking the same 
public line and calling for a restoration to the price of 34 
Naira per liter.  Wabara has already, by October 7, met twice 
with NLC leaders, and we have heard unconfirmed reports that 
more meetings have since taken place.  On October 8 the NLC 
continued to publicly state that they were open for 
negotiation, with no official response from the GON. 
 
 
3. (SBU) The governmental group that appears to be most 
worried about the strike at the moment is the police.  After 
getting hammered by the press over deaths from the last 
strike (we estimate 18 persons nationwide), which the 
Inspector General denied, the police are now dealing with the 
additional accusation that their tear gas contributed to the 
recent death of ANPP Vice Presidential candidate Chuba 
Okadigbo (Ref C) at a rally in Kano.  The National Police 
formally announced October 7 that the demonstrations are 
legal, and instructed all officers to be very careful about 
the indiscriminate use of force, and only to use force in the 
event of violent disorder.  Nevertheless, FM Adeniji told the 
Charge October 8 that the National Executive Council had 
decided for the Solicitor General seeking a court order 
against the strike on the grounds that the unions had not 
given enough advance notice under Nigeria's labor laws. 
 
 
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LUKMAN RESIGNATION 
------------------ 
 
 
4. (SBU) An additional wrinkle appeared October 7 with the 
resignation of the Senior Special Advisor to the President on 
Petroleum, Rilwanu Lukman.  The resignation letter cited no 
reasons, but his office confirmed to poloff that the Advisor 
had been uncomfortable with a separate conflict between the 
Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) and the Revenue 
Mobilization Allocation and Fiscal Commission. 
 
 
5. (SBU) Lukman actually tendered his resignation directly to 
the President on October 2.  Lukman's office confirmed 
October 8 that he would remain President of OPEC for the 
indefinite future, but would most likely have to step down as 
co-chair of NNPC, as that post was linked to his post as 
Presidential Advisor. 
ROBERTS