US embassy cable - 03ABUJA1724

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001724 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: VISIT TO KWARA STATE 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, NOT FOR PUBLICATION ON THE 
INTRANET OR INTERNET. 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  Governing Kwara State, like some other 
states, is a family affair.  Governor Bukola Saraki's father 
is the political kingmaker in Kwara, having handpicked the 
previous two governors and arranged for his daughter to be 
elected to the Senate in the same April elections that sent 
his son to the statehouse.  Poloff traveled to Kwara in 
September to visit the Governor, the Kwara PDP chairman and 
other local officials; the meetings were interesting, but 
among them only Governor Saraki appeared to have any real 
power or knowledge of what is really going on in the state. 
Federal (national government) institutions are powerful in 
the states' affairs, and state governors played a role in the 
nominations for this year's national elections.  Governor 
Saraki was knowledgeable and interested in Federal politics, 
and believes the Presidency in 2007 is VP Atiku's to lose. 
End Summary. 
 
 
Governor Bukola Saraki 
---------------------- 
 
 
2. (SBU) Governor Saraki is in his forties and comes from a 
private sector background, having worked in his father's bank 
(Societe Generale) for several years.  He studied in London 
and attained a degree in general practice medicine, the same 
degree as his father.  He is a Muslim.  Prior to his election 
as Governor, he had never held political office.  His father, 
former Senator Olu Saraki, is much better known and is widely 
regarded as the political godfather and kingmaker in the 
state.  Olu Saraki has run for President three times, 
handpicked the last two governors of Kwara State, as well as 
arranged for his daughter to be elected to the Senate in 
April. 
 
 
100 Days 
-------- 
 
 
3. (U) Saraki made sure to demonstrate the steps he has 
already taken to improve life in his state.  He stated that 
there were more than 1000 non-functioning water well 
boreholes in the state when he took office, and his 
administration has already repaired/refurbished 200 of them. 
He also mentioned an ambitious goal of creating 1000 farms in 
the state on a sharecropping basis -- the government would 
rent out the land in exchange for a cut of the sale of 
produce.  He claimed to have cleaned up the capital, Ilorin, 
and fixed the majority of potholes.  The city was indeed 
cleaner than it had been during Poloff's March visit, but 
potholes were still there in many places. 
 
 
Future Goals 
------------ 
 
 
4. (U) Saraki firmly believes that private investment is the 
panacea for all of Nigeria's problems.  He raised as an 
example the pending importation ban on rice in 2006, stating 
that the GON should invite foreign companies to build 
factories here in advance of the ban instead of just hoping 
domestic industry will take advantage of the opening and 
blossom.  Saraki bemoaned the fact that Kwara is only 34th 
among Nigeria's 36 states in revenue allocation from 
Nigeria's Federal Government, and is determined to invite 
outside investment directly.  A new flourmill of the Dangote 
group was one result.  In order to keep that investment and 
create even more jobs, Saraki has also commissioned the 
building of a factory to produce the flour bags, and an 
increase in the number of trucks available for hauling the 
flour out of state.  The Governor also stated that all trucks 
driving north from Lagos have to pass through Ilorin, and he 
is also looking to increase the number of petrol stations and 
the quality of the hotels in order to get drivers to stop and 
stay in the city. 
 
 
Farmers From Zimbabwe and South Africa 
-------------------------------------- 
 
 
5. (U) Contrary to media reports, Kwara State will not be 
accepting groups of dispossessed white farmers from Zimbabwe 
and South Africa as refugees.  Five farmers representing a 
larger farming investment group in the two countries visited 
Kwara recently in order to assess the investment climate. 
Two specialized in cattle rearing, one in chicken farming, 
and two in vegetable farming.  Saraki discussed their coming 
to Kwara to build a chicken and cattle rearing industry. 
Kwara State would provide land and tax breaks in exchange for 
a plant and technological know-how.  According to Saraki, 
Kwara receives significantly more rainfall and has a better 
overall climate for all types of farming than does South 
Africa. 
 
 
Education 
--------- 
6. (U) Another focus for Saraki is education.  He expressed 
dissatisfaction with the local Koranic schools, stating that 
they had seriously declined in the past decade and now are 
not teaching English, Math and the Sciences at an appropriate 
level for their students to succeed.  Saraki claimed that 
only ten percent of graduating secondary school students in 
Ilorin are able to qualify for entrance to the University of 
Ilorin.  In addition to requiring stricter standards, Saraki 
has begun shutting down non-registered "bush" schools around 
the state capital. 
 
 
National Issues 
--------------- 
 
 
7. (SBU) PolOff also discussed several national issues with 
the Governor to get his perspective and gauge the involvement 
of a fairly representative governor.  On the coup against the 
governor of Anambra state, Saraki agreed that the situation 
had made all the governors nervous.  He was not especially 
worried for himself, as he feels he has complete control of 
Kwara.  Saraki believes that there will be a "test" 
constitutional amendment soon on one or another relatively 
minor issue so the PDP can judge whether its overwhelming 
majority in the National Assembly and among the governors is 
capable of gaining more substantial changes to the 
constitution.  Saraki also believes that the National 
Assembly currently has little to no real power to oppose the 
President on any issue and that this situation will continue 
as long as the current Assembly leadership is in place. 
 
 
8. (SBU) On the 2007 elections, Saraki believes that the 
Presidency is Atiku's to lose.  He said Atiku had played the 
role of conciliatory mother to Obasanjo's stern 
disciplinarian father in relationships with the governors, 
and had earned many points around the country.  Saraki also 
believes that Obasanjo will not support any single candidate 
in the 2007 presidential election, even his own PDP's 
candidate, but will rather try to remain neutral in order to 
create the image of national statesman for himself. 
MEECE