US embassy cable - 03KUWAIT4613

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 004613 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARP, NEA/RA, DRL, G/IWI, INR/NESA, INR/B 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KWMN, KISL, ETRD, PINR, KU 
SUBJECT: (C) SPEAKER KHORAFI PREDICTS INCREMENTAL PROGRESS 
ON WOMEN'S RIGHTS, IS RECEPTIVE TO MEPI COOPERATION 
 
Classified By: AMB. RICHARD H. JONES; REASON 1.5 (D) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  National Assembly Speaker Jassem al-Khorafi 
told the Ambassador October 6 the Government should be able 
to muster a majority in the Assembly, but it will only become 
clear after parliament reconvenes later this month whether 
the Assembly (elected in July) will be more or less 
cooperative than the previous one.  Khorafi expected the 
Government to push women's rights incrementally, by seeking 
to start with voting/election rights at municipal level.  He 
was open to the Ambassador's suggestions about MEPI 
cooperation, specifically regarding economic reforms and 
possible establishment of a parliamentary research service. 
He suggested that the US also consider working with 
parliaments on a GCC-wide basis.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) COUNTING HEADS:  The Ambassador, accompanied by Pol 
Chief (Notetaker), met with National Assembly Speaker Jassem 
al-Khorafi October 6 to preview the first session of the new 
Assembly (elected July 5), which will begin later this month. 
 Khorafi thought the Government could find the new Assembly 
"tough," though this would only become clear once the 
parliament was in session.  The aggressive talk by some MPs 
during the summer recess was mainly posturing for media 
attention.  The first message to be drawn from the election 
results, Khorafi said, was that the people want results, "not 
loud voices."  He noted that 18 of the 50 elected members are 
new, and 6 were not in the last Assembly, though they have 
served prior terms.  Khorafi reckoned there are now five main 
groups in parliament:  Popular Action Bloc - 6; Islamists 
10-11; Liberals - 5-6; Independents - "about 10"; 
pro-Government "service deputies" - "about 8."  (NOTE: 
Political parties are forbidden, so all candidates are 
officially self-selected, though many enjoy overt or discreet 
support from de-facto parties. There are several other valid 
ways of categorizing MPs, and Khorafi's breakdown only totals 
about 40.  One of the 50 elected members, Ahmed Baqer, is 
Minister of Justice.  He and the other 15 members of the 
Cabinet are considered ex-officio members of parliament.  In 
order to pass legislation, the Government needs a total of 33 
votes, i.e. it needs the support of 17 of the 49 elected 
members besides the Minister of Justice.  It can generally 
count on the service deputies, especially if it makes clear 
that it really cares about a particular bill.  Thus, it only 
needs about 10 additional votes; for bills advancing a 
progressive agenda, the likeliest supporters are liberals and 
some independents, and the most likely opponents are the 
Islamists and the Popular Action Bloc.  END NOTE.) 
 
3.  (C) ONUS ON GOVT.:  Khorafi (generally seen as a 
Pro-Government Independent) put the onus on the Government to 
show the capability and seriousness of purpose to coordinate 
effectively with parliament.  One way to show seriousness, in 
his view, was for the Government to refer issues to the 
constitutional court when the Assembly challenged its 
prerogatives (i.e. rather than just shelving the issues). 
Khorafi predicted that if, after one or two years, Prime 
Minister Shaykh Sabah were to conclude the National Assembly 
was unmanageable, it would likely be dissolved (by the Amir, 
Shaykh Sabah's brother) and new elections held. 
 
4.  (C) WOMEN'S RIGHTS:  The Speaker did not think women's 
rights would be a big political problem for the Government: 
if it fails to obtain passage of legislation granting women 
political rights, "it can say it tried its best."  (COMMENT: 
This remark implies that Khorafi does not think the 
Government has much at stake in succeeding on this issue. 
END COMMENT.)  The first test for the Government, he said, 
would come when the Assembly considered the Amiri decree 
dissolving the Municipal Council and holding up elections 
pending a new law currently being drafted.  If parliament 
rejected the decree outright, that would be "an embarrassment 
for the Government."  If it accepted the decree but inserted 
amendments (in the new law) not to the Government's liking, 
there would be no embarrassment.  Khorafi said he had not 
seen the draft law, but understood it would change the 
structure of the Council, differentiate between the executive 
and legislative functions, and give women the same right to 
vote and be elected as men.  He thought the Government was 
being "wise" to try to make incremental progress on women's 
rights, instead of making a frontal assault on the Islamists' 
strongly held view that their religion forbids giving 
"wilaya" (governing power, as that of a ruler or judge) to 
women.  He explained that whereas the National Assembly is a 
form of wilaya, the municipality is not, therefore the 
Islamists' main objection to women's rights does not apply to 
municipal-affairs legislation.  Khorafi stressed that he 
always counsels against attacking traditions directly, 
because that only increases resistance -- it is far more 
effective to work around the edges quietly, gradually 
building up faits-accomplis that undermine resistance.  He 
cited the example of satellite dishes, which were initially 
condemned as agents of moral corruption but have now become 
so ubiquitous that they are no longer an issue.  If the 
Government tried to ram through full political rights for 
women all at once, even most of the service deputies would 
balk, because it would hurt them with their constituents. 
Starting with municipal elections was a good way to prepare 
the way for the future. 
 
5.  (C) OTHER CONTROVERSIAL ISSUES:  Other controversial 
issues the Speaker cited: 
 
-- An initiative by some MPs to increase the maximum amount 
of GOK-subsidized housing loans, which he predicted the 
Government would oppose; 
-- Kuwaitization of the work-force, including stiff fines for 
employers who do not meet the mandatory quota of Kuwaiti 
employees (two percent).  He explained:  if a company had 
3,000 employees, 60 of them should be Kuwaitis; if only 20 
are Kuwaitis, the company should pay a fine of 500 Kuwaiti 
Dinars (about $1,650) multiplied by the shortfall, in this 
case 40.  The Government is now saying a reduced fine of KD 
100 should apply to all the non-Kuwaiti employees, in this 
case 2,980.  "We say the Government is doing this on purpose, 
to have the private sector complain and therefore kill the 
law." 
 
6.  (C) U.S. INTERESTS:  In addition to women's rights, the 
Ambassador raised other US interests: 
 
-- Allowing foreign investment in the northern oil fields. 
Khorafi said the only issue is whether each agreement of this 
type with a foreign company needs to be a separate law, as 
the oil companies want, or whether all those agreements can 
be covered under one law, which would be much less of a 
burden and would enable faster progress. 
 
-- Economic reforms, including strengthening the copyright 
law.  The Speaker said new copyright legislation should 
present no problem. 
 
7.  (C) MEPI:  The Ambassador raised MEPI, stressing the 
Secretary's commitment and the new philosophy of building 
 
SIPDIS 
partnerships rather than doling out aid.  He proposed to work 
with the National Assembly on such activities as exploring 
Kuwaiti interest in establishing a body similar to the 
Congressional Research Service, explaining the intricacies of 
TIFA and reforms needed for the Free Trade Area to become a 
reality.  The Speaker said "we will look at this with 
interest."  He added that the GCC parliaments coordinate 
together at staff level, and encouraged the US to see how it 
could help.  To this end, he invited the Embassy to contact 
the National Assembly Director General.  The Ambassador 
accepted this suggestion, noting that MEPI has funds 
available for regional projects. 
 
8.  (C) FOREIGN POLICY:  Khorafi raised Guantanamo (septel), 
the Prime Minister's visit to Washington, Iraq, the Kuwaiti 
missing persons from the Iraqi occupation, and Israel-Syria. 
 
-- Prime Minister's visit:  he understood it had been very 
successful.  The Ambassador agreed, noting that he had been 
there.  He mentioned the decision to give Kuwait Major 
Non-NATO Ally status, and the willingness of both sides to 
enter talks for a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement 
(TIFA) as a first step on the road to a Free Trade Area. 
 
-- On Iraq, he urged the fastest possible transfer of 
authority to Iraqis.  The Ambassador assured him we are 
hoping to reach agreement on a new UNSCR before the Madrid 
conference, and explained that the Kay Report has been 
misportrayed in the media:  in fact, it documents that 
Saddam's regime was continuing to engage in prohibited 
activities. 
 
-- Kuwaiti Missing:  Khorafi remarked sadly that hopes of 
recovering the Kuwaiti missing alive have given way to the 
discovery of mass graves in Iraq.  The Ambassador briefed on 
progress in recovering remains through the Tripartite 
Commission (TPC) process (at least 36 positively identified 
to date), and noted that the next meeting of the TPC's 
Technical Sub-Committee (TSC) was scheduled for October 12 in 
Kuwait.  The Speaker pointed out that so far, none of the 
positively-identified remains are those of the 15-20 
"heavyweight" prisoners such as Assistant Undersecretary of 
the Interior Yusuf Meshari.  He wondered whether these 
high-value captives might have been kept alive as bargaining 
chips.  The Ambassador replied that he had held the same 
hope, but Saddam never tried to use them.  Khorafi rejoined 
that the same was true of Iranian prisoners who were 
unacknowledged for years, then suddenly released.  The 
Ambassador took the point, and said the question could be put 
to the Iraqi side at the TSC. 
 
-- On Israel-Syria, Khorafi urged the US not to veto a UNSC 
Resolution condemning Israel for its attack inside Syria, as 
that would "make it more difficult for your friends."  He 
asserted that Syria was "working hard on a good resolution; 
don't veto it."  The Ambassador reminded Khorafi of the state 
of US-Syrian relations and pointed out  that Syria has a 
record of refusing to work for a reasonable text, preferring 
to make us use our veto so as to embarrass us. 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT AND BIO NOTE:  Khorafi was unopposed for 
re-election as Speaker after the July elections.  His bottom 
line on the upcoming parliamentary session seems to be that 
if the Government tries hard enough, it can make headway, but 
it will have to work hard at it.  He conducted the meeting 
entirely in English, which he speaks quite serviceably, if 
not always grammatically -- he seemed to understand virtually 
everything, and only occasionally had to fish for words. 
JONES