US embassy cable - 03KATHMANDU1926

UNCLAS KATHMANDU 001926 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS, LONDON FOR POL/GURNEY, NSC FOR MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PTER, PGOV, PREL, NP, Maoist Insurgency 
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOISTS ONLY PARTIALLY HONOR PLEDGE TO 
CEASE-FIRE DURING DASAIN HOLIDAY 
 
REF: (A) KATHMANDU 1888 
 
     (B) KATHAMNDU 1836 
 
1. SUMMARY.  MAOISTS ONLY PARTIALLY HONORED THEIR PLEDGE 
TO "SUSPEND ALL OFFENSIVE ACTIONS" DURING THE OCTOBER 2 - 
10 DASAIN HOLIDAY.  REPORTS INDICATE THAT MAOISTS 
INTENTIONALLY TARGETED INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN SEVERAL 
LOCATIONS, WHILE CLASHES WITH SECURITY FORCES CONTINUED, 
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT ABATED.  A MILITARY SPOKESPERSON ON 
OCTOBER 1 OPINED THAT THE MAOISTS' UNILATERAL CEASE-FIRE 
WAS DUE TO WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE MOVEMENT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. ON SEPTEMBER 26, A PRESS STATEMENT SIGNED BY MAOIST 
LEADER PUSHPA KAMAL DAHAL, ALIAS PRACHANDA, DECLARED THAT 
THE INSURGENTS WOULD "SUSPEND ALL OFFENSIVE ACTIONS" 
DURING THE NATIONAL DASAIN HOLIDAY FROM OCTOBER 2-10 (REF 
A).  DESPITE THIS PLEDGE, ON OCTOBER 2, MAOISTS IN 
NAWALPARASI DISTRICT IN THE CENTRAL TERAI (SOUTHERN BELT), 
EXPLODED PRESSURE COOKER BOMBS IN TWO VACANT POLICE POSTS. 
LIKEWISE, INSURGENTS IN DADELDHURA DISTRICT IN FAR-WESTERN 
NEPAL DESTROYED A TELECOMMUNICATIONS REPEATER STATION THAT 
HAD RECENTLY BEEN RESTORED AFTER A PREVIOUS MAOIST ATTACK. 
ON OCTOBER 5, INSURGENTS IN TAPLEJUNG DISTRICT IN FAR- 
EASTERN NEPAL DESTROYED A SUSPENSION BRIDGE, ISOLATING 
TWELVE VILLAGE DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE (VDC) AREAS. 
 
3. IN ADDITION TO THE ATTACKS ON NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE, 
SECURITY FORCES AND MAOISTS HAVE CLASHED IN SEVERAL 
DISTRICTS.  ON OCTOBER 2, ONE SUSPECTED MAOIST WAS KILLED 
IN A CLASH IN DOLAKHA DISTRICT IN CENTRAL NEPAL AFTER 
SECURITY FORCES HAD ENTERED AN AREA TO RETRIEVE THE BODY 
OF A DEAD ROYAL NEPAL ARMY (RNA) SOLDIER.  ON OCTOBER 4, 
SECURITY FORCES REPORTEDLY KILLED SIX MAOISTS IN VARIOUS 
CLASHES IN FIVE DISTRICTS IN THE MID- AND FAR-WEST REGIONS 
OF NEPAL.  SIMILARLY, ON OCTOBER 6, MAOISTS AND SECURITY 
FORCES CLASHED IN RAUTAHAT DISTRICT IN THE CENTRAL TERAI, 
RESULTING IN THE DEATH OF TWO INSURGENTS. 
 
4.  ON OCTOBER 1, COLONEL DEEPAK GURUNG, RNA SPOKESPERSON, 
ATTRIBUTED THE MAOIST ANNOUNCEMENT OF A CEASE-FIRE TO 
THEIR LOSS OF STRENGTH.  "THE ARMY HAS MADE MANY GAINS 
WHILE THE REBELS HAVE FACED HEAVY CASUALTIES," HE CLAIMED. 
GURUNG ALSO ASSERTED THAT THE MAOISTS WERE FALTERING DUE 
TO LACK OF ARMS, POOR TRAINING AND LOW MORALE.  DESPITE 
THE MAOISTS' UNILATERAL CEASE-FIRE, SECURITY FORCES HAVE 
REMAINED ON HIGH-ALERT WITH NO LEAVE GRANTED TO SECURITY 
PERSONNEL DURING THE DASAIN HOLIDAY. 
 
5. COMMENT.  THE MAOISTS' PARTIAL CEASE-FIRE HAS REDUCED 
THE NUMBER AND SEVERITY OF VIOLENT INCIDENTS IN NEPAL SO 
FAR DURING DASAIN, THE COUNTRY'S MOST SIGNIFICANT 
RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY.  THE RNA'S ASSERTION THAT THE 9-DAY 
CEASE-FIRE DEMONSTRATES MAOIST WEAKNESS REMAINS TO BE 
SUBSTANTIATED, HOWEVER.  THE RNA ALSO CLAIMS THAT 300 
MAOISTS, AND ONLY 29 RNA SOLDIERS, HAVE BEEN KILLED SINCE 
THE CEASE-FIRE'S COLLAPSE ON AUGUST 27.  THIS CLAIMED 
MAOIST DEATH TOLL APPEARS SOMEWHAT INFLATED WHEN COMPARED 
TO PRESS REPORTS OF ROUGHLY 250 MAOIST DEATHS.  AN 
ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATION IS THAT THE CEASE-FIRE WAS A 
MAOIST PLOY TO IMPROVE ITS FALTERING PUBLIC IMAGE. 
HOWEVER, DESPITE RNA VICTORIES AGAINST THE INSURGENTS, THE 
MAOIST THREAT CONTINUES TO BE KEENLY FELT BY THE AVERAGE 
NEPALI AS DEMONSTRATED BY THE NEAR TOTAL OBSERVANCE OF THE 
MAOISTS' NATION-WIDE SHUTDOWN, OR "BANDH," IN LATE 
SEPTEMBER (REF B).   END COMMENT. 
 
MALINOWSKI