US embassy cable - 03ANKARA6272

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 006272 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MOPS, TU, IZ 
SUBJECT: AK GOVERNMENT CONFIDENT PARLIAMENT WILL APPROVE 
IRAQ TROOP DEPLOYMENT ON OCTOBER 7 
 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 6208 
     B. ANKARA 6160 
 
 
(U) Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch, E. O. 12958, reasons 
1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Turkey's cabinet-equivalent Council of 
Ministers adopted and sent to the Parliament on October 6 a 
motion for the dispatch of Turkish troops to Iraq.  Ruling 
Justice and Development (AK) Party parliamentarians and even 
one opposition parliamentarian expressed confidence the 
measure would be approved on October 7.  The motion sets a 
renewable one-year limit on the deployment but does not 
specify the deployment date, number of troops or deployment 
location, all of which will be left for the Turkish military 
to discuss with the U.S.  End Summary. 
 
 
Council of Ministers Sends Measure to Parliament 
 
 
2.  (U) On October 6, Turkey's Council of Ministers approved 
and sent to Parliament a motion for "permission" to send 
troops to Iraq.  AK government spokesman Cemil Cicek said 
Parliament would probably vote on the motion on October 7. 
The motion sets a renewable one-year limit to the deployment 
but does not specify the deployment date, number of troops or 
deployment location. 
 
 
PM's Parliamentary Advisors Confident 
 
 
3.  (C) AK parliamentarians Saban Disli and Egemen Bagis, 
both foreign policy advisors to PM Erdogan expressed "100% 
confidence" the measure would pass.  They noted that the 
"permission" was flexible and did not require approval by 
President Sezer, who recently reiterated his opposition to 
the deployment (ref A).  Other AK-connected political 
advisors and even one opposition People's Republican Party 
(CHP) deputy also said they believed the measure would pass. 
 
 
4.  (C) Disli and Bagis said PM Erdogan would be present for 
the vote, which would be conducted in a "closed session, open 
voting" format, meaning that AK parliamentarians who voted to 
oppose the measure would have to do so facing Erdogan.  Bagis 
estimated 30 AK parliamentarians would vote no, giving the AK 
a comfortable majority. 
 
 
5.  (C) Grassroots opinion appears ready to support the 
deployment if the AK government leads.  Embassy Political 
Counselor, currently traveling in Turkey's northeastern 
provinces of Artvin and Rize, found that local AK party 
organizations had public backing on the troop issue, similar 
to central Anatolian provinces Konya and Karaman (ref B). 
 
 
Details to Be Handed Over to Military 
 
 
6.  (C)  Comment:  Disli and Bagis said decisions about the 
number of troops, their location, the date of deployment, and 
other details would be "handed over to the military" and 
bureaucracy to discuss with the U.S. since they are "purely 
military things."  Even if the measure is approved, we 
believe a lot of hard work remains before the deployment 
becomes reality.  End Comment. 
 
 
7.  (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
 
 
EDELMAN