US embassy cable - 03LAGOS2060

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002060 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON, ELAB, PGOV, SOCI, NI 
SUBJECT: THE IMPENDING STRIKE:  THE VIEW FROM LAGOS 
 
1.  (SBU) The looming showdown between the unions and the GON 
over fuel deregulation in Nigeria is about more than the fuel 
price.  Anecdotal comments from people in Lagos tell us they 
are very angry about the way the price increase was 
implemented without any direct announcement, as if the 
government was hoping citizens wouldn\'t notice.  As one 
officer of a civil society organization said, \"it was done in 
the most annoying way possible.\"  We\'re told it somehow seems 
symptomatic of the general disrespect on the part of 
President Obasanjo for the Nigerian people (\"he treats us 
like we\'re harlots:  use, then ignore,\" said one political 
contact).  The issue also brings focus to strongly held 
feelings about the corruption and unfairness of Nigerian 
society.  One worker said \"poor people like us are pressed 
for every last Naira for fuel, while retired generals smuggle 
whole tanker loads of it.\"  This being Obasanjo\'s last term, 
we have been told a number of times, a massive money grab is 
underway by the rich, and increasing the fuel price must have 
something to do with it. 
 
 
 
 
NUPENG and PENGASSEN 
-------------------- 
 
 
2.  (SBU) Acting Econ Chief and visiting INR officer saw the 
presidents of both petroleum unions NUPENG and PENGASSEN 
midday Friday October 3.  Neither union is as yet committed 
to a strike, but NUPENG President Peter Akpatason was more 
forward leaning (\"...all signals indicate a strike\"). 
PENGASSEN President Ogbeifun Louis Brown said its strike 
policy would be determined by its umbrella organization, the 
TUC, which will meet the week of October 6 (date TBD). 
NUPENG\'s strike position will most likely be locked in 
Saturday, October 4, when the NLC meets in Ibadan.  Although 
they are members of different umbrella labor groups, the 
positions of the two unions had much in common.  The 
interests at stake for both are much broader than the price 
increase itself.  Both referred us to a two-part \"ultimatum\" 
they have given the GON:  (1) one week to respond to their 
request for a dialogue on petroleum policy, and (2) an 
explanation of the government\'s position on \"the issues of 
price adjustment, maintenance of the refineries, ports and 
other infrastructural development in the downstream sector as 
well as the planned privatization of NNPC...\" 
 
 
3.  (SBU) We asked both unions what the threat conveyed in 
the ultimatum actually was; the text refers to \"any action we 
might deem fit...,\" but neither could tell us what \"action\" 
that might be.  Despite outraged references by both unions to 
the price hike, both were quite prepared to see substantially 
higher prices if that is what it would take to make domestic 
Nigerian refineries viable.  The clearly evident bottom line 
was to secure the employment of their members in the 
refineries.  If the public had to pay above market rates in 
consequence, so be it.  It was noteworthy that neither union 
president knew what current world prices for petroleum 
products are, nor what prices in other west African countries 
are (in both cases, much higher than in Nigeria). 
 
 
The Yoruba View 
--------------- 
 
 
4.  (SBU) Acting Econ Chief and visiting INR officer also 
visited a senior officer in Afenifere, the principal Yoruba 
organization, for his views on the impending strike.  He was 
about to leave for the midday meeting between Lagos\' civil 
society organizations and the NLC, but told us that on Monday 
the country \"would be ungovernable,\" and that violence would 
break out far more quickly than it did in July.  The \"area 
boys\" (street thugs) would take immediate advantage of the 
situation to loot vehicles and make travel impossible.  For 
him too, the point of the confrontation with the government 
was not really the price increase, but rather rampant 
corruption and Obasanjo\'s dismissive attitude toward the 
public.  He worried, though, that a serious confrontation 
could be employed by the military to return to power, with 
some real public support. 
 
 
Danfos 
------ 
 
 
5.  (U) There is in addition a brand new irritant:  the 
banning from Victoria and Ikoyi Islands (in daylight hours) 
of danfos, the dilapidated orange minivans on which the 
overwhelming majority of Lagos residents depend.  In their 
place is an as yet limited fleet of city buses.  From the 
narrow, technocratic perspective of the transportation 
planner this may make sense; lots of small, noisy vehicles 
replaced by large buses, fares paid to thousands of 
individual operators replaced by fares paid to a state 
operation.  The timing, however, reflects an almost surreally 
bad sense of judgement; the ban was implemented on the same 
day as the fuel price increase, and now disgruntled crowds 
gather at the control points where the danfos are halted 
waiting for onward transportation that will cost nearly twice 
as much.  Not nearly enough buses are available yet. 
 
 
HINSON-JONES