US embassy cable - 03RANGOON1264

UNCLAS RANGOON 001264 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV 
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY 
TREASURY FOR OASIA JEFF NEIL 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, BM, National Convention 
SUBJECT: SECOND NATIONAL CONVENTION COMMITTEE 
"RECONSTITUTED" 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 1259 
     B. RANGOON 1093 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: By reviving a second defunct National 
Convention planning committee, and staffing it with 
government officials, the Burmese regime is moving nearer to 
realizing step one of its seven part democracy plan. 
Participation of ethnic minority, and other opposition 
groups, is still nowhere in evidence.  Packing these 
committees with rubber stampers, and refusing to discuss 
modalities of a constitutional convention with any outsiders, 
may expedite the "successful" re-convening of the National 
Convention.  However, the farther down the road the GOB goes 
without any buy-in from the opposition, the less chance of 
the SPDC democracy road map leading to any meaningful 
political change.  End summary. 
 
SPDC Gives Itself a Push 
 
2. (U) Burma's ruling State Peace and Development Council 
(SPDC) announced on October 2nd that it would "reconstitute" 
the National Convention Convening Work Committee (NCCWC) as 
part of its 7-step "road map" to democracy.  The first of 
these steps is the re-convening of the National Convention, 
which was suspended in 1996.  The Committee's been staffed 
with 35 members, including three active duty military and 
three ex-military, and a member of the Union Solidarity 
Development Association Central Executive Committee.  There 
were no members of ethnic or other opposition groups named to 
the Committee.  The NCCWC will be chaired by U Aung Toe, the 
country's chief justice. 
 
3. (U) The NCCWC was first formed in 1992, but has been 
defunct since the National Convention was suspended in 1996. 
The purpose of the Committee is to offer administrative 
support to National Convention delegates -- such as arranging 
transportation and publishing services. 
 
4. (U) The reformation of the NCCWC comes on the heels of the 
regime's naming of 18 members to the National Convention 
Convening Commission (NCCC) -- the body responsible for 
organizing and ultimately re-convening the National 
Convention (see Ref B).  Like the nominees to the NCCWC, the 
initial members of the reinvigorated Convening Commission are 
all affiliated with the regime -- the Chairman is SPDC 
Secretary-2, Lt. General Thein Sein.  However, the NCCWC 
 
SIPDIS 
members, with a few exceptions, are at first blush not 
political hardliners, but senior civil servants in various 
logistical, information, and technical fields. 
 
Comment: Where's the Opposition? 
 
5. (SBU) It is discouraging to see the regime steadily march 
toward achieving step one of its democratization plan without 
including of any ethnic or other opposition group members. 
Though this strategy of exclusion may speed up "progress," it 
will scuttle any chance that it might lead to some genuine 
democratic reform.  As reported in Ref A, the major lesson 
from UN Special Envoy's recent visit was that the SPDC's road 
map could work, but only if both the government and 
opposition participated freely and equally in all stages. 
Unfortunately, Razali felt that the senior SPDC leadership 
had no immediate intention to allow this.  The SPDC's 
subsequent naming of a second all-GOB National Convention 
body offers some concrete proof that his assessment is 
correct. 
Martinez