US embassy cable - 03SANTODOMINGO5390

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTO DOMINGO 005390 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AID 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2013 
TAGS: DR, EAID, PGOV, PINR, PREL 
SUBJECT: VICE PRESIDENT FAULTS PRESIDENT MEJIA, ADDRESSES 
CAMPAIGN ISSUES 
 
 
Classified By: Charge Lisa Kubiske for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Dominican Vice President and candidate for 
president Milagros Ortiz-Bosch told DCM Kubiske September 26 
that President Mejia cannot win re-election next May because 
of his unpopularity and voter opposition to a second 
consecutive term.  She agreed with Mejia's vision and 
policies, but faulted him, in her view, for lack of strategy, 
failure to communicate his administration's considerable 
accomplishments, and poor economic management.  She portrayed 
herself as clean (uncorrupted) and statesmanlike, in contrast 
to other candidates in the field such as Leonel Fernandez of 
the PLD.  With respect to electricity, Ortiz-Bosch said the 
GODR would seek assistance from expert consultants on how to 
conduct a tender to attract strong bidders, including from 
the United States, to invest in two distribution companies 
recently returned to government hands.  End summary.  End 
summary. 
 
Unpopularity of President Mejia 
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2. (C) GODR Vice President and presidential candidate 
Milagros Ortiz-Bosch (PRD), at a luncheon hosted on September 
26 by DCM Kubiske with several of Ortiz-Bosch's political 
advisers and emboffs, asserted that President Mejia could not 
win his controversial bid for reelection in May 2004. 
According to Ortiz-Bosch, Mejia -- beset by the Dominican 
Republic's pressing economic problems and accusations of 
mismanagement and corruption -- lacks the necessary public 
support.  Moreover, voters and especially the PRD rank and 
file reject presidential reelection, regardless of candidate, 
even though the PRD-dominated Congress amended the 
constitution last year to allow this.  She said that a poll 
commissioned by the PRD and conducted by a US firm in 
mid-September found that 79 percent of voters reject Mejia's 
reelection, while only 18 percent support it.  Also, 55 
percent expressed disapproval of presidential reelection in 
principle.  The PRD has commissioned a second poll on these 
issues. 
 
Quest for PRD Nomination 
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3. (C) The Vice President stressed the importance of holding 
the already announced "plebiscite" of PRD members October 12, 
organized at the behest of the seven would-be candidates 
challenging President Mejia for the party's nomination, so as 
to test rank-and-file sentiment on the reelection issue.  She 
said the plebiscite would be in the tradition of the PRD as 
"the most democratic political party in Latin America."  The 
results of the plebiscite and the polls would then be aired 
at a proposed PRD nominating convention November 2.  Asked 
how the fractious party could win the election, Ortiz-Bosch 
expressed confidence that unity would be achieved through 
internal negotiations, and she dismissed President Mejia's 
call for arbitration by the Central Electoral Board (JCE). 
She predicted that if the PRD unifies behind a single 
alternative candidate, its poll numbers will immediately gain 
8-10 percent over Mejia's low approval ratings. 
 
Mejia's Shortcomings 
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4. (C) Ortiz-Bosch faulted President Mejia for poor economic 
management, lack of strategy, and failure to communicate with 
the public on the administration's considerable 
accomplishments in agriculture and rural development, labor, 
tourism, education, environment, water and sanitation, and 
housing.  She said she agrees with Mejia's political vision 
and his policies, but believes he has not followed through on 
campaign promises and has not allocated enough resources to 
human development programs.  She claimed the local press has 
felt "intimidated" for the past several months and has 
practiced self-censorship, including restricting publication 
of unspecified opinion poll data.  Acknowledging the impact 
of external events (9/11, a sluggish world economy, oil price 
increases), the Vice President nonetheless accused Mejia of 
failing to manage what he could control locally, such as the 
massive BANINTER bank fraud and problems in the energy sector. 
 
5. (C) Ortiz-Bosch emphasized the need for a long-term 
government strategy, carried out through a multi-year budget 
with annual performance targets.  It would give priority to 
investments in human capital through education, health, and 
social services.  The government should do more to promote 
citizen participation in the political process, with an 
effective communication program that would go beyond 
President Mejia's near-monopoly of statements to the media. 
Official pressures for media self-censorship should cease, 
she said.  The Vice President commented that Dominican 
society over the years has become better informed, more 
pro-democracy, and less tolerant of behind-the-scenes 
manipulation. 
 
Main Adversary - Leonel Fernandez 
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6. (C) Asked how the PRD would attack its main adversary in 
the coming elections, former president (1996-2000) Leonel 
Fernandez of the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD), the Vice 
President said she would take him to task for having 
concentrated 80 percent of government expenditures in the 
capital city of Santo Domingo and the second city of Santiago 
and having provided only 20 percent to the rest of the 
country.  She noted that the Mejia administration had 
reversed that ratio and restored a more balanced allocation. 
One of Ortiz-Bosch's advisers said that if she were to become 
the PRD candidate, she could accuse Fernandez of being 
corrupt, but he could not credibly make any such allegations 
against her. 
 
Progress on USAID Projects 
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7. (C) The Vice President, who is also State Secretary of 
Education, commented that a civil service reform for public 
school teachers, including unified benefits and higher 
salaries, was nearly complete.  She expressed appreciation 
for USAID collaboration in publicizing essential information 
of the Secretariat of Education on a world-wide web page, 
enhancing transparency. 
 
8. (C) Ortiz-Bosch, as chairperson of a committee to 
implement the new Dominican criminal procedures code, said 
that she had requested a budget for implementation beginning 
in 2004 and had asked the Justice Secretariat to help her 
convene regular working sessions of the committee.  She also 
reaffirmed her commitment to justice reform, dating from her 
years as a senator when she had worked on a reform bill. 
Priorities in her view include more training for judges and 
courtroom prosecutors ("fiscales"), inter alia to reduce 
their susceptibility to corruption, and a big increase in 
number of public defenders. 
 
9. (C) Anticipating the GODR's renationalization of two 
electricity distribution companies on October 1, Ortiz-Bosch 
raised the urgency of announcing a new tender of the 
companies' shares for private purchase.  She said the GODR 
would seek assistance from expert consultants on how to 
conduct the tender so as to attract the best possible 
bidders, from the United States and other countries. 
 
Comment 
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10. (C) The Vice President is walking a tightrope, being both 
a senior member of President Mejia's administration and one 
of his most credible challengers for the PRD nomination for 
the presidency.  She appears nonetheless committed to the PRD 
plebiscite and November 2 national convention, which Mejia 
has rejected in favor of a national convention (without 
plebiscite) on November 23. 
 
11. (C) Mejia's rivals in the PRD fear that his expected use 
-- or misuse -- of government resources to promote his 
candidacy and his control of the upper levels of the party 
will enable him to have his way, dooming the PRD to defeat in 
the election.  This is a plausible, though not inevitable, 
scenario.  Were his PRD challengers to unite behind a single 
candidate, they might be able to thwart his bid for the 
nomination.  But they have not yet shown the will to do so. 
In any case, it is premature to predict what will happen in 
the election next May.  Mejia has announced that according to 
a poll conducted o/a September 20, the PRD had pulled ahead 
of the PLD in voter preferences by a 5-percentage-point 
margin. 
 
12. (C) With regard to the Vice President's desire to 
contract expert consultants on energy sector privatization, 
Embassy is exploring possibilities with the World Bank, IDB, 
and AID. 
 
Bio Note 
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13. (U) The first Dominican woman to assume presidential 
duties, Ortiz-Bosch has acted as president for 135 days 
during Mejia's 38 trips abroad and, along with Minister of 
Tourism Rafael "Fello" Subervi, is widely recognized as one 
of the most potent alternatives for the PRD nomination. 
KUBISKE