US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2550

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 GUATEMALA 002550 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, KDEM, PHUM, PREL, GT 
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: OAS CRITICIZES ELECTORAL 
VIOLENCE; BERGER MAINTAINS LEAD IN POLLS 
 
Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  The OAS Electoral Observation Mission (EOM) 
issued its second report, criticizing the GOG's failure to 
investigate and prosecute electoral violence, especially the 
murders of political activists and the violent FRG protests 
of July.  On October 1, the OAS EOM opened offices in seven 
provinces.  Ten parties joined together to criticize recently 
published polls which show them trailing the GANA coalition, 
and in some cases the FRG.  The ex-PAC continue to protest 
against Rios Montt holding rallies in their communities. 
Every party has its own poll, though all the polls, including 
the FRG's, put Oscar Berger ahead.  FRG candidate for Mayor 
of Guatemala City Rabbe was disqualified by the Registry of 
Citizens, setting off another legal battle which could force 
the FRG out of the race for Mayor of the capital. Berger's 
chief of staff told us that there is a chance Berger will win 
on the first round, but a greater chance that he will face 
off against Rios Montt or Colom in a second round.  GANA does 
not believe electoral fraud will be significant.  The 
Ambassador received assurances from the FRG that they will 
respect the outcome of the election, even if unfavorable. 
end summary. 
 
OAS calls on GOG to investigate electoral violence 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
2. (C) Former President Valentin Paniagua, head of the OAS 
Electoral Observation Mission, gave reporters a copy of the 
second OAS EOM report on September 29, in which the OAS 
criticizes the lack of investigation and prosecution of cases 
of possible electoral violence.  The report notes that 20 
political party activists have been murdered since the 
convocation of elections in May, and that none of the cases 
has been successfully investigated, much less prosecuted, by 
the GOG.  It goes on to say that no legal action has been 
taken against any of the participants in the violent protests 
organized by the FRG on July 24-25 in which one reporter 
died, several people were injured and property was destroyed. 
 In a closed conversation with the Ambassadors of the Donor 
Dialogue Group, made up of representatives of donor nations 
and international organizations, the OAS EOM representative 
said that their preliminary investigations suggest that most 
of the 20 murders were not politically related -- half of 
them are of ANN party members from Chiquimula who are 
believed to have been killed in a fight between rival 
organized crime gangs; two of the murders are of PAN 
candidates that even the PAN have told us were not 
politically motivated; and at least two of the murders of UNE 
activists are clearly attributed to common crime.  MINUGUA 
confirmed that their analysis of the 20 murders coincides 
with that of the OAS.  There is little doubt that some of the 
murders were politically motivated, however, and the lack of 
investigation and prosecution of any of the cases creates the 
perception that the GOG is tolerating political violence. 
 
3. (U) The OAS EOM has brought the first contingent of 
foreign observers into the country and has announced that it 
will open offices in the Departments of Coban, Zacapa, Peten, 
Quezaltenango, Solola, Huehuetenango and Quiche by October 1. 
 They announced that they would have 100 observers blanketing 
the country on election day.  The Embassy meets several times 
a week with the OAS EOM, and will be providing a security 
briefing for its members on October 2, at the OAS's request. 
 
4. (C) The OAS and MINUGUA have both issued statements 
calling for greater political tolerance, after mobs of former 
civil patrol members, who argue the FRG did not comply with 
its commitment to compensate all of them for the service 
during the internal conflict, have created disturbances at 
some of Rios Montt's campaign rallies in the countryside. 
Groups of angry ex-PACs threatened a Rios Montt rally in 
Nebaj (Quiche), kept the General from campaigning in two 
towns in San Marcos, and have threatened to disrupt his 
rallies in other areas, including the town of Chicacao, where 
the former PAC's burned the municipal building in June.  The 
GOG's decision in late September to assign 70 million 
Quetzales (roughly $9 million) to Peten ex-PAC leader Rosenda 
Perez (for economic development programs in the Peten) 
infuriated other PAC leaders, and has led to renewed threats 
to disrupt his campaign rallies.  MINUGUA Chief Tom Koenigs 
told the Donor Dialogue Group that, despite his personal 
antipathy for Rios Montt, he believes that it is important 
that MINUGUA oppose all political intolerance, noting that if 
the FRG were keeping other candidates from holding campaign 
rallies as has happened to them, the whole international 
community would be outraged. 
 
Every party has its own poll 
---------------------------- 
5. (U)  Ten presidential candidates representing the smaller 
parties competing in the election (all but the FRG and GANA) 
held a news conference in late September to complain that the 
polls that are appearing in the press intentionally 
underestimate their support, and argued that this is a 
strategy to favor the GANA and FRG candidates who have more 
influence with segments of the media.  In response, one daily 
(Siglo XXI) printed the "polls" of the PAN, UNE and Unionista 
parties on October 1.  Their results did not differ greatly 
from the professional polls on the percentage of the vote 
that Berger, Rios Montt and Colom would get, but each placed 
their own candidate significantly higher than other polls, 
giving them a big portion of the undecided vote.  Following 
are the results: 
 
-                 UNE poll        PAN poll      Unionista poll 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
Berger - GANA       37%             27%             35% 
Colom - UNE         22              20              14 
Rios Montt - FRG    12              13              10 
Lopez - PAN          7              18               7 
Garcia - Unionista   6               8              13 
 
6. (U) The San Carlos University (public) and Rafael Landivar 
University (Jesuit) polled their students in September 
regarding their presidential preferences.  Radio Sonora also 
polled its public in September.  These are "user" polls, and 
are not intended to be scientific samples.  We list the 
latest Prensa Libre poll (which purports to be from a 
scientific sample) for comparison.  Following are the results 
of these polls: 
 
-                 Prensa Libre  Radio Sonora   USAC     URL 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
Berger - GANA         38%           67%         35%     67% 
Colom - UNE           18            16          22      15 
Rios Montt - FRG      11             8           4       2 
Lopez - PAN            5             7           7       2 
Garcia - Unionista     3             1           8       5 
 
7. (C) President Portillo told Ambassador Hamilton in early 
September that the FRG's polls showed Berger ahead with 32%, 
but followed closely by Rios Montt with 23%.  The FRG is 
tight lipped with us about their polling numbers, saying 
(disingenuously, in our view) only that they are confident 
they will win overwhelmingly in the first round. 
 
Will the FRG accept defeat? 
--------------------------- 
8. (C) The violent FRG-led protests of July 24-25 generated 
concerns that the FRG is prepared to use violence if they are 
not pleased with the electoral outcome.  With all polls, 
including the FRG's, showing Rios Montt significantly behind 
Berger with only five weeks left in the election, there is a 
possibility that the FRG will not make it into the second 
round, and a very serious possibility that they will 
ultimately lose the election to Berger even if they do make 
it into the second round.  The Ambassador raised concerns 
about potential FRG refusal to accept the election results 
with Ambassador Antonio Arenales (FRG insider and 
congressional candidate) and Acting First Vice President of 
Congress Zury Rios on September 27.  Both assured him that 
the FRG will be respectful of the electoral outcome. 
Congresswoman Rios is seeking meetings in the Department on 
October 14 to discuss the FRG's vision of the electoral 
process, among other things. 
 
FRG Mayoral candidate disqualified to run 
----------------------------------------- 
9. (SBU) In late September the Registry of Citizens 
determined that the candidacy of Luis Rabbe for Mayor of 
Guatemala City, representing the FRG, was not valid, as he 
was selected by the FRG's National Convention, and not by the 
FRG's Municipal Convention, as required by the electoral law. 
 The FRG quickly filed an appeal, arguing that in the 1999 
election Rabbe had similarly been selected by the National 
Convention, and the Registry of Citizens had not objected. 
The Registry of Citizens responded that two wrongs don't make 
a right.  The appeal is being considered by the Supreme 
Electoral Tribunal, and could ultimately be appealed to the 
Constitutional Court.  With time fast running out, it is 
possible the FRG will not be on the mayoral ballot for 
Guatemala City.  FRG leaders have not responded publicly in 
defense of Rabbe, leading many of our contacts to conclude 
that the FRG may not be upset over Rabbe's troubles.  August 
polls placed him in fourth place for the mayoralty with 7% of 
the vote, behind Alvaro Arzu with 40%. 
 
GANA rules out significant fraud 
-------------------------------- 
10. (C) The Ambassador met with Eduardo Gonzalez, Campaign 
Chairman for GANA candidate Oscar Berger, on October 1. 
Gonzalez said that they just received a new poll which shows 
GANA candidate Berger sustaining his high levels of support 
in the final stretch of the campaign.  Gonzalez said there is 
a small chance that Berger could win in the first round, but 
said there is a much greater likelihood that Berger will have 
to face Rios Montt or Colom in a second round.  The poll 
results for Colom and Rios Montt are too close to speculate 
on which has a better chance, he commented, adding that GANA 
leaders do not believe fraud on election day will be 
significant.  He also opined that the intense international 
scrutiny being given to this campaign would make it difficult 
for the FRG to dispute the election results in the event they 
are defeated.  Gonzalez will be in Washington on October 
9-10, and is requesting a meeting with WHA DAS Fisk to 
discuss the elections and bilateral relations in the event 
Berger wins. 
 
11. (C) The Ambassador asked Gonzalez if GANA had the kind of 
communication with the FRG it needed to avoid violence and 
unproductive confrontations, offering the neutral ground of 
the Ambassador's Residence and our good offices for meetings 
between the two sides, if they could be useful to defuse 
tensions.  Gonzalez expressed appreciation for the offer, and 
said he would definitely keep it in mind.  He stated that 
there is not a lot of contact between the two sides, but at 
this time, the GANA prefers to keep it low key as anyone who 
meets with the FRG would automatically become suspect in the 
public's eyes.  He commented, however, that tensions could 
rise at any time (as they did in July), and that having the 
option of a neutral ground to meet with the FRG was 
important.  The Ambassador had earlier made a similar offer 
to Zury Rios, who responded similarly that it was an 
important offer to be able to draw on if the situation in the 
future should warrant it. 
 
Comment 
------- 
12. (C) Local concerns about electoral fraud have diminished 
significantly in recent weeks, after an aggressive Embassy 
campaign to publicize the secrecy of the vote and the 
guarantees in place.  The OAS EOM has also been effective in 
showing that it is prepared to take on the government (and 
the FRG) on issues of electoral violence.  The permanent 
presence of the OAS in the countryside, beginning October 1, 
will also have a calming effect at the provincial level.  The 
"concern of the day" among our Guatemalan contacts has become 
the fear that the FRG will not respect the outcome of the 
election.  We have received assurances from the FRG that they 
will respect the outcome, and will continue to raise this 
matter in all meetings with the FRG. 
HAMILTON