US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB2132

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ZAGREB 002132 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: WHO'S WHO IN CROATIAN POLITICS - AN ELECTION PRIMER 
 
Classified By: Poloff A.F.Godfrey for reasons 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) Croatia's next parliamentary elections are expected 
to take place on November 23.  For the uninitiated, the 
number of political parties, alliances and personalities 
might seem overwhelming.  At this stage in Croatia's 
democratic development, political parties are beginning to 
stake out distinct territory on the policy spectrum, but most 
voters still make their choices either by loyalty to a "brand 
name" or by identifying with the personalities at the top of 
a party's electoral list. 
 
2.  (C) This telegram is intended as a reference tool.  It 
provides a thumbnail sketch of some of the leading Croatian 
politicians expected to play a role in this parliamentary 
election.  The politicians are listed alphabetically in one 
of two groups -- ruling coalition and opposition parties. 
After results of the final USAID-sponsored IRI poll are 
released (on October 9), we will offer a primer on Croatia's 
political parties and their basic platforms, along with their 
ratings at the beginning of the sprint to the November 23 
election.  When the parliament is dissolved and elections 
finally called (expected in mid-October), we will offer a 
primer on the rules of the election game in Croatia. 
 
======================== 
Ruling Coalition Figures 
======================== 
 
3.  (C) Zeljka Antunovic (Age 48, Social Democratic Party - 
SDP)  As deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Defense, and Vice 
President of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) Antunovic is 
Croatia's undisputed leading woman politician.  Many were 
skeptical when she was appointed to be Croatia's first female 
Defense Minister in June 2002, but steady success on tough 
management issues like defense downsizing have turned heads. 
A pragmatic, engaging personality, she is expected to be a 
standard-bearer for the SDP as the campaign heats up.  Unlike 
Racan, Antunovic has no skeletons in her closet from the 
Communist League of Croatia, which gives SDP's centrist 
claims more credibility. 
 
4.  (C) Ivo Banac (Age 56, Liberal Party - LS) Well-liked by 
the few in Croatia who know him and mistrusted by the vast 
majority who do not, this outsider was a full-time professor 
at Yale before he won the presidency of the Liberal Party 
early in 2003.  His blunt approach has alienated some of the 
LS faithful, but his appreciation of U.S. policy is sometimes 
music to our ears.  We understand Banac is keeping his chair 
at Yale in reserve if (or when) things go poorly for LS at 
elections. 
 
5.  (C) Milan Bandic (Age 48, SDP)  An ambitious workaholic 
known in every corner in the capital, Bandic is a modern 
politician in the American style; no babies go unkissed an no 
ribbons are uncut without Bandic posing for the newspapers. 
He is in the middle of a political comeback from a drunk 
driving incident in early 2002, after which he had to step 
down from the Mayor's chair.  His popularity extends only as 
far as the Zagreb city limits, where hizzoner is expected to 
take back the mayor's chair when it comes open next.  Outside 
of Zagreb, Bandic could be a liability to the SDP and Racan 
may keep this one-time rival at arm's length. 
 
6.  (C) Radimir Cacic (Age 54, Croatian Peoples' Party -HNS) 
Rough-hewn and blunt-spoken, Cacic was rated as the "most 
efficient" Minister in the current government.  Cacic is 
given credit for the government's progress in building 
highways and housing.  A successful businessman both in and 
out of government, Cacic is viewed with suspicion by some 
observers for potential conflict of interest.  He is 
notorious for his careless statements; even his closest party 
colleagues say that he should just work, and not speak at 
all. 
 
7.  (C) Goran Granic (Age 53, Libra) The workhorse of the 
Racan government and Deputy Prime Minister for most of its 
term in office, Granic has become a liability for the 
coalition.  Granic's portfolio includes ICTY, returnee issues 
and intelligence oversight.  The longer he went on, the more 
the policy constraints imposed by the international community 
began to chafe.  While he recognizes how important it is for 
Croatia's future to cooperate with ICTY, he bristles at any 
negative characterization of the goals of Croatia's "homeland 
war."  In the past year, he became bitter, and took ICTY 
criticism of GoC shortcomings personally.  He alienated 
potential allies of GoC policy on more than one occasion when 
lashing out at perceived attackers. 
 
8.  (C) Ivan Jakovcic (Age 48, Istrian Democratic Union - 
IDS)  The Lord of Istria, Croatia's most-developed western 
region, Jakovcic cares little for politics in Zagreb. 
Jakovcic rules the IDS with an iron hand, while at the same 
time attempts to present the impression of an urbane, modern 
leader.  Jakovcic's political goals are simple: make the best 
 
political deal he can with Zagreb to ensure the most 
development and independence for Istria.  Too long in power, 
the IDS and Jakovcic personally are beset by scandals, one of 
which involves Jakovcic's purchase of an entire historic 
village. 
 
9.  (C) Damir Kajin (Age 41, IDS) The emissary of the Istrian 
party in Zagreb, Kajin is a loyal lieutenant of Jakovcic but 
regularly polls higher than his boss both in Istria and on 
the national level.  Kajin is an eloquent and frequent 
proponent of progressive policy choices from the floor of the 
parliament and often comes under fire from the nationalist 
right-wing.  An able scrapper, Kajin usually holds his own. 
Unlike Jakovcic, Kajin is widely viewed as a leader of high 
principles and integrity. 
 
10.  (C) Slavko Linic (Age 54, SDP)  This former long-time 
Mayor of Rijeka has played a key role in restructuring the 
Croatian economy as Racan's Deputy Prime Minister responsible 
for all things economic.  While basic economic indicators in 
Croatia are turning up, Linic is tainted with suspicion for 
all of the GoC's recent false starts on privatization.  Linic 
was much more popular while he was a successful mayor of an 
"opposition" city that defied the Tudjman government.  His 
national-level role as Croatia's official belt-tightener and 
his tough portfolio have hurt Linic's ratings.  The fact that 
he is intolerant of the media and at times even hostile to 
reporters doesn't help either. 
 
11.  (C) Stipe Mesic (Age 69, HNS?).  As President of 
Croatia, Mesic is supposed to remain above the political 
fray, but the nearer elections approach, the more likely it 
is that his HNS colors will show through.  With a year to go 
in his five-year term, Mesic remains popular and is trusted 
by the people and has become the conscience of Croatian 
politics. Mesic speaks in plain words and easily cuts to the 
heart of the matter.  His past affinity for the non-aligned 
movement sometimes leads him to make choices at odds with 
U.S. policy goals; his early, unmeasured statements against 
U.S. action in Iraq and his recent trip to Libya are 
examples.  These conflict with his positive statements 
encouraging refugee return, regional fence mending and 
cooperation with ICTY. 
 
12.  (C) Tonino Picula (Age 42, SDP).  Croatia's foreign 
minister draws most of his political influence from his 
absolute loyalty to his party boss, PM Racan.  At the same 
time, Racan's patronage is an obstacle for him to become a 
full-fledged leader.  Just before Picula's appointment almost 
four years ago, one of the winning coalition leaders told the 
Embassy that "Picula will be the foreign minister, but Racan 
will run foreign affairs."  Four years later, analysts argue 
this is still the case.  However, Croatian foreign policy 
achievements early on necessarily turned this former party 
secretary to a fairly popular national figure.  Picula's 
 
SIPDIS 
youthful approach and hardworking nature suggest he has a 
long political future. 
 
13.  (C) Vesna Pusic (Age 50, HNS).  A modern, sophisticated, 
charismatic leader, this former Georgetown professor has 
turned her one-time marginal Croatian People's Party into a 
serious player.  Her deep-seated liberal views win her few 
admirers outside the intellectual elite, but she has helped 
keep the Racan coalition going.  In practice, Pusic has 
proven herself to be a pragmatic politician ready to get 
things done.  Some see her as the next FM if an SDP-led 
coalition returns to power after the next election. 
 
14.  (C) Ivica Racan (Age 59, SDP).  PM Racan is a man of 
patience and tactic, rather than one of action.  While these 
traits helped him survive the Tudjman regime as he 
transformed Croatia's League of Communists into the SDP, it 
has been maddening for those who hoped for decisive 
leadership and has meant missed opportunities for Croatia. 
While his SDP may now be a modern, left-of-center party, 
Racan (its president) still has reflexes from its communist 
past.  When he cut a back-room deal with his Slovenian 
counterpart on a contentious maritime border issue, he was 
shocked to learn that he could not muscle it through even his 
own party, let alone the rest of the parliament.  He is 
excessively risk-averse, and his decision to back away first 
from the Vilnius-10 declaration and later from a decision to 
deploy Croatian troops to Iraq hurt Croatia's relations with 
the U.S. 
 
15.  (C) Jozo Rados (Age 47, Libra) Genial and intelligent, 
Rados's preference to remain out of the day-to-day political 
dialogue will likely bring about his doom as a leader in 
Croatia.  He showed real political courage when he led a 
group of MP's away from Budisa's HSLS to save the Racan 
government, but his ineptitude as a manager during his 
15-month stint as Minister of Defense meant a slow start on 
defense reform. 
 
16.  (C) Zlatko Tomcic (Age 58, Croatian Peasant's Party - 
 
HSS)  Authoritarian and politically vain, Tomcic is the 
undisputed leader of the Croatian Peasant Party; he expects - 
and rewards - total obedience.  Comfortably positioned in a 
political can't-lose position as Croatia's third strongest 
party (and therefore kingmaker), the HSS has a stable, mainly 
rural constituency.  Tomcic likes to give the impression that 
as Speaker of Croatia's Parliament he is above the political 
rough-and-tumble, but he is really a natural at cutting 
back-room deals and drives a notoriously hard bargain with 
Racan.  Because of his constituency, the Catholic Church has 
strong influence over Tomcic. 
 
================== 
Opposition Parties 
================== 
 
17.  (C) Drazen Budisa (Age 55, Croatian Social Liberal Party 
- HSLS) Imperious, unpredictable and politically 
self-destructive, Budisa took his party from the 
second-largest in Croatia to the brink of political 
irrelevance in less than two years.  An egotistic tantrum 
brought down the first Racan government and split his party. 
A charismatic public speaker still viewed as a tragic hero 
from his role in the "Croatian Spring," he should never be 
counted all the way out as a political force. 
 
18.  (C) Anto Djapic (Age 45, Croatian Party of Rights, HSP) 
President of the most radical nationalist party in Croatian 
Parliament, Djapic has been an apologist and even an open 
admirer of Croatia's World War II-era fascist regime.  Under 
pressure from the HDZ (which  might need the HSP to form a 
coalition government), Djapic renounced the Ustashe in 
September 2003.  Some observers speculate that Djapic has 
been handsomely compensated by the HDZ for making them look 
reasonable by comparison. 
 
19.  (C) Mate Granic (Age 56, Democratic Center - DC) 
Minister of Foreign Affairs for most of the Tudjman regime, 
Granic broke away from the HDZ to form "Democratic Center" in 
early 2000.  Although the DC never got off the ground as a 
conservative alternative to the HDZ, Granic often polls as 
Croatia's most popular politician.  His positive polling is a 
result of good name recognition and his inability to offend 
anyone.  His younger brother is Deputy PM Goran Granic, who 
reportedly once remarked that "whenever there is anything 
important to decide, Mate is usually in the bathroom." 
 
20.  (C) Jadranka Kosor (Age 50, HDZ)  Adding a human, even 
glamorous, face to the traditionally hard-line HDZ, Kosor's 
approach to the public is shaped by her status as a single 
mother caring for an elderly, infirm parent.  While she may 
have been added to the HDZ presidency to give it gender 
balance, she is now an important political player in her own 
right. 
 
21.  (C) Ivic Pasalic (Age 44, Croatian Blok - HB) Pasalic 
was purged from the HDZ after nearly defeating Sanader in a 
bruising race for the party presidency.  As the "eminence 
grise" for much of the Tudjman regime, Pasalic is widely 
believed to have been personally responsible for some of the 
worst HDZ abuses of power both during and after the war.  But 
nothing has stuck to Pasalic, and although he is on the USG's 
"obstructing Dayton" blacklist, he has not been indicted in 
Croatia. 
 
22.  (C) Ivo Sanader (Age 50, Croatian Democratic Union - 
HDZ)  A polished, eloquent salesman, in the three years since 
he took over Tudjman's HDZ, Sanader eliminated his internal 
political opposition using both fair means and foul.  Now he 
is working overtime to present the HDZ as just another 
conservative European party.  Sanader wears his ambition on 
his sleeve (right next to his Rolex) and will make any deal 
that will get his HDZ into government.  He and a few other 
HDZ leaders represent the respectable veneer on the 
largely-unreformed HDZ. 
 
23.  (C) Vladimir Seks (Age 60, HDZ) The whip of the HDZ 
parliamentary caucus, Seks uses his considerable procedural 
expertise to keep the Racan government as uncomfortable as 
possible.  His reputation is still tainted with the worst 
forms of Tudjman-era cronyism, but he has quit drinking and 
is working hard to reform his public image.  A new scandal 
about coercing "contributions" to the party from business 
leaders in the old days and his continued low ratings in 
polls suggest that the Croatian public still takes him for 
the Tudjman-era dirty dealer that he always was. 
 
24.  (C) Miroslav Tudjman (Age 58, Croatian True Revival - 
HIP)  Tudjman Junior's greatest political assets are his name 
recognition and his uncanny physical resemblance to his 
father.  The head of one of Croatia's often-abused 
intelligence services during the HDZ regime, some observers 
believe he has enough "goods" on coalition leaders to keep 
them from going after him.  More likely is that they do not 
see this uncharismatic academic as a threat. 
 
FRANK 
 
 
NNNN