US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO1706

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001706 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC 
 
E.O. 12958:    DECL:  10-01-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINS, ASEC, CE, NO, EI, LTTE - Peace Process, Political Parties 
SUBJECT:  Peace process update:  Tigers set to meet in 
Dublin; Monitors and Tigers hold high-level meeting 
 
Refs:  Colombo 1684, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  In the latest peace process news, 
Tiger officials are set to meet in Dublin to discuss the 
group's response to the GSL's north/east administration 
proposal.  The Tigers also recently held a high-level 
meeting with the Norwegian-led ceasefire monitoring 
mission to discuss ways to improve cooperation.  In 
other developments, the radical JVP party is leading 
efforts to torque up opposition to the peace process via 
a program of rallies and marches.  At this point, the 
peace process is in a wait-and-see mode, with all eyes 
on the Tigers' response to the GSL proposal.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (SBU) MEETING IN DUBLIN:  In the latest peace 
process news, Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 
officials are set to meet in Dublin to discuss the 
group's response to the Sri Lankan government's 
north/east administration proposal.  The LTTE delegation 
reportedly will be led by LTTE Political Wing Chief S.P. 
Thamilchelvam, and will include Eastern Province 
military commander Karuna and LTTE Peace Secretariat 
Chief S. Pulithevan.  Tamil supporters of the group who 
live outside of Sri Lanka are also slated to join the 
meeting.  The actual dates for the meeting have been 
pushed back somewhat from the original late September 
timeframe, but the discussions now seem set to start on 
October 5.  Some LTTE officials have reportedly already 
left Sri Lanka bound for Ireland, while others, 
including Thamilchelvam and Karuna, reportedly will 
leave on October 3.  The Norwegian government 
facilitators appear to be the chief sponsors of the 
meeting, although the Norwegian embassy here will not 
confirm this.  The Irish government's role, if any, is 
not known.  Among other groups invited to address the 
meeting, the "Forum of Federations," a Canadian 
organization, will reportedly make a presentation on 
federalism and constitutional devolution options. 
 
3.  (C) The Dublin meeting follows closely on the heels 
of a similar meeting held in Paris last month at which 
the Tigers fine-tuned their counter-proposals to the 
government's proposal on the north/east.  Based on what 
Mission has heard from the Norwegian facilitators (see 
Reftels), the central purpose of the Dublin meeting is 
for the LTTE to review further its draft counter- 
proposals before presenting them to the Sri Lankan 
government via Norway's good offices later this month. 
If things go smoothly, GSL-LTTE talks could start up 
again by the November timeframe. 
 
4.  (SBU) MONITORS MEET WITH LTTE:  In other peace 
process developments, the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka 
Monitoring Mission (SLMM) held a high-level meeting with 
the Tigers in the LTTE-controlled town of Kilinochchi in 
north-central Sri Lanka on September 28.  The large 
meeting was attended by the head of the SLMM, Tryggve 
Tellefsen, his deputy, Hagrup Haukland, and SLMM 
district heads for the north/east.  On the Tiger side, 
Political Chief Thamilchelvam and the LTTE's district- 
level political chiefs for the north/east were present. 
 
5.  (C) When asked about the meeting, SLMM spokeswoman 
Agnes Bragadottir told poloff October 1 that it focused 
on ways that the LTTE and SLMM could cooperate in a more 
effective manner.  Bragadottir said the SLMM viewed the 
results of the meeting as "quite positive and 
constructive" in that the LTTE promised to work more 
closely with the SLMM.  The LTTE, for example, agreed to 
hold regular high-level and local-level meetings with 
the monitors.  Regarding specific issues, however, 
Bragadottir indicated that the LTTE did not commit in 
any way to vacating its unauthorized "Wan Ela" military 
camp in Trincomalee District.  Despite warnings from the 
SLMM that doing so is "provocative," the group also did 
not commit to stopping its practice of raising its flag 
at LTTE-sponsored ceremonies that take place in 
government-controlled areas. 
 
6.  (U) As for the LTTE's reaction to the September 28 
meeting, "TamilNet," the pro-Tiger website, reported 
that "there was a frank exchange over several crucial 
matters," but did not elaborate much further than that. 
TamilNet's coverage also included a montage of photos of 
the meeting. 
 
7.  (SBU) JVP TRIES TO STOKE OPPOSITION TO PROCESS: 
Turning to the situation in southern Sri Lanka, the 
radical Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party has been 
intensifying its anti-peace process activities.  The 
group, for example, is the main sponsor of a "Kandy to 
Colombo" protest march taking place September 27 - 
October 1.  Thus far, the march has been peaceful, 
though it has tied up traffic on the important Kandy- 
Colombo road.  The march is set to culminate late 
October 1 with a large rally in Colombo.  The latest 
march and rally are a follow-up to the JVP's "Galle to 
Colombo" march, which took place in late August. 
 
8.  (SBU) As part of its anti-peace process agitation 
campaign, the JVP also recently took the lead role in 
forming a new group called the "Patriotic National 
Movement" (PNM).  The PNM is a loose umbrella 
organization made up of the JVP, and various Sinhalese 
extremist Buddhist monks and others opposed to the 
direction of the peace process and the Norwegian 
facilitation effort.  Some members of President 
Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) have also 
publicly affiliated themselves with the PNM. 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT:  At this point, the peace process is in 
a wait-and-see mode, with all eyes on the Tigers' 
response to the GSL's north/east interim administration 
proposal.  The government's proposal was provided to the 
LTTE in July and the Tigers have now had months to 
review it.  A LTTE response that is flexible will almost 
certainly be crucial in getting the process back on 
track after the group's abrupt withdrawal from the 
negotiations in April.  In the meantime, the fact that 
the LTTE-SLMM meeting went well is a net positive for 
the on-the-ground situation.  Due largely to the LTTE's 
failure to vacate the Wan Ela camp, LTTE-SLMM relations 
had hit their nadir in recent weeks.  The LTTE appears 
to want to avoid a complete breakdown in ties, however. 
 
10.  (C) COMMENT (Continued):  Regarding the JVP's 
latest efforts, the group's hard-line opposition to the 
peace process does not seem to have found much resonance 
among the general public.  In fact, based on all that we 
are hearing, the process still retains strong public 
support.  That said, there is no doubt that the JVP 
hopes that its stance becomes a winning issue down the 
line.  In the meantime, Sri Lanka can expect a string of 
marches and rallies against the process, with some more 
raucous than others.  END COMMENT. 
 
11.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD