US embassy cable - 03AMMAN6276

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 006276 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2013 
TAGS: KPAL, PGOV, IS, JO 
SUBJECT: JORDANIANS WEARY ON THIRD ANNIVERSARY OF 
INTIFADAH, BUT WANTS THE U.S. TO KEEP TRYING 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 05941 
     B. AMMAN 06000 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Edward W. Gnehm for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  While the third anniversary of the al-Aqsa intifadah 
passed with little fanfare in Jordan, Jordanians remain 
frustrated with continuing violence and lack of movement 
toward a settlement.  Beneath weariness, the most common 
themes we hear include the need to restrain Israeli security 
policies to give the Palestinian Authority a chance to 
succeed, the need to deal with an admittedly difficult Yassir 
Arafat, and a fear that the Israeli policies are increasing 
popular support for beleaguered resistance groups, especially 
HAMAS.  Many worry that perceived U.S. government 
preoccupation with Iraq and the U.S. election season will 
lead Israel to believe it has a free hand to move against 
Palestinians with impunity.  Senior GOJ officials, while 
agreeing that the U.S. must be the major catalyst for peace, 
will continue their efforts to get both Israelis and 
Palestinians to take the difficult steps necessary.  Nearly 
all agreed that the U.S. must do more to promote a 
settlement.  End Summary. 
 
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INTIFADAH ANNIVERSARY PASSES WITH ONLY A WHIMPER 
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2.  (SBU)  Unlike in other parts of the Middle East, 
Jordanians did not mark the third anniversary of the al-Aqsa 
anniversary with protests.  In fact, many Jordanians seemed 
not to notice the anniversary at all.  Press coverage was 
low-key, and showcased such radical activities as 
commemorative poetry readings, "Arab activities," a movie 
about the "massacre" in Janin, and an evening of song. 
 
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GOJ WEARY, BUT WILL KEEP ON TRYING 
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3.  (C)  In public remarks that coincided with (but did not 
mark) the anniversary, Foreign Minister Muasher criticized 
both Israelis and Palestinians for failing to live up to 
their roadmap commitments, but did not declare the plan dead 
-- yet.  In an interview with London-based al-Hayat, Muasher 
said that the U.S. needs a monitoring mechanism to check the 
performance of the parties vis-a-vis their roadmap 
obligations, and that a PA crackdown on resistance groups 
"should not be a prerequisite to resumption of implementing 
the roadmap."  Reflecting on the third anniversary of the 
beginning of the intifadah, Ali al-Ayed, Muasher's Private 
Office Director, borrowed a line from King Abdallah's trip to 
the U.S: "No one has done enough (to end to the violence) -- 
not you, not us, not Sharon, not the Palestinians."  Ayed 
pledged continued GOJ efforts to push both the Israelis and 
Palestinians toward peace -- and to remind the USG to do its 
part as well. 
 
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U.S. MUST RESTRAIN ISRAEL 
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4.  (C)  In contrast with the weary determination of the 
government, many of our Jordanian contacts expressed greater 
angst that the United States appears unable or unwilling to 
rein in Israel which -- as they see it -- bears the lion's 
share of responsibility for the continuing violence.  They 
warn that the ongoing targeted assassinations, destruction of 
homes and property, strict closures, and the separation wall 
will create a new set of humanitarian problems and not solve 
Israel's security problems in the long run. 
 
5.  (C)  Noting that more than 3,000 Palestinians and 800 
Israelis have died since the start of this intifadah, Dr. 
Ibrahim Badran, Director of International Relations at 
Philadelphia University, told Poloff that Abu Ala'a is 
capable of consolidating his power and controlling the 
militant groups only if Israel reciprocates with immediate 
positive gestures that show the Palestinian public his 
efforts are bearing fruit.  Former Prime Minister Taher 
al-Masri told Poloff that Jordanians worry Sharon may take 
advantage of the U.S. election season and preoccupation with 
Iraq to create such terrible living conditions in the West 
Bank that the number of Palestinians seeking to relocate to 
Jordan could increase.  (Comment: a weathered re-run of the 
pre-war concern of a large-scale Israeli "transfer" of 
Palestinians to Jordan.  End Comment.) 
 
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ARAFAT IS PART OF THE PROBLEM... 
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6.  (C)  None of our contacts had any kind words for Yassir 
Arafat or his leadership of the Palestinian people. 
Long-time MP Abdul Karim Dughmi pronounced Arafat a "liar" 
more concerned with his personal prerogatives and popularity 
than Palestinian statehood.  MP Mohammad Shawbkeh accused 
Arafat of rampant corruption and doubted whether Arafat 
really was prepared to do what is necessary to achieve the 
goal of a Palestinian state. 
 
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...BUT MUST BE PART OF THE SOLUTION 
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7.  (C)  At the same time, most argued that Arafat must be 
brought into any peace process for it to be successful.  MPs 
Abdallah al-Jazi and Mufleh al-Rhaimi told us that Arafat 
retains broad loyalty within the PNA and among Palestinians 
at home and abroad, and thus has power to thwart any 
agreement.  Consequently, they argued, the U.S. must deal 
with Arafat.  Jordanian columnist and former MP Hamadeh 
Faraneh (a Fatah member) says that by ordering Arafat's 
expulsion and musing about possible assassination, the 
Israelis boosted Arafat's flagging popularity and pushed even 
critics of Arafat, including the Jordanian government, the 
Islamic Action Front, and HAMAS, to his defense.  All 
concluded that the U.S. should draw Arafat into a solution 
and twist his arm to do what is necessary. 
 
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ISRAELI ACTIONS FUEL SUPPORT FOR HAMAS IN JORDAN 
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8. (C)  Jordanians are quick to deplore HAMAS's terrorist 
tactics, but many in the next breath express understanding 
for them given the harsh conditions under which Palestinians 
live.  Many also argue that HAMAS also is an important 
political and social movement that provides needed services 
-- such as health care, garbage collection, and rebuilding 
assistance -- that the Palestinian Authority cannot.  Dr. 
Badran argued that given this positive side to HAMAS, Israeli 
attacks on senior HAMAS leaders perceived as "moderate" have 
only rallied popular support to HAMAS's side.  The Israeli 
approach, which has not succeeded in stopping suicide 
bombings, will only complicate Abu Ala'a's efforts to 
confront and disarm the militants, he asserted. 
 
9. (C)  The sentiment permeates the recently-elected 
Parliament.  Following Parliament's condemnation of the EU 
decision to label HAMAS a terrorist group, MPs again rallied 
to HAMAS's side last week to deplore the government's 
decision to freeze HAMAS's assets in Jordan (reftels). 
Seventy out of 110 MPs signed a letter to the Parliament's 
speaker demanding that Central Bank Governor Umaya Touqan -- 
who issued the freeze order -- be discharged for 
"recklessness in making the account freeze decision and 
harming the country's reputation."  Some appeared mollified 
by the government's clumsy retraction of the decision, but 
others demanded that Touqan be held accountable for what they 
believed was a decision made "without the prime minister or 
government's knowledge."  Others, such as MP Abdallah Akaileh 
(Tafileh), went further, accusing Touqan of being "a tool in 
American hands." 
 
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COMMENT: JORDANIANS STILL LOOK TO THE U.S. 
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10. (C)  Despite the dour mood surrounding the current 
situation, Dr. Badran says there are Jordanians -- 
particularly in his academic circles -- who wish to play a 
constructive role in supporting political efforts to restart 
the process.   Peace activist Gen. (R) Mansour Abu Rashid of 
the Amman Center for Peace and Development says his 
organization continues to sponsor workshops aimed at 
continuing the dialogue between Jordanians and Israelis 
(although most Jordanian participants insist that their 
attendance not be publicized).  While Jordanians often 
express disappointment with U.S. policy in the Middle East 
and sadness as the intifadah enters its fourth year, most 
still retain the hope that the U.S. --building on President 
Bush's vision of two states living side by side in peace and 
security -- can engineer movement toward a settlement. 
 
Visit Embassy Amman's classified website at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site 
through the State Department's SIPRNET home page. 
GNEHM