US embassy cable - 03ANKARA6122

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006122 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, TU 
SUBJECT: APPEALS COURT RULING COULD LEAD TO REDISTRIBUTION 
OF PARLIAMENTARY SEATS 
 
 
REF: ANKARA 5848 
 
 
Classified by Acting Political Counselor C.O. Blaha; reasons 
1.5 b and d. 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: As expected, Turkey's Supreme Appeals Court 
upheld a lower court ruling convicting leaders of the 
pro-Kurdish Democratic People's Party (DEHAP) of election 
fraud.  The High Election Board (YSK) will determine how to 
respond to the ruling.  Most of our contacts predict the YSK 
will decide to maintain the November 2002 election results, 
thereby preserving the current allocation of parliamentary 
seats; Embassy believes this is the most likely outcome.  But 
there is wide speculation that opponents of the ruling AK 
Party could pressure the YSK to cancel DEHAP's November votes 
and reallocate parliamentary seats, allowing the True Path 
Party (DYP) to enter Parliament.  Reallocation could 
potentially cause PM Erdogan to lose his position.  There is 
no official deadline for the YSK decision.  End Summary. 
 
 
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Court Issues Expected Ruling 
---------------------------- 
 
 
2. (U) Turkey's Appeals Court on September 29 ruled 
unanimously to uphold the lower court convictions of former 
DEHAP leader Mehmet Abbasoglu and three former party 
administrators on changes of forging documents in order to 
qualify the party for the November 2002 elections.  The 
ruling upholds two-year prison sentences for the defendants. 
DEHAP attorneys cannot appeal the decision, but they can seek 
a "correction" from the same court that issued the ruling, a 
technicality unlikely to be effective.  The lead defense 
attorney said publicly that he will appeal to the European 
Court of Human Rights. 
 
 
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Two Options for Election Board 
------------------------------ 
 
 
3. (C) As a result of the widely anticipated ruling, DYP, 
third-place finisher in the November elections, is expected 
to appeal to the YSK for a reallocation of parliamentary 
seats.  As reported reftel, YSK has two options for 
responding to such an appeal: 1) maintain the November 2002 
election results despite the ruling; or 2) cancel DEHAP's 
votes in the election and recalculate the vote percentage 
garnered by each party.  Our sources overwhelmingly reject 
press speculation that the YSK might completely annul the 
November elections, deeming such an option politically risky 
and legally questionable. 
 
 
4. (C) Under option two, DYP would receive 66 seats and 
become the third party in Parliament, joining the ruling 
Justice and Development Party (AK) and opposition Republican 
People's Party (CHP).  Some speculate that such a decision 
could cause PM Erdogan to lose his post, by annulling the 
provincial by-elections that allowed Erdogan to enter 
Parliament.  Our sources indicate that leading YSK members 
oppose redistribution as a threat to the constitutionally 
enshrined concept of "administrative stability."  However, 
some speculate that the YSK could be vulnerable to pressure 
from AK opponents who want to reduce the ruling party's 
parliamentary majority (reftel).  Option two would still 
leave AK with a majority in the 550-seat legislature. 
 
 
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No Official Timeline 
-------------------- 
 
 
5. (U) There is no regulation requiring the YSK to respond to 
an appeal by a set deadline, though there will be political 
pressure to resolve the case quickly. 
 
 
----------------------- 
DYP Will Appeal Quickly 
----------------------- 
 
 
6. (C) DYP Vice Chairman Oguz Tezmen said publicly he expects 
the party to appeal to the YSK by September 30.  Mehmet Ali 
Bayar, another DYP vice chairman, averred to us that there is 
"no timeline" for appealing, but acknowledged an appeal could 
come "at any second."  Bayar argued that the YSK should 
reallocate seats, claiming that a decision to maintain the 
November election results would be "political." 
------------------------------------------ 
DEHAP Calls Ruling "Psychological Warfare" 
------------------------------------------ 
 
 
7. (C) DEHAP Vice Chairman Nazmi Gur told us the Appeals 
Court issued its ruling immediately after DEHAP attorneys 
presented their defense, proving, he argued, that the 
decision was "political" and "pre-arranged."  Gur described 
the ruling as an element of "psychological warfare" by the 
State against Kurds.  DEHAP attorney Guven Ozata publicly 
criticized the ruling as a rejection of the two million 
voters who cast ballots for DEHAP.  A number of AK and CHP 
leaders argued against a reallocation of seats.  AK Deputy 
Group Chairman Kapusuz maintained that the voters should not 
be punished for the crimes of a few individuals.  CHP Deputy 
Group Chairman Koc said a reallocation would threaten 11 
months of accomplishments under the current government. 
 
 
8. (C) Turkish political parties are required to organize in 
half the country's provinces, 41 of 81, by six months prior 
to elections in order to participate.  The DEHAP officials 
were convicted of falsifying documents in order to give the 
appearance of meeting this requirement.  Nazmi Gur claimed to 
us recently that the charges are completely fabricated.  Gur 
noted that officials initially verified that DEHAP had 
organized in 63 provinces, then later, 25 days before the 
elections, changed their minds.  Gur said parties submit 
documents to local authorities, who are supposed to pass them 
up the chain to the Court of Appeals Chief Prosecutor, and 
argued that it would be easy to "lose" documents along the 
way. 
 
 
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Comment 
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9. (C) We continue to believe that the most likely outcome is 
a YSK decision to deny reallocation.  YSK board members 
appear to put a premium on order, and one member made it 
clear to us he doubts the validity of the charges against 
DEHAP.  While there is pressure from some quarters to 
reallocate, there is also considerable resistance from the 
parties in Parliament.  Though DYP stands to gain from a 
reallocation, such a move is risky for AK opponents overall. 
AK leaders continue to tell us the party will call early 
elections if the YSK reallocates seats, a move they believe 
will increase their majority. 
 
 
 
 
EDELMAN