US embassy cable - 03TEGUCIGALPA2301

UNCLAS TEGUCIGALPA 002301 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR DRL, DRL/PHD, INL, INL/LP, AND DS 
STATE FOR WHA/CEN AND WHA/PPC 
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM, PGOV, KJUS, KCRM, SNAR, ASEC, HO 
SUBJECT: HONDURAN MINISTER OF PUBLIC SECURITY CLAIMS MURDER 
RATE HAS DECLINED IN TWO MAIN CITIES SINCE ANTI-GANG LAW 
PASSED 
 
REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 1904 
     B. TEGUCIGALPA 1938 
     C. TEGUCIGALPA 2081 
 
1. Although still exceptionally high (ref B), according to 
Minister of Public Security (MOPS) Oscar Alvarez September 
23, the murder rate in Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula 
declined approximately 24 percent since the passage of 
anti-gang legislation in early August (ref A).  (Note:  As 
reported in ref B, the methodology used to collect murder 
statistics varies between different government agencies (as 
well as NGOs) which leads to significant discrepancies.  End 
Note.) 
 
2. According to MOPS Alvarez, since the new anti-gang law 
came into effect 222 people have been arrested.  Of those, 56 
percent have been detained for prosecution while the 
remaining 44 percent have been freed.  MOPS Alvarez indicated 
to DCM that the GOH was targeting gang leaders while 
attempting to convince the rank-and-file to abandon the gangs. 
 
3. While MOPS Alvarez is reporting declining murder rates, 
Casa Alianza (a child advocacy NGO that tracks the murder of 
children and youth) states that children and youth murder 
rates have remained constant, except for a decline in July. 
Casa Alianza also attributed only 16 percent of the 64 youth 
and children murders in August to gang members, while 80 
percent still have no identified killer. 
 
4.  COMMENT:  Personal security remains the number one 
concern of the average Honduran and the passage of anti-gang 
legislation was extremely popular.  Popular sentiment, and 
the GOH, tend to blame gangs for the scourge of violence that 
has gripped the country.  This, however, is a debatable 
conclusion.  If a significant decline in the overall murder 
rate proves to be more than a short-term phenomenon, it will 
go a long way toward giving credence to GOH assertions that 
gangs are to blame for most of the violence.  END COMMENT. 
Palmer