US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2473

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GUATEMALA 002473 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EMBASSY SAN JOSE PLEASE PASS TO CODEL KOLBE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OVIP, PREL, PGOV, ETRD, PHUM, GT 
SUBJECT: SCENE SETTER FOR VISIT OF CODEL KOLBE 
 
 
1. (U) Summary: Your September 27-29 visit to Guatemala comes 
in the final weeks of Guatemala's heated national election 
campaign, leading up to the November 9 election of the 
President, all members of the unicameral Congress and all 
local government officials.  The sometimes violent 
confrontation between the ruling party (the Frente 
Republicano Guatemalteco - FRG) and the opposition has fed 
fears of potential electoral fraud, though USG assistance to 
the impartial Supreme Electoral Tribunal and the Organization 
of American States (OAS) election monitoring mission has 
contributed significantly to ensuring that the election is 
free and fair.  Polls show one of the opposition candidates 
has a significant lead in the presidential race. 
 
2. (U) The new government, which will take office on January 
15, 2004, will inherit an initialized text or final 
negotiation of a free trade agreement between the United 
States and Central America (CAFTA).  Concluding a free trade 
agreement with Central America is one of the Administration's 
highest priorities.  Securing effective cooperation from 
Guatemala in the war against drugs is also a major USG 
priority, and we have seen major advances in this front in 
recent months.  In March 2003, Guatemala was "decertified" 
with a vital national interest waiver for failing to 
cooperate fully in stopping the flow of drugs (mainly 
Colombian cocaine) through Guatemala to the US.  Following 
this virtual "decertification," the GOG (prodded by us) 
increased cooperation in practically all areas of the war on 
drugs -- increasing cocaine seizures from 4 tons in 2002 to 
over 8 tons so far in 2003; extraditing a Guatemalan national 
to face justice in the US; signing and ratifying a 
Counternarcotics Maritime Cooperation Agreement with us; 
seizing over $21 million dollars in narcotics assets; and 
much more.  On September 15, 2003, President Bush certified 
Guatemala as a cooperating partner in the war on drugs in 
response to this increased cooperation. 
 
3. (U) The protection of human rights in Guatemala continues 
to suffer from the legacy of 36 years of civil war, which 
ended in 1996 with the signing of the Peace Accords between 
Marxist guerrillas and the Guatemalan government.  The USG 
has made promoting human rights and investigating and 
prosecuting violations committed during the internal conflict 
a major priority.  There have been some advances, but threats 
against human rights workers continue to impede progress in 
healing the wounds of the civil war.  Your visit will offer 
the opportunity to underscore for your Guatemalan 
interlocutors, both in the government and civil society, the 
importance the United States places on the holding of free 
and fair elections, the negotiation of a free trade agreement 
that benefits us all, effective cooperation to stop the flow 
of drugs through Guatemala and the promotion of human rights. 
 End summary. 
 
National Elections 
------------------ 
4. (U) Elections for President, Congress and mayors will be 
held on November 9, and you will find that the heated 
election campaign will be foremost on the minds of your 
Guatemalan interlocutors.  There are numerous Presidential 
candidates, making it difficult for any one candidate to 
obtain the 50% of the vote necessary to win on the first 
round.  If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote on 
November 9, a run-off election will be held on December 28 
between the two finalists.  Currently the polls show 
center-right business candidate for the GANA coalition Oscar 
Berger ahead with roughly 40% of the vote.  Center-left 
candidate Alvaro Colom and the populist candidate for the 
ruling FRG, former General Efrain Rios Montt, are disputing 
the second place with between 13 and 18% of the vote.  The 
candidacy of former de facto President Rios Montt (who headed 
a military junta in 1982-1983) has added a great deal of 
controversy to the election as there is a Constitution 
prohibition against it.  Rios Montt used his position as 
President of Congress during these past four years and head 
of the ruling FRG to stack the Constitutional Court with his 
supporters, thus ensuring that the high court ruled in favor 
of his candidacy by the narrowest of margins.  The decision 
unleashed a firestorm of protests by the opposition and the 
media, but ultimately the decision stood as the 
Constitutional Court is the highest court in the land and its 
decisions can not be appealed. 
 
5. (U) The participation of Rios Montt in the election and 
the high levels of political violence (twelve mayoral or city 
council candidates and party activists have been killed so 
far) have increased public concerns that the ruling party may 
engage in electoral fraud.  Guatemala has a good electoral 
law and an independent and respected Electoral Tribunal, 
greatly reducing the probability that fraud will be 
significant.  The USG has invested resources to strengthen 
the technical ability of the Electoral Tribunal to carry out 
free and fair elections, and we are providing most of the 
financing for the OAS election observation mission, which 
will blanket the country in the weeks leading up to the 
election and on election day.  The Electoral Tribunal is 
getting out the message on TV and radio, in Spanish and in 
the Mayan languages, that "your vote is secret."  While it 
will be hard to overcome the popular perception that fraud 
will be committed in the elections, we believe the process 
will be transparent. 
 
Free Trade (CAFTA) 
------------------ 
6. (U) Your visit will also coincide with the final stages of 
the negotiation of a free trade agreement between the United 
States and Central America.  The Administration has made the 
conclusion of a free trade agreement with Central America one 
of the highest priorities in our relationship with the 
hemisphere.  The region currently benefits from unilateral 
trade concessions under the General System of Preferences 
(GSP) and the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI), but a free 
trade agreement would give us similar access to Central 
American markets in exchange for making their access to the 
US market permanent.  It will also strengthen and clarify the 
rules for trading, investing and resolving business disputes 
in the region, eliminating some of the arbitrary practices 
that have impeded investment and growth.  We believe a free 
trade agreement between the US and Central America will spur 
economic growth in the region, giving them a greater capacity 
to buy our products and diminishing the incentive for 
immigration.  There are currently an estimated 1.5 million 
Guatemalans living in the United States, most without legal 
status.  Remittances by Guatemalans living in the US to their 
relatives in Guatemala will reach almost $2 billion in 2003, 
generating more foreign currency for Guatemala than exports 
of coffee, sugar and tourism combined. 
 
Counter-Narcotics Cooperation 
----------------------------- 
7. (U) Guatemala is a major transit country for drugs (mainly 
Colombian cocaine) heading to US markets.  Over a 100 tons of 
cocaine are estimated to transit through Guatemalan land, 
waters or airspace every year.  During the first years of the 
administration of President Alfonso Portillo, the GOG did not 
make cooperation in the war on drugs a high priority, and 
containing the transit of drugs through Guatemala suffered 
markedly.  In March 2003, President Bush certified to 
Congress that Guatemala was not fully cooperating in the war 
on drugs, but extended a vital national interest waiver to 
Guatemala in order for us to continue critical USG assistance 
programs in the area of child nutrition, protection of the 
environment and human rights.  This virtual "decertification" 
led the GOG to improve its cooperation with us in the war 
against drugs, and in the ensuing six months the GOG doubled 
cocaine seizures; extradited a Guatemalan national to the US 
to face felony murder charges; signed and ratified a 
Counternarcotics Maritime Cooperation Agreement with us; 
passed asset forfeiture legislation; seized over $21 million 
in narcotics assets; totally reorganized the special 
counternarcotics police; and much more.  As a result of the 
GOG's enhanced cooperation, on September 15 President Bush 
certified to Congress that Guatemala is once again a 
cooperating partner on the war on drugs.  We are continuing 
to engage with the GOG to ensure that counternarcotics 
cooperation levels are sustained in the remaining months of 
the Portillo Administration, and have made this a major 
element in our dialogue with the presidential candidates in 
the upcoming elections. 
 
Human Rights 
------------ 
8. (U) The end of the 36-year armed internal conflict in 1996 
put an end to the most egregious human rights violations in 
Guatemala, but left a legacy of violence and impunity that 
persists today.  Human rights organizations that are trying 
to prosecute human rights violators from the conflict period 
have been threatened and several have been killed during the 
past two years.  The USG has made protection of human rights 
workers and promotion of the rule of law a major USG 
objective in our relationship with Guatemala.  The Ambassador 
has personally attended the major human rights trials and 
made numerous public statements in support of the beleaguered 
human rights community, as well as using every private 
meeting with government and military leaders to raise our 
concerns about the continuing threats.  We have supported the 
creation of an international commission (made up of the UN, 
OAS and Guatemalans) to investigate the operation of 
clandestine groups in the country, for the purpose of 
prosecuting those who are threatening human rights workers. 
 
Comment 
------- 
9. (U) Your visit offers an important opportunity to convey 
to Guatemalans, both in the government and in civil society, 
the priority the United States places on working with 
Guatemalans to strengthen their emerging democracy.  At this 
juncture in Guatemala's history, the key to success will 
depend to a great extent on the holding of free and fair 
elections, the negotiation of a free trade agreement with us, 
clamping down on the transit of narcotics through the isthmus 
and the effective promotion of human rights.  We welcome your 
visit and look forward to the chance to brief you more fully 
on these issues on your arrival. 
HAMILTON