US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO1665

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 001665 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  09-25-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PHUM, PINR, MV, Maldives 
SUBJECT:  Maldives:  President Gayoom wins first phase 
of presidential selection process 
 
Refs:  Colombo 1660, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of 
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (U) Maldivian President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom won the 
first phase of the country's presidential selection 
process on September 25.  Gayoom took all 50 votes in 
the People's Majlis (Parliament).  The three other 
candidates, Abdul Ghafoor Hussain, Mohammed Shareef, and 
Nazeer Ahmed Jamaal, failed to pick up any support.  One 
candidate, Ibrahim Noori, was disqualified before the 
Majlis vote because he could not prove that his 
ancestors were Maldivian.  Of the candidates, Gayoom was 
the only one who was well-known. 
 
2.  (U) With his victory, Gayoom now becomes the Majlis' 
official candidate for president.  In the next and final 
phase of the process, Gayoom will face a "yes/no" 
national referendum on his candidacy.  This referendum 
is slated to take place in the next two to three weeks. 
If he is successful, his inauguration would take place 
in November.  Gayoom has won previous presidential 
referendums with over 90 percent of the vote. 
 
3.  (C) COMMENT:  The Majlis vote was not unexpected and 
Gayoom, who has been in power since 1978, seems on 
course to win his sixth five-year term as president. 
The one caveat in this otherwise rosy picture for Gayoom 
is the sudden popping up of visible anti-government 
sentiment in the country, as exhibited in graphic form 
during the September 20 rioting in the capital Male (see 
Reftels).  Even assuming a free-and-fair referendum (as 
those in the past appear to have been), anti-government 
elements probably do not have enough support to defeat 
Gayoom.  They could, however, cause further problems on 
the street for Gayoom's regime with unpredictable 
consequences.  END COMMENT. 
 
4.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD