US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO1660

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001660 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:    DECL:  09-24-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PHUM, CASC, MV, Maldives 
SUBJECT:  Maldives:  Recent rioting in capital sparks 
questions about stability of Gayoom regime 
 
Refs:  Colombo 1648, and previous (Notal) 
 
(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  A Mission team visited the Maldives, 
September 22-24.  In the aftermath of the rioting that 
took place on September 20, Male appeared calm with 
little sign of any tension.  In discussions on the 
unrest, GoRM officials ritually blamed "drug users" and 
"miscreants."  Observers, however, seemed to be more on 
the mark, commenting that the riots were a function of 
the government's failure to democratize and engage the 
"youth bulge."  Despite the GoRM's problems, the feeling 
was that President Gayoom would probably come out on top 
in the ongoing presidential selection process.  That 
said, the unrest has sparked significant doubts about 
the stability of his rule.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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Mission Visit in Aftermath of Unrest 
------------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C) Polchief, poloff and a POL FSN visited the 
Maldives from September 22-24.  In the aftermath of the 
rioting that afflicted the city on September 20 (see 
Reftel), the atmosphere in Male seemed calm, with 
students in white uniforms going to school, and tourists 
snapping photos of the harbor and gold-domed mosque. 
The only evidence of the recent disturbances was the 
noticeable presence of security forces in camouflage 
uniforms patrolling the streets and an armored personnel 
carrier parked near the presidential palace.  Mission 
did not see any of the several buildings torched by the 
rioters, however.  During the team's September 23 visit, 
Gan Island, the southern-most in the Maldivian chain, 
was also placid, with the matter of the riots in Male 
seemingly as distant as the roughly 500 miles separating 
the two islands. 
 
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Officials Blame "Drug Users" 
---------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) When asked about the September 20 riots, GoRM 
officials tried hard to make it seem that the situation 
was now totally fine and that what had happened was a 
complete anomaly.  Mohammed Munavvar, the Attorney 
General, told the team that "drug users" and "other 
miscreants" had taken advantage of anger over the death 
of two prisoners in a government jail to run amok in the 
capital (there are reports that a third prisoner later 
succumbed to his wounds).  Munavvar emphasized that he 
did not think there was anything political about the 
riots in Male, asserting that the unrest had nothing to 
do with the ongoing presidential selection process (see 
Para six) or with opposition to President Gayoom. 
Munavvar added that it was important that the government 
train guards and upgrade facilities so as to help make 
sure that prison violence did not erupt ever again. 
Other government officials that the team met with 
repeated in almost ritual fashion comments similar to 
those of Munavvar.  The essential message from the GoRM 
was:  the unrest was not pleasant, but everything was 
now fine again in the Maldives. 
 
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Observers see Something Deeper 
------------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) Compared to the almost canned remarks of 
government officials, other observers seemed to be much 
more on the mark regarding what was really transpiring. 
Remarks by Minh Pham, the Amcit head of the UNDP office 
in Male (pls strictly protect), were particularly 
interesting.  Pham told the team that there was no way 
that the unrest involved only drug users as claimed by 
the GoRM.  The narcotics problem in the Maldives was a 
small one and there was no indication that drug users 
were a force that could riot and attack government 
property on such a scale, he noted.  Based on what he 
had heard, Pham said he believed that the rioters were 
mostly unemployed or underemployed youths, who had taken 
advantage of the tensions over the killings at the 
prison to launch attacks on the regime.  Many of the 
rioters were angered that the government was autocratic 
in attitude and practice, and had failed to democratize 
the system.  These youths, he noted, had attacked 
symbols of the government, such as the High Court and 
the Elections Commission.  The selection of such 
targets, when private property was largely left 
untouched, was a clear sign of the rioters' impatience 
with President Gayoom and opposition to recent 
controversial court rulings convicting politicians who 
were popular with the young of various crimes.  Boiling 
down his points, Pham made clear that he thought that 
the GoRM had done a very poor job of engaging the 
country's "youth bulge" (55 percent of the population is 
under 20).  If progress was not made in involving the 
young in decision-making in some way, Pham predicted 
that the Maldives would see a repeat of the events of 
September 20. 
 
5.  (C) Like Pham, N.T. Khankhub, the Acting High 
Commissioner of India, stressed the point that a real 
"generation gap" was emerging in the Maldives.  The 
president and much of his cabinet were over 60, and were 
not able to relate well with the much younger bulk of 
the population.  Khankhub, noting that the events of 
September 20 were "extraordinary" for the normally 
placid Maldives, said he thought the government had to 
work harder to relate to youths by providing them more 
educational and economic opportunities.  Some sort of 
political outlet was also needed, he noted, or the 
situation would "not be stable" in the future. 
 
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Impact on Presidential Selection Process 
---------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Despite the government's problems, the overall 
feeling was that President Gayoom probably would come 
out on top in the ongoing presidential selection process 
(see Reftels).  Khankhub said there was little sign of 
deterioration in Gayoom's support within regime circles, 
and he should be able to win the upcoming vote in the 
Majlis (Parliament) which was packed with hand-chosen 
loyalists.  This vote is scheduled to take place 
September 24 or 25 and will involve the 50-member Majlis 
selecting one candidate from the list of four (including 
Gayoom) approved by the regime.  GoRM officials and 
other observers noted that the other three candidates 
were not at all well-known, and almost certainly did not 
stand a chance.  Khankhub remarked that once Gayoom got 
through the Majlis vote he should have no problem with 
the "yes/no" referendum vote which would take place in 
two or three weeks.  Pham commented that he thought that 
Gayoom's re-election appeared to be a "formality" unless 
there were further disturbances that caused Gayoom's 
supporters to lose faith in him. 
 
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COMMENT 
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7.  (C) Although Gayoom might well come out on top in 
the ongoing presidential selection process, the recent 
unrest in Male has sparked significant doubts about the 
stability of his rule.  Mission has long noted that the 
regime is mildly authoritarian and brittle in 
countenancing political reform.  It needs to act quickly 
to become more inclusive, or there could be more 
problems on the streets sooner rather than later.  Based 
on what the team heard from GoRM officials, however, 
there does not seem to be a recognition of any need to 
change on the part of the regime.  This is not good news 
and could indicate that September 20 was not a one off 
event, but heralds a new era of confrontational politics 
in the Maldives.  END COMMENT. 
8.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD