US embassy cable - 03ISTANBUL1409

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 001409 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TU, Istanbul 
SUBJECT: ISTANBUL REPUBLICAN PEOPLE'S PARTY: HOPING FOR 
ELECTORAL FAILURE? 
 
 
REF: A. A. ISTANBUL 1231 
     B. B. ANKARA 4862 
     C. C. ISTANBUL 1348 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General David Arnett for Reasons 1.5 (b & d) 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: Istanbul Republican People's Party (CHP) 
contacts report widespread internal discontent with CHP 
Chairman Baykal and the CHP's performance over the last 
several months.  Although Baykal has successfully taken firm 
control of the Istanbul party organization, the party has so 
far been unable to put forward any candidates for Istanbul 
City Hall that promise to mobilize and reinforce their 
eroding support base.  Resigned over their party's inability 
to increase its public support, our contacts openly admit 
that they expect a CHP failure at the polls in next spring's 
local elections to open the way for internal change within 
the party. 
 
 
Baykal Strengthens Hold on Istanbul Organization 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
2. (C) Istanbul has long been a major battleground within the 
CHP organization, and this year's Istanbul Congress was 
further confirmation of that fact (ref A).  In the face of 
opposition and criticism, Baykal made a strong push to ensure 
that his people dominated the delegate list that Istanbul 
will send to the National Congress and would continue to 
control the Istanbul organization.  Mehmet Boluk, a former 
Istanbul Chairman and the principal challenger to Baykal's 
candidate in the August 3 Congress, argued that the party is 
losing its base on the left and has not been sufficiently 
vocal in opposition.  Although Boluk's challenge failed, he 
told poloff that "most" of the party faithful are "unhappy" 
with Baykal, but are keeping their opposition quiet until 
next spring's local elections.  Once the elections are over, 
Boluk predicted a sea change within the party ranks.  (Note: 
Boluk has also filed a court case alleging that Baykal 
illegally stacked the August 3 Istanbul Congress with 
supporters by falsifying local residency documents.) 
 
 
The Big Prize: Istanbul Mayoralty 
--------------------------------- 
3. (C) None of our CHP interlocutors expect major 
developments at the upcoming CHP Congress (see also ref B), 
with all eyes focused instead on next spring's municipal 
elections.  Most agree that the Justice and Development (AK) 
Party commands significantly more local support than CHP, and 
that the electoral math leaves CHP with only a narrow 
opportunity to take the Mayoralty (note: this would require a 
split among potential AKP supporters between 
still-independent Istanbul Mayor Ali Mufit Gurtuna and an 
unnamed AKP candidate).  Local CHP insiders Boluk and Sisli 
District Mayor Mustafa Sarigul were somewhat defeatist about 
CHP's electoral prospects and even eager to use a failure 
(defined as anything less than the 19 percent CHP polled 
nationally last year) to bring about internal change in the 
party. 
 
 
4. (C) Sarigul said that although he had been approached 
about running for the Istanbul Mayoralty (note: he is widely 
considered one of CHP's best potential candidates), he has 
since decided that his chances of winning do not justify a 
decision to run.  Former State Minister and Istanbul MP Kemal 
Dervis' name continues to be floated, but close confidante 
and fellow Istanbul MP Damla Gurel downplayed that 
likelihood.  Former Foreign Minister and current New Turkey 
Party (YTP) Chairman Ismail Cem has also been mentioned as a 
possible candidate (in the unlikely event that CHP and YTP 
could cement a pre-election alliance), but few take that 
prospect seriously. 
 
 
Failure in 2004 = Chance for Change? 
------------------------------------ 
5. (C) Assessing CHP's performance as the country's only 
opposition party since last year's elections, former Istanbul 
Chairman Mehmet Boluk said that this must be one of the only 
parties in recent history to "lose public support while in 
opposition."  Istanbul MP Damla Gurel (a newcomer to CHP who 
joined the party last year with former State Minister Kemal 
Dervis) admitted candidly to poloff that "most party members 
are unhappy."  Professing to have good personal relations 
with Baykal, Gurel nevertheless criticized him for not 
promoting party teamwork, for failing to "follow through" on 
commitments, and for a total inability to "communicate" his 
vision and plans both within the party and to the general 
public. 
 
 
6. (C) Sisli Mayor Sarigul also criticized Baykal and the CHP 
leadership, particularly for failing to challenge AKP by 
appealing directly to the voters.  Rather than criticize 
AKP's plans for a property amnesty and sale of forest lands, 
for example, Sarigul argues that CHP should have embraced the 
proposal and taken it even further (see also ref C).  We are 
supposed to be the social democrats, but we are doing nothing 
to reach out to the people who need us, Sarigul complained. 
(Note: Boasting of having received the largest number of 
votes among all of the Istanbul delegates to the National 
Congress, Sarigul clearly sees himself as a potential future 
leader of the party). 
 
 
7. (C) Former CHP Chairman Altan Oymen (who was defeated by 
Baykal when he returned to the party chairmanship in 2001) 
was more supportive of Baykal and his performance, but 
conceded that CHP had failed to increase its support among 
the general public.  Oymen attributed this to the party's 
failure to bring together the other left and center-left 
parties, many of which are dominated by former CHP members. 
Gurel, Sarigul, and Oymen all agreed that anything less than 
19 percent of the vote in the upcoming elections would 
trigger an internal movement for change within the party. 
Asked how such change would materialize in a party that is 
tightly controlled by the chairman, Sarigul and Oymen 
separately explained that an electoral failure would prompt 
discussions and debate in the party ranks and would embolden 
other power brokers to push for change (perhaps Baykal 
himself would resign, Oymen added). 
 
 
ARNETT