US embassy cable - 03BRASILIA3070

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 003070 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR JOANNA WALLACE 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/BACKES, SEGAL 
PLS PASS FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR WILSON, ROBATAILLE 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/IEP/WH/OLAC-SC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON, EFIN, PGOV, BR, Fee Trade Agreement of America (FTAA) 
SUBJECT: AMORIM BRIEFS CONGRESS ON CANCUN MINISTERIAL 
 
 
1.  ECONFSN attended the September 17 presentation on 
WTO issues by Brazil\'s Foreign Minister Celso Amorim to 
the Chamber of Deputies Foreign Affairs Committee after 
the FM\'s return from the 9/10-14 Cancun Ministerial. 
This was FM Amorim\'s second appearance this month 
before the Committee at the latter\'s invitation.  His 
tone was confident but restrained, with no hint of 
triumphalism despite the many accolades to him from 
deputies and parts of Brazil\'s media since Cancun\'s 
denouement.  Following are the main points addressed 
during FM Amorim\'s 45-minute testimony followed by a 75- 
minute Q and A session. 
 
2.  Points made: 
 
--  It is too early for a complete detailed analysis of 
the Cancun meeting, as the Brazilian delegation members 
were still digesting the events and implications. 
 
-- G22 genesis:  in the past, the U.S. had aligned with 
the Cairns Group versus the EU; this time the U.S. and 
EU had come to Cancun with a joint defensive position. 
Having Mexico as the conference leader and Singapore as 
Ag facilitator helped allow the formation of the G22 
(or, Amorim said, the G20+, as he expects more 
inclusions.) 
 
-- The raising of Singapore issues by the conference 
had caused a mutiny by India and \"little-bitty\" 
(\"pequeninos\") countries. 
 
-- The WTO remains the legitimate, \"non-replaceable\" 
forum in which Brazil should pursue its trade 
interests.  Amorim repeatedly stressed this point.  He 
also made clear that, in Brazil\'s view, Cancun was not 
a failure, and the Doha Round negotiations are an 
ongoing process which will not fade away.  It is better 
for Brazil that the Round \"skid\" for six months or even 
a year so as to end up with a sufficient agreement than 
to wait fifteen years for a new WTO round to give 
desired results.  He added that, although still not 
ideal, the Conference\'s paper on agriculture at the end 
of the event was better than the initial one. 
 
-- The G20+ is a coalition only for agricultural 
matters.  A G20+ meeting is likely to be held at some 
point, during which implications of the end of the 
Peace Clause in December may be considered.  After the 
expiration of the Peace Clause there will be potential 
WTO cases from which Brazil can benefit; however, said 
Amorim, \"rhetorical battle\" should be avoided. 
 
-- The coalition of the G20+ has brought more 
equilibrium into the WTO.  Given that the new group 
represents 65% of the world\'s agricultural production 
and about half of the planet\'s population, the group 
has sufficient weight to negotiate with the U.S. and 
EU.  It did not split the \"monolith\" of the U.S. and 
EU, but found some \"cracks\" between them representing 
areas where advances can be made. 
 
 
-- Amorim was not sure why the EU backed down over 
Singapore issues and was willing to accept just one 
Singapore issue being discussed. 
 
-- Amorim said he did not believe the U.S. or the EU 
would retaliate against Brazil for the latter\'s conduct 
at Cancun.  He said the issues involved are ones that 
can be worked out in future negotiations.  He mentioned 
a timeframe of perhaps six months for negotiations on 
agriculture to pick up again. 
 
-- Asked about implications for ALCA, FM Amorim 
declined to comment for the moment, on the grounds that 
the subject needed a deeper assessment and that 
anything he would say would be reported nationwide, as 
the press was present in numbers.  He simply noted that 
one lesson had been learned by Brazil: if the agenda is 
too heavy, negotiations become complicated.  Amorim 
made a comparison to flying an overweighted airplane, 
and said he hoped other parties have learned the keep- 
it-simple lesson as well. 
 
-- Amorim likewise declined to respond to the question 
of whether the U.S. strategy to pursue bilateral trade 
agreements would weaken the G20+.  He only commented 
that countries considering negotiating bilaterally with 
the U.S. should think carefully, because to negotiate 
with a country that subsidizes its agricultural sector 
raises the possibility of damaging one\'s own 
agricultural sector. 
-- Amorim also made a reference in the middle of his 
speech to the EU being more protectionist than the U.S. 
 
VIRDEN