US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2412

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 GUATEMALA 002412 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, GT 
SUBJECT: CAMPAIGN POLITICS UPDATE 
 
REF: GUATEMALA 2345 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  With the registration of twelve 
presidential tickets complete, the presidential race has 
narrowed to four main contenders (only the top two in the 
first round, on November 9, will contend in the second round, 
on December 28).  Oscar Berger of the tripartite GANA 
coalition is ahead by all measures, and seems certain to make 
the second round.  Alvaro Colom (National Unity of Hope Party 
(UNE)), leads ruling Guatemalan Republican Front (FRG) 
candidate Efrain Rios Montt for second place in the polls. 
Lionel Lopez Rodas, the National Advancement Party's (PAN) 
standard-bearer, trails behind the three front-runners in the 
polls but has effectively emphasizing a tough anti-crime 
message, responding to voter concerns.  Judicial processes 
still cloud the picture, with continuing court review of Rios 
Montt's candidacy and rumors of coming challenges to Berger. 
With the campaign now in full swing, the candidates' messages 
are flooding the media, and civil society groups are at high 
alert for fraud and political violence.  A presidential 
debate on September 16 did not attract Berger or Rios Montt, 
but gave smaller party candidates the chance to shine and 
question the integrity of published polls showing them out of 
contention.  End Summary. 
 
The Twelve 
-------------- 
 
2.  (U) The following 12 presidential candidates were 
registered with the Electoral Tribunal (TSE) before the 
September 10 deadline, and have until September 18 to 
complete all the documentary requirements for final 
confirmation: 
 
(1) "Frente Republicano Guatemalteco" (FRG) Guatemalan 
Republican Front 
(P) Jose Efrain Rios Montt 
(VP) Edin Raymundo Barrientos 
 
(2) "Unidad Revolucionaria Nacional Guatemalteca" (URNG) 
Guatemalan National Revolutionary Union 
(P) Rodrigo Asturias Amado 
(VP) Pablo Ignacio Ceto Sanchez 
 
(3) "Gran Alianza Nacional" (GANA) Grand National Alliance 
(P) Oscar Berger Perdomo 
(VP) Eduardo Stein Barillas 
 
(4) "Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza" (UNE) National Unity of 
Hope 
(P) Alvaro Colom Caballeros 
(VP) Fernando Andrade Daz-Duran 
 
(5) "Partido de Avanzada Nacional" (PAN) National Advancement 
Party 
(P) Leonel Lopez Rodas 
(VP) Ruben Alfonso Ramrez 
 
(6) "Partido Unionista" (PU) Unionist Party 
(P) Fritz Garca Gallont 
(VP) Hctor Cifuentes 
 
(7) "Democracia Cristiana Guatemalteca" (DCG) Christian 
Democratic Party 
(P) Jacobo Arbenz Villanova 
(VP) Rolando Castro De Leon 
 
(8) "Desarrollo Integral Autentico-Partido Libertador 
Progresista" (DIA-PLP) Authentic Integrated Development Party 
- Progressive Liberation Party 
(P) Eduardo Suger 
(VP) Maritza Ruiz de Vielman 
 
(9) "Cambio Nacional" (CN) National Change 
(P) Manuel Conde Orellana 
(VP) Estuardo Meneses 
 
(10) "Los Verdes" (LV) Green Party 
(P) Rodolfo Rosales Garca-Salas 
(VP) Emilio Recinos 
 
(11) "Union Nacional" (UN) National Union Party 
(P) Fernando Arredondo 
(VP) Jorge Canale Nanne 
 
(12) "Democracia Social Participativa" (DSP) Democratic 
Social Participation 
(P) Jose Angel Lee 
(VP) Americo Cifuentes 
 
Three other parties are running candidates for Congress, and 
mayoralties, without presidential or vice presidential 
candidates: the "Union Democratica" (UD) Democratic Union, 
"Alianza Nueva Nacion" (ANN) New Nation Alliance, and 
"Transparencia" Transparency Party. 
 
Potential Legal Challenges 
-------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) No legal challenges have yet been filed against the 
registration of these candidates, with the exception of Rios 
Montt.  On September 11, the Supreme Court announced that it 
would not hear appeals from the UNE and the GANA's Otto Perez 
Molina of Rios Montt's registration, respecting a 
Constitutional Court order against any further constitutional 
challenges to Rios Montt's candidacy.  The Constitutional 
Court, for its part, has yet to rule on a similar appeal of 
Rios Montt's registration, but is widely expected to reject 
it.  Some FRG leaders claim the GANA is also vulnerable to a 
legal challenge to its registration, which is complicated by 
its three-party alliance.  Another GOG official recently told 
the Ambassador that legal charges may be filed against Berger 
for irregularities in a bus contract he signed years ago as 
mayor of Guatemala City, which could also potentially 
threaten his candidacy. 
 
Battle of the Polls 
------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) Ref reported the results of Vox Latina's latest 
poll, which showed Berger ahead with 38%, Colom in second 
with 18%, and Rios Montt in third with 11%.  Lopez Rodas 
trailed at 7%, and 22% were undecided.  The Vox Latina poll 
also showed Berger handily winning in the second round 
against either Rios Montt or Colom. 
 
5.  GOG sources tell us that the FRG's internal polls, 
supposedly conducted to simulate secret balloting, 
unsurprisingly put Rios Montt in second, at 21%, after 
Berger, with 32% of voter preferences.  According to both 
polls, Colom is in third place with 18% and Lopez Rodas 
trails at 10%.  Lopez Rodas told the Ambassador on September 
11 that his own polling data shows him contending with Colom 
for second place, with 15%.  A GANA-commissioned private 
Noguera poll shows Berger at 45%, Colom in second with 21%, 
Rios Montt in third with 14% and Lopez Rodas following with 
6%, and claims a margin of error of 3.1%.  In the Noguera 
poll, only 9% are undecided.  A Demoscopia poll published in 
"Siglo XXI" on September 16 shows similar results, with 
Berger at 47%, Colom at 14%, Rios Montt at 13%, and Lopez 
Rodas at 7%.  The Demoscopia poll reflects lower rates of 
voter indecision than Vox Latina's poll conducted over the 
same period and claims a margin of error of 2.8%. 
 
6.  (SBU) Colom and URNG presidential candidate Asturias have 
publicly criticized the polls as inflated in favor of Berger, 
and we are hearing rumors of strife within the media over 
distortions of poll results.  The polls consistently show 
voter concern over crime and personal security, and 
unemployment as the two issues on most voters minds. 
 
Debate: 15 minutes of Fame 
-------------------------- 
 
7.  (U) The first public debate involving most registered 
presidential candidates was held on September 16, under 
sponsorship of the Business Center (not to be confused with 
CACIF), OAS and the TSE's Political Party Forum.  The 
Ambassador and other diplomats and dignitaries attended as 
"witnesses of honor."  Berger, Rios Montt and Garcia-Gallont 
did not participate, for which they were roundly jeered by 
the crowd.  Berger and the FRG were singled out for criticism 
from those remaining, the former for inflating poll results, 
the latter for the corruption and ineffectiveness of the 
current government.  None of the candidates said they would 
raise taxes.  All said more could be done with the resources 
now available to the government (including better tax 
collection) and most hinted at austerity programs while 
prioritizing social needs, rather than new spending.  None 
responded to a question about re-certification by criticizing 
the process; instead, they competed to outdo each other on 
the importance of combating organized crime.  Lopez Rodas 
promoted his "tough on crime" platform effectively, promising 
to make dramatic changes to improve security from "day one" 
of his Administration.  Rosales, the Green Party candidate, 
bombastically criticized others, positioning himself as an 
outsider not tainted by previous government service. 
 
8.  (SBU) Colom criticized Berger for inflating the polls, 
asked rhetorically why campesinos are bearing the cost of 
buses bought by Berger when he was mayor, promised to cancel 
a business transaction tax (IEMA), opposed privatization of 
health or education services, promised to fight organized 
crime, and revive a national dialogue and fiscal pact. 
Asturias, the URNG candidate, appeared old and frail, but 
gave reasoned responses, opposing privatization, and 
promoting the URNG's agenda to fully implement the peace 
accords.  Eduardo Suger came off as professorial, often 
beginning his response to softball questions with "this issue 
is very complex..."   Manuel Conde of the National Change 
Party was more energetic, and Arbenz exhibited gravitas but 
his proposals lacked substance.  Following the debate, the 
participants (and the FRG) joined together to denounce the 
manipulation of polls, especially the Demoscopia poll, in 
favor of Berger, insisting that future polls were not 
authorized to use their names and party logos.  The 
opposition press has reacted with studied indignation to this 
charge, and we are currently witnessing a big flap (which 
shall dissipate) as a result. 
 
Campaign Issues/Strategies 
------------------------- 
 
9.  (U) Berger had returned to Guatemala and the stump on 
September 8, after prostate surgery in NY.  Since his return 
he has proposed investing in public works infrastructure 
projects (new capital airport, ring road, highways), to 
generate employment.  On September 11 Berger said he was also 
contemplating tax cuts.  His running-mate, Eduardo Stein, 
publicly proposed a governability pact among political 
parties on the same day.  GANA campaign manager Eduardo 
Gonzalez told the press GANA is not concerned about Berger's 
fall of seven points in the Vox Latina poll, still hopes to 
win in the first round, and there will be no change to 
campaign strategy.  The GANA is still finalizing its plan of 
government. 
 
10.  (SBU) Gen. Rios Montt has stepped down from his post as 
President of Congress to dedicate himself full-time to the 
campaign.  Despite recent rumors of Rios Montt's ill health, 
his running-mate, Edin Barrientos, claimed on September 9 
that the General is showing no signs of slowing down.  The 
FRG has launched a massive media campaign under the slogan 
"Security, Well Being, Justice."  The FRG announced plans to 
visit three or four municipalities each week between Thursday 
and Sunday, giving special attention to areas where major 
media do not penetrate, and keeping its distance from major 
media coverage (apart from paid advertising), which it 
considers biased.  A dominant theme for FRG candidates is 
their intention to "take from the rich and give to the poor." 
 For his part, President Portillo has made statements 
promising to increase the minimum wage by at least 8% (the VP 
later publicly pushed for 18%) and has been reproached by the 
Supreme Electoral Tribunal for overstepping bounds on GOG 
advertising of public works projects. 
 
11.  (U) Colom's team is giddy with the poll results 
uniformly showing Colom's steady climb in popularity, which 
they estimate even higher, at 23%, well above Rios Montt and 
Lopez Rodas.  On the stump, Colom is emphasizing citizen 
security, job creation, poverty reduction, education and 
housing.  Colom has also promised new roads to more 
marginalized municipalities he visits, and was the only 
candidate who showed up at a candidate forum convoked by the 
council of indigenous elders. 
 
12.  (SBU)  Lopez Rodas told the Ambassador on September 11 
that security and job creation are the major campaign issues, 
and he plans to attack them by "putting the Army in the 
streets on January 14 (inauguration day)," outlawing the 
possession of automatic weapons, criminalizing gang 
membership, taking control of the borders and forcefully 
prosecuting the war on drugs, contraband, and trafficking in 
persons.  He said he chose to focus his message on crime and 
jobs after earlier messages on health and education caused 
eyes to glaze.  (Note:  the Noguera poll shows crime at the 
top of voter concerns (58%), followed by the general economic 
situation (25%) and lack of jobs (25%).  End Note.)  When 
pressed by the Ambassador about the dangers of giving the 
Army an internal security role, Lopez Rodas said the show of 
force in the streets would be used to prevent crime until 
corrupt police could be purged and the police force built up 
to the task.  Employment will be generated by a massive 
home-building public works project, and labor peace secured 
by a general labor pact to be negotiated among government, 
business and labor leaders.  The Ambassador concurred that 
greater gun control is needed, welcomed Lopez Rodas' emphasis 
on counter-narcotics, and pitched the shared importance of 
combating trafficking in persons. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
13.  (SBU) Berger's absence from the debate was not 
surprising.  Since Serrano Elias came from behind to win the 
presidency after a similar debate in 1991, front-runners have 
all declined to participate.  It is no surprise either that 
Rios Montt has also avoided public debate.  Given his lack of 
charisma, Colom would be wise to do so in future as well. 
His low-key demeanor translates as weakness in a combative 
format.  In contrast, Lopez Rodas delivery is forceful and 
polished, but strikes us as feigned. 
 
14.  (SBU) While we don't have much faith in any particular 
poll, the general picture they describe implies that in 
Guatemala's two-stage election process, the interesting 
battle is for second place.  With Berger securely leading the 
field (but probably losing support to Colom), the race for 
second place could easily affect the final outcome of the 
elections.  If Rios Montt makes it to the second round with 
Berger, Berger will benefit from a massive anti-FRG vote. 
If, however, Colom or, more improbably (but not impossibly), 
Lopez Rodas join Berger in the second round, Berger loses the 
anti-FRG windfall, and conceivably the presidency. 
HAMILTON