US embassy cable - 03AMMAN6029

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 006029 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA DAS SATTERFIELD, NEA DAS CHENEY, NEA/RA 
LAWSON, NEA/ARN WILLIAMS, NEA/IPA, OES/ENV PAYNE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2008 
TAGS: PREL, SENV, KWBG, JO, IS 
SUBJECT: JORDAN'S RED-DEAD POSTURING--YOU'RE EITHER WITH US 
. . . .  OR WE'LL DO IT ALONE 
 
REF: A) TEL AVIV 5271 B) AMMAN 5999 (NOTAL) 
 
Classified By: CDA DAVID HALE, Reason 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: Jordan,s Planning and Water Ministers, 
Bassem Awadallah and Hazim El-Naser, insisted to visiting NEA 
Senior Science Advisor Charles Lawson that the Red Sea - Dead 
Sea Conveyance (RDC) project feasibility study must happen. 
If the Israelis and Palestinians cannot put the politics of 
such a project aside, "Jordan will go it alone," each 
minister said separately.  GOJ environment-friendly arguments 
about saving the Dead Sea have been overtaken by the 
desalination component of the RDC.  Water is Jordan,s 
biggest challenge, and the pressure is on to identify new 
sources to cope with an unsustainably high birthrate and 
increasing demand.  The long-term solution lies in the RDC, 
argued Awadallah, who was caught off balance when asked to 
consider alternative water sources. 
 
2. (C) Anxious not to lose the spotlight gained at this 
summer,s extraordinary session of the WEF at the Dead Sea, 
Jordan remains resolved to raise the issue at the upcoming 
Dubai IFI meetings (something allegedly agreed to between 
King Abdullah and WB President Wolfensohn) to encourage key 
donors to fund the feasibility study.  Lawson cautioned that 
without Israeli and Palestinian buy-in donors will likely be 
reluctant to support the RDC.  Separately, Israeli MFA 
Multilateral Peace Process Director Yaacov Keidar told us 
that domestic political considerations in Israel were driving 
Jerusalem,s reluctance to support this project; only PM 
Sharon could unblock the Israeli-Palestinian political 
impasse and move forward at this stage.  END SUMMARY. 
 
3. (C) Jordanian officials made their displeasure with 
Israel,s perceived foot-dragging on the draft Terms of 
Reference (TOR) for the Red Sea - Dead Sea Conveyance (RDC) 
feasibility study known to NEA Senior Science Advisor Charles 
Lawson during a series of meetings in Amman September 14-16. 
Explicit in those exchanges were comments from Jordanian 
Minister of Planning, Bassem Awadallah, and Minister of Water 
and Irrigation, Hazim el-Naser, that "we are going to do it," 
regardless of the Palestinians and Israelis.  Awadallah 
related to Lawson that "the King is resolved like nothing 
else" to conduct the RDC feasibility study (and ostensibly 
construct the full-scale project). 
 
4. (C) Explaining that Jordan took a risk last year in 
Johannesburg, rolling out the project with the Israelis, 
Awadallah said that Jordan will move forward with or without 
a resolution of Palestinian-Israeli political differences. 
"We can,t miss any international opportunity to promote 
this," he added, looking forward to the September 23-24 World 
Bank-IMF meetings in Dubai at which he expects the Bank to 
gather a small group of key donors for a presentation on the 
RDC.  The next possible venue to champion the RDC would not 
present itself until next May,s WEF at the Dead Sea, 
unacceptably stalling progress on the project, Awadallah 
said.  (Note:  Jordanian Water Minister El-Naser and Israeli 
Infrastructure Minister Yosef Paritzky have discussed the 
possibility of a Red-Dead session at the January WEF meeting 
in Davos.  End note.) 
 
5. (C) Now that both the Palestinians and Israelis had 
entrenched political positions on the draft TOR, Awadallah 
felt somewhat boxed in by the World Bank,s requirement of 
"letters of intent" to participate from the Israelis and 
Palestinians.  He bemoaned the fact that Israel had taken so 
long to respond to the draft TOR and, when the comments 
arrived last week, raised issues of sovereignty and political 
objections that threaten to derail the project. 
 
 6. (C) Lawson confirmed Awadallah,s fears, relating the 
gist of his September 8-11 meetings with Israeli officials on 
the topic (Ref A) and underscoring the concern of both 
Israelis and Palestinians about language in the TOR that may 
be prejudicial to future final status negotiations.  In an 
effort to bridge the gap, Lawson told Awadallah that he had 
encouraged the Israelis and Palestinians to focus only on the 
technical aspects of the study.  It was becoming clearer, 
however, that Jordan and movement on the RDC are hostage to 
Israeli and Palestinian political posturing.  Further, Lawson 
commented, while the Israelis and Palestinians wish to 
support Jordan in its quest for additional water, neither of 
them anticipates large benefits from the project itself, 
making them less flexible in their willingness to abandon 
their political positions. 
 
7. (C) According to Awadallah, he had received a commitment, 
in principle, from Palestinian Minister of Planning Nabil 
Kassis to support Jordan on the RDC.  (NOTE:  This doesn,t 
jibe with what we heard last week in Ramallah from Kassis, 
who said that the Palestinian's riparian status, as described 
in the draft TOR, was non-negotiable. (Ref A).)  Awadallah 
said that El-Naser,s positive meeting with Israeli Minister 
of Infrastructure Paritsky in Aqaba on August 28 had led the 
Jordanians to believe that they had achieved consensus on a 
trilateral technical committee for the RDC.  So, Awadallah 
asserted, it was with disappointment and frustration that 
they learned of Israeli reluctance to approve the draft TOR 
as written by the World Bank. 
 
8. (C) Lawson received a similar exasperated readout on the 
RDC feasibility study from Water Minister El-Naser. 
Referring to the Israeli comments on the draft TOR, the 
minister said "Jordan questions Israel,s interest in the 
project; we are suspicious of their intentions."  While he 
talked positively of the "preferred option to work together 
with the Palestinians and Israelis," El-Naser confirmed that 
Jordan is prepared to move ahead alone.  According to 
El-Naser, the King said, "if they do not want to join in, we 
will do it anyway."  Confirming Awadallah's hints, El-Naser 
said, "We are no more environmentally conscious than the 
Israelis or Palestinians; we are in need of the water" from 
this project.  "After 2015 we have no more new resources to 
tap," he added.  This was the first such admission to us by a 
GOJ official--and no less the one who has spearheaded the 
marketing of Red - Dead as a "Save the Dead Sea" scheme, not 
just a large scale desalination project. 
 
9. (C) El-Naser said Jordan will proceed with the RDC, 
regardless of Israeli or Palestinian involvement.  Explaining 
that a modified version of the mega-project would involve 
only desalination of Red Sea water, he claimed it could be 
built for about US $700 million.  (Comment: That price would 
be for the construction of the conveyance itself only.  The 
cost of constructing the desalination facilities would be an 
additional US $1-2 billion, depending on the final capacity 
desired.  End comment.)  When asked about seeking neighboring 
states, approval for conducting such a project with 
significant transboundary physical and environmental 
repercussions, he said that Israel does not seem to care 
about the sewage it dumps into the Jordan River north of the 
Dead Sea.  Why should Jordan be held accountable to more 
stringent standards, El-Naser asked rhetorically? 
 
10. (C) Lawson queried El-Naser about identifying new sources 
of water (other than the RDC desalination scheme) for the 
country.  The minister was non-responsive.  He did not want 
to talk about desalination options on the Gulf of Aqaba, the 
water from which could be pumped to Amman through the Disi 
Aquifer project pipeline.  Nor was he receptive to reopening 
discussions about a possible Mediterranean - Dead Sea canal, 
which many hydrologists agree is more economically feasible 
and less disruptive environmentally.  Lawson got a similar 
disinterested response from Awadallah on RDC alternatives. 
 
11. (C) We understand from the Israeli DCM that the newly 
accredited Israeli Ambassador, Yacov Hades Handlesman, got a 
very direct appeal from El-Naser to support the RDC 
feasibility study during this first meeting on September 15. 
El-Naser did not mince words about Jordan,s frustration and 
disappointment over Israel,s politicization of the TOR. 
El-Naser claims he has argued with the Israelis that this is 
a technical study, which can be sanitized of political 
stumbling blocks if the parties so desire. 
 
12. (C) On the margins of another Arab-Israeli multilateral 
meeting, Israeli MFA Multilateral Peace Process Director 
Yaacov Keidar told us domestic political considerations are 
holding up more ardent Israeli support for the RDC project. 
At present, it was politically untenable to enter into any 
kind of agreement or activity that hints at Palestinian 
sovereignty.  The Israeli public would not stand for it and 
no politician would put his/her name to it, despite Israel,s 
unfailing desire to support Jordan as a peace partner.  It 
would take PM Sharon, Keidar asserted, to make this delicate 
decision; he underscored the Israeli Embassy's recommendation 
to El-Naser that Jordanian PM Abul Ragheb phone Sharon 
directly. 
 
13. (C) COMMENT:  Without Israeli and Palestinian consensus 
on the World Bank,s TOR we believe the RDC feasibility study 
is ill-fated.  Should Jordan proceed alone, it lays itself 
open to criticism from its neighbors and the international 
community, and sets itself up for charges of conducting a 
biased study aimed at promoting the project,s feasibility. 
Also, international donors are unlikely to provide funding 
for a Jordan-only feasibility study.  Both Awadallah and 
El-Naser, joint architects of Jordan,s mega-project, have 
the most to gain from successful implementation of the RDC 
and remain its biggest advocates.  Of course, with the most 
personal equities invested, they also have the most to lose. 
King Abdullah has bought into the scheme.  However, we 
question whether senior Jordanian officials have sufficiently 
explored cheaper and more practical options for securing new 
water resources for one of the world,s most water starved 
countries. 
HALE