US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB2033

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ZAGREB 002033 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CENTCOM FOR CCJG/IC3 MCELROY 
DEFENSE FOR OSD/DASD-EURASIA (RICARDEL) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PARM, MARR, MOPS, IZ, HR, Defense Reform (Mil & NATO) 
SUBJECT: CROATIA DEFERS DECISION ON TROOP DEPLOYMENT TO IRAQ 
 
REF: ZAGREB 1364 
 
Classified By: Poloff A.F.Godfrey for reasons 1.5 (b,d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C) The Croatian government has deferred plans to deploy 
a small military contingent to Iraq.  Since the government 
and parliament are expected to dissolve in advance of 
parliamentary elections predicted for late November, it is 
now unlikely that an Iraq deployment will take place before 
2004.  Citing unfavorable public opinion and wishing to avoid 
the deployment becoming an election issue, Foreign Minister 
Picula told the Ambassador on September 17 that the 
Government would not forward a deployment proposal to the 
Croatian parliament for ratification.  End Summary. 
 
In June, Croatia Decides to Deploy to Iraq... 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) On June 12, the Croatian Government made a formal 
"determination" that it intended to deploy troops to Iraq 
(ref).  We took this decision as it was intended: a display 
of political will in advance of technical discussions to 
gather details needed for final parliamentary approval of 
deployment.  Following the June 12 decision, military - to - 
military technical talks were authorized and Croatia began to 
plan seriously for deployment.  A Croatian Liaison Officer 
was deployed to U.S. Central Command on September 3 and 
tentative plans to deploy a small contingent of special 
operations forces to Iraq under U.S. command began to take 
shape.  Recognizing the political sensitivity of taking an 
unpopular decision in an election year, FM Picula asked the 
Ambassador at an August 27 lunch for our help in convincing 
potential opponents in the parliament to support a measure 
when it came to vote. 
 
But As Elections Approach, Political Leaders Get Cold Feet 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
3.  (C) Despite private statements of support from key 
political leaders, public opinion against deployment remains 
strong.  Late on September 15, we were informed that 
President Mesic had convened a meeting earlier that day at 
which he declared his opposition to deploying troops to Iraq. 
 We understand that PM Racan, FM Picula DefMin Antunovic and 
Parliament Speaker Tomcic were present at the meeting.  While 
Antunovic reportedly declared that the troops were ready and 
could carry out the mission, Racan's focus was on elections 
and the likely political cost of deployment to coalition 
parties. 
 
FonMin Picula Delivers the Bad News 
----------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) On September 17, Foreign Minister Picula called in 
the Ambassador and informed him that "in view of recent 
developments, both domestically and on the ground in Iraq, 
the Government has decided to postpone the decision on 
sending troops to Iraq."  Picula explained that the GoC 
sought to keep the Iraq deployment issue from becoming an 
issue in the upcoming election and questioned whether, in the 
current environment, a decision to deploy would garner the 
two-thirds majority in parliament required by Croatia's 
Constitution to deploy forces abroad.  Picula was careful to 
make a clear distinction between Croatia's continuing 
commitment to the anti-terrorist coalition and its hesitance 
on Iraq. 
 
Ambassador Pushes Back 
---------------------- 
 
5.  (C) The Ambassador said that the decision to delay was 
"very disappointing" and that it went back on the June 12 GoC 
political commitment to deploy.  The decision would not be 
welcome in Washington and would certainly have an effect on 
the bilateral relationship.  He rejected Picula's assertion 
that the parliament would not have approved a GoC decision to 
deploy, since in the course of our lobbying efforts we had 
assurances that if PM Racan's SDP (of which Picula is a 
member) backed the proposal, it would have more than enough 
support to pass.  The Ambassador made it clear that he 
understood the GoC was bowing to pressure from Mesic and that 
he was dismayed by its inability to show leadership on this 
issue.  He said the decision to back out of the decision to 
deploy was an "embarrassment" to the Croatian Armed Forces 
who were clearly ready to deploy.  Picula shrugged, saying 
that "events in Iraq and Croatian elections are on a 
 
collision course."  The GoC decision to defer debate on 
deployment became public on September 18. 
 
Little Chance to Review Deployment before 2004 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
6.  (C)  Croatia's government and parliament are expected to 
dissolve in mid-October in advance of elections predicted for 
the end of November.  Although Picula claimed the decision to 
deploy to Iraq is only being "delayed," it is unlikely that 
it could be revisited by the government and parliament before 
early 2004. 
FRANK 
 
 
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