US embassy cable - 03SANTODOMINGO5003

UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 005003 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAR (MCISAAC) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, DR 
SUBJECT: PLD PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CONCERNS IN THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 
 
REF: SANTO DOMINGO 4915 
 
 1. (SBU)  SUMMARY.  Leaders of the leading opposition party, 
the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD), have raised with us 
three concerns about upcoming presidential elections in the 
Dominican Republic:  doubts about the impartiality of the 
Junta Central Electoral (JCE ) Central Election Commission), 
alleged interference of the military in the campaign, and the 
need for international election observers.  The politicians, 
in a meeting September 8, spoke with one voice and appeared 
professional and well organized, in contrast to the current 
fractious behavior of the ruling PRD and the continuing 
schism in the opposition PRSC.  PLD is confident that its 
candidate, former President Leonel Fernandez, will win the 
election.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (SBU)  PLD Secretary General Reinaldo Pared Perez and 
three other top party officials told EcoPol Counselor and 
poloffs that PLD candidate, former president (1996-2000) 
Leonel Fernandez has excellent prospects for the May 2004 
presidential election.  The leaders accused the Central 
Election Commission (JCE) of being biased in favor of the 
ruling Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD).  They said that 
the PRD has six of the nine judges on the commission and 
controls each JCE chamber, one charged with overseeing 
election logistics and the other responsible for resolving 
disputes or allegations of electoral irregularities.  The PLD 
is demanding non-partisan oversight of both branches. 
(Comment: The JCE has told us the administrative preparations 
are on schedule, but much remains to be done.  End comment.) 
 
 
3. (SBU)  PLD campaign coordinator Francisco Javier Garcia 
Fernandez denounced incidents of military involvement in the 
campaign, contrary to the Dominican constitution.  He showed 
photos of uniformed soldiers removing PLD campaign signs and 
flags, allegedly upon the order of a senior officer linked to 
the Dominican army commander, Chief of Staff Radhames 
Zorrilla Ozuna, a presidential appointee.  The PLD officials 
cited recent political statements by the army and navy 
chiefs.  Garcia speculated that the military could become 
involved in the election at President Mejia,s request, along 
the lines of the tactics of President Chavez in Venezuela. 
(Comment:  This was hyperbole.  There is no indication the 
Dominican Republic is headed down the Venezuelan path.  End 
comment.) 
 
4. (SBU)  Secretary General Pared and his colleagues 
requested the Embassy\'s assistance in securing international 
election observers for the election next May.  They advocated 
an observer presence as early as six months ahead, rather 
than the usual few days in advance of the balloting (\"last 
week, if possible\").  They asserted that the sooner the 
observers arrive, the less likely it would be that President 
Mejia would use questionable or even illegal tactics to win. 
 
5. (SBU)  Despite their concerns, the PLD officials were 
confident that Leonel Fernandez would win the elections. 
Garcia cited voter preference polls showing Fernandez with 56 
pct to 62 pct regardless of who runs against him as the PRD 
candidate.  In one campaign scenario, with the third party 
PRSC supporting the PRD candidate, Fernandez would garner 82 
pct of the vote. 
 
6. (SBU)  PLD officials are concerned that Mejia will 
misappropriate government resources, especially money, 
personnel and vehicles, in order to favor his faction of the 
PRD.  Officials also raised the possibility of violent 
demonstrations during the campaign. Any violence, the PLD 
officials believe, would be due to the country\'s economic 
woes and dissatisfaction with the electoral process. 
 
7. (SBU)  COMMENT.  The PLD is a well-organized party, with a 
coherent and clear message, and Fernandez ) whose previous 
tenure is remembered as a time of economic prosperity - is a 
strong candidate.  In contrast, the ruling but fractious PRD 
continues to argue over how to choose its presidential 
candidate. (Septel will report on the Ambassador\'s meeting 
with Fernandez.) The PLD\'s election concerns are valid but 
probably overdrawn, provided the JCE allows access to a newly 
constituted election oversight committee of civic leaders 
(reftel) and authorizes international election observers at 
the proper time.  Septel will report on JCE activities. END 
COMMENT. 
HERTELL