US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO1605

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 001605 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  09-15-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PHUM, MV, Maldives 
SUBJECT:  Maldivian presidential election process kicks 
off; No signs of opposition to President Gayoom yet 
 
Refs:  Colombo 1493, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of 
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (U) In an announcement made late last week and 
reported on the website of the government-controlled 
newspaper "Haveeru," the Maldivian Elections Commission 
has begun soliciting applications from possible 
candidates for the 2003 presidential election. 
Applications will be accepted for a one-week period 
lasting from September 12-19.  According to the 
announcement, Maldivian law sets out the following 
criteria for eligibility: 
 
"Any man who is over 35 years old, who is sane, who is a 
Sunni Muslim, who is a person capable of carrying out 
presidential responsibilities, who has not been 
convicted for any crimes under Islamic Sharia law, who 
is not convicted of fraud, and who is not married to a 
foreigner, can run in the presidential election." 
 
2.  (U) The Elections Commission's announcement formally 
kicks off the Maldivian presidential selection process. 
Next steps in the process include: 
 
-- A three-member committee of the Elections Commission 
will screen the applications received from possible 
candidates.  The Speaker of the Majlis will then 
announce the final list of candidates. 
 
-- In a secret ballot expected to take place later this 
month, the 48-member Majlis (parliament) will select one 
candidate from among the list. 
 
-- The winner will then be approved (or not) in a 
"yes/no" national referendum, which is slated to take 
place in October. 
 
-- The inauguration will take place in November. 
 
3.  (C) COMMENT:  President Gayoom, who has been in 
office since 1978, remains the hands down favorite to 
win his sixth five-year term.  Mission has checked with 
a variety of contacts in the Maldives who confirm that 
they have not heard of anyone planning to run against 
Gayoom in the Majlis vote, thus far.  That said, in his 
last race in 1998, Gayoom faced some token opposition 
and there will probably be several Maldivians who throw 
their hats in the ring this time around.  Given 
generally favorable economic indices and little sign of 
serious political dissonance, however, Gayoom's path to 
a sixth term appears quite smooth at this time.  The DCM 
will be in Male from September 16-17 and will take the 
political temperature at that time.  END COMMENT. 
 
4.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD