US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO1615

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001615 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  09-16-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, MOPS, PINS, CE, LTTE - Peace Process, Political Parties 
SUBJECT:  Cohabitation dustup over security of key port 
intensifies as President sends nasty letter to PM 
 
Refs:  (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 140259Z Sep 03 
-      (B) Colombo 1606, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead. 
Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  President Kumaratunga has sent a 
letter to the prime minister harshly complaining that 
the GSL is not taking Tamil Tiger military positioning 
around Trincomalee harbor seriously enough.  The PM has 
not yet sent a response to the widely publicized letter, 
but the GSL has already denied that Trincomalee is in 
imminent danger.  Most observers believe that there is 
little merit in the president's charges, but the latest 
dustup is straining already tense cohabitation ties. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
================== 
President's Rocket 
================== 
 
2.  (SBU) President Kumaratunga has sent a harsh letter 
to Prime Minister Wickremesinghe complaining that the 
GSL is not taking Liberation Tiger of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 
military positioning around Trincomalee harbor in the 
east seriously enough.  The letter, which is quite long 
and detailed, was sent to the prime minister over the 
September 13-14 weekend and then leaked to the press, 
receiving widespread publicity in September 16 
newspapers.  In sending the letter, the president was 
essentially echoing recent attacks made on the 
government by members of her People's Alliance (PA) 
party, including by former foreign minister Lakshman 
Kadirgamar.  The president made the following key points 
in the letter: 
 
-- The president stated that the military had determined 
that the LTTE had established 12 new camps and five 
temporary camps in the Trincomalee area since the 
signing of the February 2002 ceasefire accord. 
 
-- The LTTE had also established a new "Sea Tiger" base 
located just south of Trincomalee harbor, according to 
the Sri Lankan navy. 
 
-- The genesis of the LTTE's recent attacks on Muslims 
living in the Trincomalee area revolved around the 
group's desire to control the Muslim-dominated Mutur 
area located just south of Trincomalee harbor. 
 
-- The president also quotes from a section of the 
November 2002 Defense Assessment of the Sri Lankan 
military by PACOM.  The section quoted by the president 
in her letter essentially states that LTTE military 
positioning in the vicinity of Trincomalee is strong and 
that Sri Lankan security forces are having a difficult 
time securing the area from possible attack. 
(Note:  The PACOM report was also highlighted in a 
September 14 article in the SUNDAY TIMES newspaper, 
which covered many of the same points made by the 
president in her letter.) 
 
3.  (U) Wrapping up, the president caustically informed 
the PM that she had repeatedly tried to warn him about 
the developing situation, stating: 
 
"You would agree that I have made numerous attempts in 
vain to advise you and some of your ministers in the 
hope of turning the country away from impending 
disaster.  This was done as a final attempt at 
cohabitational governance.  I believe now is the time to 
inform the people who are my only masters of these 
facts." 
 
She concludes her letter by requesting several actions 
from the prime minister, including that he "refrain from 
concealing and distorting the truth regarding the 
security situation in Trincomalee" and that he "avoid 
all further acts of omission and commission that would 
compromise the security and sovereignty of Sri Lanka." 
================================== 
GSL says Trincomalee not in Danger 
================================== 
 
4.  (C) Mission checked with a contact in the PM's 
office who reported that the prime minister had not yet 
sent a response to the president's letter.  The 
government has already publicly addressed many of the 
issues raised in the letter, however.  On September 11, 
for example, G.L. Peiris, the Minister of Enterprise 
Development and chief government spokesman, stated in 
his weekly press conference that the situation in the 
Trincomalee region was not dire in any way.  Peiris went 
on to state the following:  "The minister of defense is 
confident and we want to assure the country that the 
government can deal with any situation and that the 
security of the Eastern Province and the coast of 
Trincomalee is not in danger."  Regarding the 
accusations from the PA, Peiris rejected them out of 
hand, stating "the government view is that these are 
spoiler tactics.  Such tactics are alarming, 
destructive, and irresponsible."  Peiris also said there 
had only been one confirmed military camp established by 
the LTTE in the vicinity of Trincomalee since the 
ceasefire accord was entered into, not the numerous 
camps the PA was claiming.  (Note:  The LTTE has 
repeatedly refused to vacate this camp despite a ruling 
by the monitors.) 
 
=========================== 
President Playing Politics? 
=========================== 
 
5.  (C) Observers that Mission has spoken with believe 
that there is little merit in the president's charges. 
Taranjit Sandhu, political counselor at the Indian High 
Commission, for example, told polchief on September 16 
that he thought the president was playing politics in 
making the charges re Trincomalee and was simply trying 
to gain an edge over her cohabitation rival, the prime 
minister.  Sandhu added that he thought that the LTTE 
had long been in a strong position around Trincomalee 
and, contrary to the president's charges, there was no 
indication that the group formed more of a threat now 
than a year ago.  Kethesh Loganathan, an analyst at the 
Center for Policy Alternatives, a local think-tank, told 
poloff on September 16 that he thought the president was 
publicly raising the situation around Trincomalee at 
this time in order to damage the PM's credibility and 
put him on the defensive. 
 
======= 
COMMENT 
======= 
 
6.  (C) The precise military balance of power around 
Trincomalee is controversial, with views in Sri Lanka 
strongly colored by attitudes pro or con toward the 
peace process.  The public charges by Kadirgamar and the 
President are based on a briefing given to them by flag- 
rank naval officers -- indicating that some in the Sri 
Lankan military may feel that the threat around 
Trincomalee is serious.  Our take is that there is 
little doubt that the LTTE is in a strong position in 
the eastern region, as it has been for years.  It is 
even quite probable that the LTTE's overall military 
position in the east vis-a-vis the Sri Lankan military 
is better now than before the peace process began in 
December 2001.  That said, it is not clear that the 
localized situation in Trincomalee has seriously 
deteriorated in past months as the president 
specifically asserts.  In any case, our guess is that 
the immediate net impact of the president's letter will 
probably be to raise cohabitation tensions -- which are 
already high -- another notch.  END COMMENT. 
 
7.  (U) Minimize considered. 
LUNSTEAD