US embassy cable - 03ANKARA5791

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 005791 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: LOCAL AK PARETY BOSSES CONFIDENT IN 
PARTY'S PERFORMANCE, SEE BETTER THINGS TO COME 
 
 
(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter. 
Reason: 1.5 (b,d). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: In separate early September meetings, ruling 
AK Party bosses in Ankara discussed signs of improving 
economic conditions, local elections, and intra-party 
politics.  Poloff met with Hamdi Balaban of Ankara's 
left-leaning Yenimahalle district and Orhan Kaya of Altindag, 
one of Ankara's poorer, working class districts. End Summary. 
 
 
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Local Conditions Improving -- a Little 
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2. (C) Kaya and Balaban -- both of whom own small local 
businesses -- claimed there have been some signs recently of 
economic recovery in their respective districts.  Kaya could 
not point to any concrete indication in terms of jobs, but he 
said people feel confident that the economy is not heading 
toward another crisis.  Balaban asserted that compared to 
this time last year, there are not nearly as many apartments 
for rent in Yenimahalle.  He took this as a sign that the 
economic situation for some, at least, has improved. 
 
 
3. (C) Nevertheless, Balaban acknowledged that very few new 
businesses have emerged and that hardly any existing 
businesses are hiring.  As a result, Balaban explained, his 
constituents come to him for assistance in finding jobs or in 
financing business projects.  People believe he can solve 
their problems, because he is the local representative of the 
AK Government.  Noting that his constituents keep him busy 24 
hours a day, a seemingly exhausted Balaban claimed that his 
office has very few resources to help those in need and 
generally steers them to other local organizations and NGOs. 
On occasion, Balaban acts as a liaison with Ankara 
municipality, a function made easier, he said, after current 
mayor Melih Gokcek joined AK last month. 
 
 
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Local Elections: Nothing is Decided Yet 
--------------------------------------- 
 
 
4. (C) Both Kaya and Balaban were at pains to point out that 
AK has not yet chosen its candidate to run for mayor of 
Ankara in local elections, currently scheduled for early next 
spring.  They acknowledged that Gokcek is the favorite, but 
AK will not make any official announcements until the 
completion of the party's general convention Oct. 12.  Kaya 
said AK will be conducting Ankara-wide polling research, upon 
which it will base its decisions.  He also cryptically noted 
that "you never know, maybe a third candidate (note: not 
Gokcek, and not Turgut Altinok, current AK mayor of Ankara's 
conservative Kecioren district) will emerge." 
 
 
5. (C) Although Balaban joked that AK might ship Gokcek off 
to run for mayor of Istanbul, he views the current mayor as a 
skilled political operator.  Balaban told poloff that he went 
to see Gokcek to congratulate him on joining AK and to convey 
some of his constituents' concerns.  Gokcek, he explained, 
simply picked up the phone, made a few calls, and solved the 
problems. 
 
 
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AK Strong, But About to Become Stronger? 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
6. (C) Kaya and Balaban expressed confidence that AK will do 
well in the upcoming local elections, claiming that no 
current political party poses a threat to AK -- at least 
right now.  They are dismissive of main opposition CHP and 
the xenophobic Genc Party of Motorola deadbeat Cem Uzan, 
whose financial empire is being dismantled in a series of 
corruption investigations.  Neither believes that the 
so-called Red Apple (Kizilelma) movement -- a coalition of 
far-left and far-right quasi fascists that has garnered some 
recent media attention.  In fact, Balaban claimed never to 
have heard of the movement. 
 
 
7. (C) Despite what they see as AK's continuing success, 
Balaban candidly acknowledged that said he and his colleagues 
at the local level believe there will be a cabinet shuffle 
after the upcoming party convention.  He said this will allow 
P.M. Erdogan to install more ministers closer to him than to 
F.M. Gul, who doled out most of the current portfolios while 
serving as P.M. earlier this year and whom Erdogan sees as a 
rival.  Balaban pointed out that his party likes to talk 
about having democracy in political parties but, in practice, 
this can lead to a cumbersome decision-making process.  "It 
will be better to have a cabinet 100% behind Erdogan." 
EDELMAN