US embassy cable - 00HARARE2204

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002204 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02204  01 OF 02  241241Z 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2010 
TAGS: PREL, ZI, US, SF, WA, MZ, ZA, PGOV 
SUBJECT: PROPOSAL FOR POTUS TO ENGAGE MUGABE BY 
TELEPHONE ON CURRENT DISTURBANCES IN ZIMBABWE 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASON 1.5 
(D). 
 
1.  (C) RECENT, PRESIDENTIALLY DIRECTED EVENTS HAVE 
TAKEN ZIMBABWE TO THE VERGE OF CRISIS.  WE BELIEVE A 
STRONG AND HIGH-LEVEL MESSAGE APPEALING FOR CALM, 
RESTRAINT AND A RETURN TO DEMOCRACY AND RESPECT FOR THE 
RULE OF LAW AND HUMAN RIGHTS IS CRITICAL.  IN THIS 
CONNECTION, I STRONGLY URGE THAT PRESIDENT DELIVER SUCH 
A MESSAGE VIA A TELEPHONE CALL AT THE EARLIEST 
OPPORTUNITY TO PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE. 
 
2.  (C) WITH THE PROBABILITY OF BEING DRIVEN FROM OFFICE 
BY THE FIRST VIABLE OPPOSITION CHALLENGE IN TWENTY 
YEARS, ROBERT MUGABE HAS UNLEASHED A REIGN OF TERROR 
AGAINST THE RIVAL MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) 
AND THIS COUNTRY'S WHITE FARMERS.  THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE 
BELIEVES THE LATTER TO BE BANKROLLING THE OPPOSITION 
PARTY AND HELPING TO RECRUIT AND ORGANIZE ITS RURAL 
CONSTITUENCY.  MUGABE HAS USED MEMBERS OF THE NATIONAL 
LIBERATION WAR VETERANS' ASSOCIATION AND THE STATE 
SECURITY APPARATUS TO PERPETRATE THE VIOLENCE.  IT IS A 
HARDLY SPONTANEOUS OR NATIONAL MOVEMENT; MOST RIGHT- 
THINKING ZIMBABWEANS ARE REPELLED BY THE FARM 
OCCUPATIONS.  WITHIN THE LAST SEVEN DAYS TWO MDC PARTY 
OPERATIVES WERE KILLED IN A FIREBOMB ATTACK ON THEIR 
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VEHICLE, TWO WHITE FARMERS WERE FATALLY SHOT, A SCORE 
WERE BEATEN TO WITHIN AN INCH OF THEIR LIVES, AND 
OSTENSIBLE WAR VETERANS RAPED A PAIR OF WHITE WOMEN IN 
THEIR FARMHOUSE NEAR HARARE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.  THE 
"WAR VETERANS" HAVE BATTERED HUNDREDS OF BLACK FARM 
WORKERS; STOLEN OR DESTROYED THEIR PROPERTY, AND KILLED 
AN UNKNOWN NUMBER.  TO THEIR CREDIT, THE COMMERCIAL 
FARMERS UNION HAS INSTRUCTED ITS MEMBERS NOT TO RESORT 
TO VIOLENCE, TAKING SOME OF THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSION 
OUT OF THE OPERATION, AND MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR THE 
OBJECTIVE VIEWER TO DECIDE WHO IS AT FAULT.  THE POLICE, 
AT MUGABE'S INSTRUCTION, HAVE LARGELY STOOD ON THE 
SIDELINES AND PASSIVELY WATCHED THE SPECTACLE OF INJURY 
AND DESTRUCTION. 
 
3.  (C) WHILE MUGABE AND THE LEADERS OF THE RULING ZANU- 
PF PUT THE VIOLENCE IN THE CONTEXT OF REMOVING THE LAST 
AND MOST UNJUST VESTIGE OF COLONIAL RULE, THE OWNERSHIP 
OF THE LAND, IN OUR JUDGMENT THE STRUGGLE IS ALL ABOUT 
POWER: WHO GETS IT AND WHO KEEPS IT.  THE PRESIDENT 
STANDS TO LOSE SOME OF IT IN THE STILL UNSCHEDULED 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION.  IF THE RULING PARTY LOSES 
ENOUGH SEATS, SAY OVER 50 PERCENT, MDC LEADER MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI TELLS US THAT MUGABE WOULD STEP DOWN, 
 
SIPDIS 
UNACCUSTOMED TO GOVERNING WITH AN OPPOSITION THAT WOULD 
ACT AS A REAL CHECK TO UNTRAMMELED EXECUTIVE POWER. 
MUGABE'S VIEW OF POWER IS MANICHEAN: EITHER YOU HAVE IT 
ALL OR YOU HAVE NOTHING.  MOREOVER, THE ZIMBABWEAN 
PRESIDENT MUST KNOW THAT THERE ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH 
PEOPLE IN ZIMBABWE WITH A GOOD REASON TO KILL HIM, AND 
THAT AS AN EX-PRESIDENT HE WOULD NOT LAST LONG, AT LEAST 
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STAYING IN THE COUNTRY HE HELPED FOUND.  THEREFORE, WE 
THINK THAT HE WILL NOT CALL FOR AN ELECTION UNTIL HE IS 
CERTAIN THAT HE WILL WIN IT OVERWHELMINGLY.  IF HIS 
POLITICAL NOSE TELLS HIM THAT CONDITIONS DO NOT EXIST 
FOR THAT OUTCOME TO OCCUR WITHIN THE TIME FRAME 
PRESCRIBED BY THE CONSTITUTION, THERE IS SUFFICIENT 
TURMOIL IN THE COUNTRY FOR HIM TO DECLARE MARTIAL LAW OR 
A STATE OF EMERGENCY, WHICH HE COULD USE TO SCRUB THE 
ELECTION AND RULE BY DECREE. 
 
4.  (C) WE HAVE MADE A NUMBER OF DEMARCHES TO MINISTERS 
AND EVEN TO PRESIDENT MUGABE HIMSELF TO ENFORCE THE LAW. 
I HAVE PURSUED OUR DONOR COLLEAGUES WITH VIGOR TO WEIGH 
IN JOINTLY WITH US TO THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT, BUT 
HAVE HEARD NOTHING BUT DEMURRALS, TEMPORIZING, AND EVEN 
A CLEAR "NO;" THEY ALL WANT THEIR CAPITALS TO TAKE THE 
LEAD.  I THINK THAT THE TIME HAS COME FOR US TO RATCHET 
UP THE PRESSURE UNILATERALLY.  THE NEXT STEP, IN MY 
VIEW, IS TO REQUEST THE PRESIDENT TO MAKE A TELEPHONE 
CALL TO MUGABE.  I MUST STRESS THAT IT NEEDS TO BE 
NOTHING LESS THAN A TELEPHONE CALL, AS A LETTER COULD 
VERY WELL BE IGNORED (MUGABE WOULD KNOW THAT IT HAD BEEN 
DRAFTED BY A SUBORDINATE AND LIKELY NOT EVEN SEEN BY THE 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO6697 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  INL-01   DODE-00 
      DOEE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EUR-01   FBIE-00  VC-01    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00     AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00 
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    IRM-00   SSO-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  R-00     PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /010W 
                  ------------------4F2F90  241241Z /38 
O 241244Z APR 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5826 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK 
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002204 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02204  02 OF 02  241241Z 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2010 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI, US, SF, WA, MZ, ZA 
SUBJECT: PROPOSAL FOR POTUS TO ENGAGE MUGABE BY 
TELEPHONE ON CURRENT DISTURBANCES IN ZIMBABWE 
 
PRESIDENT.  ALSO, THE CLEARANCE PROCESS MAY RESULT IN A 
MESSAGE THAT IS EITHER EQUIVOCAL OR TOOTHLESS.  WHAT IS 
OCCURRING HERE DEMANDS MORE.  WHILE POTUS HAS NOT 
DIRECTLY ENGAGED MUGABE IN THE PAST, I BELIEVE THAT HIS 
PERSONAL WARMTH, STYLE, AND DEMONSTRATED COMMITMENT TO 
AFRICA WILL GO A LONG WAY.  IF THE PRESIDENT IS 
UNAVAILABLE, THEN STRONG CONSIDERATION SHOULD BE GIVEN 
TO ASKING VICE PRESIDENT GORE TO PLACE THE CALL. 
 
5.  (C) THE PRINCIPAL PITFALL IN A TELEPHONE CALL IS 
THAT MUGABE WILL MAKE AN EFFORT TO DRAW THE PRESIDENT 
INTO A DEBATE ON THE LAND ISSUE IN ZIMBABWE, AND THE 
USG'S OSTENSIBLE OBLIGATIONS IN THAT REGARD.  WE WOULD 
URGE THAT THE PRESIDENT STEER AWAY FROM THE TOPIC TO THE 
EXTENT POSSIBLE, AND FOCUS ON THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY'S VIEW OF RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE AND WHAT 
IT COULD MEAN DOWN THE ROAD.  WITHOUT MINCING WORDS, THE 
BEST TACTICAL APPROACH IN THIS CONVERSATION WOULD BE TO 
EMPHASIZE HISTORY'S VIEW OF LEADERS: THE LAURELS FOR 
THOSE WHO ARE LARGE ENOUGH TO RISE TO THE DEMANDS OF A 
SITUATION, VERSUS BRICKBATS OR OBLIVION FOR THOSE WHO 
HAVE BEEN BLINDED BY SHORT-TERM CIRCUMSTANCE.  MUGABE 
VALUES HIS LEGACY AND MAY WELL PROVE MOST RECEPTIVE TO 
AN APPROACH ALONG THESE LINES.  THE PRESIDENT SHOULD 
STRESS TO MUGABE THAT: 
 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  02204  02 OF 02  241241Z 
-- WHILE NOT PULLING PUNCHES WITH REGARDS TO U.S. 
CONCERNS ABOUT SUCH ISSUES AS THE GOZ'S FAILURE TO 
UPHOLD THE RULE OF LAW AND MUGABE'S PUBLIC STATEMENTS 
THAT CAN BE READ AS AN INCITEMENT TO RACIAL OR POLITICAL 
VIOLENCE, WE HAVE MADE CLEAR OUR DESIRE TO WORK WITH 
ZIMBABWE BOTH TO ADDRESS THE STILL-UNRESOLVED LAND 
ISSUE, AND TO HELP HALT THE COUNTRY'S DOWNWARD ECONOMIC 
AND POLITICAL SPIRAL; 
 
-- AS CHIEF EXECUTIVE OF THE REPUBLIC OF ZIMBABWE, 
MUGABE'S FIRST RESPONSIBILITY IS TO ENSURE THAT THE RULE 
OF LAW IS UPHELD; 
 
-- THE U.S. VIEWS ZIMBABWE AS A FELLOW DEMOCRACY, AND 
THAT IN DEMOCRACIES PEOPLE HAVE THE RIGHT AND FREEDOM TO 
CHANGE THEIR GOVERNMENT VIA THE BALLOT BOX; AND 
 
-- THERE IS AN URGENT NEED TO ADDRESS THE ECONOMIC 
MORASS, SINCE FARMERS, ESPECIALLY NEW ONES, NEED PEACE, 
PREDICTABILITY AND BANK LINES TO PLOW THEIR FIELDS AND 
REAP THE FRUITS OF THEIR EFFORTS. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
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