US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2334

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002334 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR WHA A/S NOREIGA, WHA DAS FISK, WHA/CEN DIR. 
TRIVELLI 
NSC FOR AMB. MAISTO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, GT 
SUBJECT: OAS MISSION WORRIED ABOUT ELECTORAL VIOLENCE 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  The Ambassador met with OAS Election 
Observation Mission Chief Valentin Paniagua on September 8. 
The Ambassador pledged continued USG support to the OAS 
mission, briefed Paniagua on the re-certification process, 
and raised the need for a private communications channel 
between major political parties.  Paniagua said the national 
electoral registry was relatively clean, and was forthcoming 
with his concerns about pre-electoral violence and 
appreciative of USG support.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) The Ambassador acknowledged that any USG 
re-certification announcement would be misinterpreted by some 
as having political motives.  Nevertheless, the decision will 
be taken purely on the merits of GOG actions to meet 
technical requirements.  The Ambassador also discussed the 
need for a confidential communication channel between the 
major parties. He is exploring willingness of the FRG and 
GANA to have such communication at the vice presidential 
level.  Paniagua agreed this could prove very useful, 
especially in the event of an electoral crisis.  He noted 
that the FRG's exit from the Political Party Forum of the 
Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) was unfortunate.  Some such 
a forum is needed to condemn abuses such as the July 24-25 
protests.  The Ambassador said we would help on this issue. 
 
Concerned about Violence; Need for Public Ethics Code 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
3.  (SBU) The GOG's passive response to mounting electoral 
violence, Paniagua said, is his greatest concern.  Despite 
evidence freely available to the government, there has been 
no punitive action against organizers of the July 24-25 
protests.   The GOG passivity is totally unacceptable and 
fosters impunity.   The Ambassador encouraged Paniagua to 
press the GOG on this point. 
 
4.  (SBU) Paniagua said the press (the daily "El Periodico") 
has investigated a rumor that a mass shifting of imprisoned 
gang members scheduled shortly before the November 9 election 
will be used as cover for a mass jailbreak to intimidate 
voters from turning out.  He asked if the Embassy was aware 
of this rumor.  The Ambassador said yes, but gave it little 
credence (Note:  After reflecting on this, the Ambassador 
raised it with President Portillo later that day (SepTel). 
End Note.) 
 
5. (SBU) Paniagua asked for USG support to push the GOG to 
issue a "Code of Ethics" for public servants, to prevent 
abuse of government resources or authority.  The idea would 
not be to create new prohibitions (the existing ones are 
adequate) but to give them publicity and a higher profile. 
The VP was non-committal when he made this suggestion, but 
later issued a government directive referring to 
constitutional prohibitions.  An OAS code would go further by 
compiling all existing legal prohibitions in a coherent 
document for widespread dissemination among public servants. 
The Ambassador encouraged this effort.  Paniagua said he has 
been holding off going back to President Portillo until he 
has a full agenda to discuss and until he decides whether it 
would be more appropriate for the executive or TSE to do. 
The Ambassador urged Paniagua to raise it with both; Portillo 
may sincerely wish to recuperate his personal honor and 
reputation by playing a positive role in the election 
process.  For example, the decision to retire Gen. Rios Sosa, 
a wise one in our view, was made by the President at some 
cost. 
 
Paniagua:  Electoral Registry Clean 
----------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) Paniagua said that the first phase of his Mission, 
to verify the electoral register, is drawing to a close 
without evidence of fraud.  The register has not grown 
significantly beyond expectations, a final scrub of the 
deceased, other ineligible voters and those who have moved, 
is proceeding smoothly.  He also thought that the various 
controls in the electoral law and system would be adequate to 
prevent fraud. 
 
Berger's Return 
--------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) Paniagua said he had attended Oscar Berger's 
homecoming speech at the airport on September 7 and was 
impressed by the spontaneous turnout and breadth of Berger's 
support.  He was less impressed by Berger's claim that he 
would win in the first round. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
8.  (SBU) Paniagua will play a key role should an electoral 
crisis evolve during the two-stage elections on November 9 
and December 28.  Some have expressed doubt that he is 
assertive enough to face down official fraud or violence.  We 
believe he is already making important efforts to do so, and 
will continue to be a key ally throughout the process. 
HAMILTON