US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2331

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 GUATEMALA 002331 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SNAR, ELAB, PHUM, ETRD, GT, BZ 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S SEPTEMBER 8TH MEETING WITH PRESIDENT 
PORTILLO 
 
REF: GUATEMALA 2080 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN R. HAMILTON, EMBASSY GUATEMALA, REASON: 
1.5 (D). 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY: President Portillo says he fired number two 
in the army General Rios Sosa (Rios Montt's son) for 
disobeying orders to use the military to restore public order 
during the FRG violent protests July 24 and for lending 
military resources to the FRG campaign.  He has Rios Montt's 
support to fix a flawed bill establishing the civilian entity 
(the SAAS) that will replace the presidential military 
security service (EMP).  He thinks Rios Montt is doing far 
better than (opposition-funded) polls show, but that he will 
lose to current front-runner Oscar Berger in a second round. 
Contrary to expectations, Portillo did not mention any 
interest in visiting Washington. End summary 
 
Background: 
---------- 
 
2. (C) The Ambassador had phoned President Portillo September 
2 to congratulate him for removing General Rios Sosa from the 
number two position in the Army.  To the Ambassador's comment 
that it must have been a difficult decision, Portillo said it 
was, indeed, and offered to provide details in a private 
conversation.  Owing to the President's travel and a bad cold 
he developed in Belize September 4, the follow-on meeting did 
not take place until September 8th, at the President's home. 
 
Firing of Rios Sosa: 
------------------- 
 
3. (C) The Ambassador started with the Rios Sosa topic, 
asking what had prompted the decision and its timing. 
Portillo said he had been determined to fire Rios Sosa after 
he disobeyed orders to use the military to restore public 
order during the FRG violent protests July 24-25.  "Rios Sosa 
was confused as to whom he works for," Portillo said; 
"instead of me, he thought his commander in chief was his 
sister" (Second Vice President of the Congress Zury Rios, 
reportedly -- but not confirmed as -- the brains behind the 
FRG protests).  Portillo said General Rios Montt is furious 
with him.  "I've met with the General three times since the 
firing," Portillo said, "and he has not raised the subject 
once -- a sure sign that he is really ticked off; I know him 
well."  In fact, Portillo said, the entire FRG was angry with 
him, but in firing Rios Sosa he had won no plaudits from the 
press or opposition.  He had thus appreciated the 
Ambassador's call to express support, as "this job gets 
lonely."  Portillo also volunteered that he had discovered 
that Army regional commander General Cruz, previously fired 
for using army resources to build a platform for an FRG 
political rally, had been acting under Rios Sosa orders. 
Portillo said he let a month go by after the July 24 riots, 
to remove the decision from the political debate.  In 
passing, Portillo had high praise for Minister of Defense 
Moran, who "is loyal, consistently right on policy and who 
keeps me informed and consults with me on major decisions." 
 
Confidence Building in Elections: 
-------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) The Ambassador said the removal of Rios Sosa was a 
major step toward restoring confidence that the elections 
would be free and fair, but cautioned that more presidential 
leadership would be required.  He said the big challenge is 
to stem fear that there will be election-day violence, which 
arguably is being generated to keep the voter turnout low.  A 
particularly scary rumor making the rounds, the Ambassador 
said, is that imprisoned gang leaders and members will be 
allowed to escape shortly before the elections.  Mulling that 
one over, Portillo said he did not believe it but, at the 
same time, allowed that it was not impossible and that he 
would talk to Interior Minister Reyes Calderon about it.  The 
Ambassador also encouraged him personally to publicize legal 
prohibitions on use of state resources for electoral 
purposes, mentioning that this was a concern of OAS election 
observation mission chief Paniagua (with whom the Ambassador 
had just met). 
 
EMP Dismantling/SAAS Creation: 
----------------------------- 
 
5. (C) The Ambassador asked abut the current status of the 
bill to create a civilian presidential security agency (the 
SAAS) to replace the military security service (EMP), which 
has been responsible over the years for so many human rights 
abuses.  Portillo reaffirmed his intention to adhere to the 
timetable that dismantles the EMP by October 31 and said he 
had, earlier in the day, discussed the bill with General Rios 
Mont.  The General had reviewed a memorandum on the subject 
prepared by Foreign Minister Gutierrez and had agreed with 
his arguments for further amendments, to fix troublesome 
changes introduced by FRG congressmen at the behest of army 
officers lobbying on their own account.  If the changes were 
not made, Portillo reconfirmed his willingness to veto a bad 
law.  Comment: This has been a major concern to us and to 
Guatemalan and international human rights groups. 
 
Belize: 
------ 
 
6. (C) The Ambassador commented that the public disavowal of 
the OAS facilitators' recommendation on Belize had been 
disappointing and asked what prompted it.  Echoing what the 
British Ambassador said the Foreign Minister had told him, 
Portillo said it had been necessary to pre-emptively defend 
against a legal charge of treason that an opposition deputy 
had been preparing to bring against him.  Portillo said he 
had had a good, private meeting with Belizean Prime Minister 
Said Musa, explaining the decision as necessitated by this 
threat.  Portillo said Musa was understanding and was willing 
to look at concrete steps the two countries could take to 
convey the determination of both governments to handle the 
border dispute responsibly.  Portillo is interested in 
creating a free zone along the border and increasing the 
hours of operation at a border crossing. 
 
CICIACS: 
------- 
 
7. (C) The Ambassador said we understand that the UN, which 
sent a technical mission to Guatemala in July to determine 
what was needed to set up an effective commission to study 
clandestine groups, may recommend major measures to give the 
commission legal "teeth" to do the job properly.  For 
example, would the Portillo government and FRG be willing, if 
asked, to enact legal reforms to give the commission 
authority to use court-sanctioned telephone intercepts? 
Portillo indicated that he would look sympathetically on any 
well-reasoned recommendation and said he would be meeting on 
the subject in New York with UN Secretary General Kofi Annan. 
 
Labor Issues: 
------------ 
 
8. (C) The Ambassador briefed the President on his meeting, 
earlier in the day, with Attorney General Carlos De Leon on 
two specific labor issues: the still unresolved murder of 
labor leader Oswaldo Monzon and the incarceration on shaky 
legal grounds of labor leader Rigoberto Duenas.  The 
Ambassador said that both issues would likely be invoked 
during a congressional debate on CAFTA.  Portillo listened, 
asked a couple of clarifying questions, and said he would 
make a run at the Attorney General on the issue. 
 
Narcotics: 
--------- 
 
9. (C) In a brief discussion of narcotics cooperation and the 
currently ongoing Mayan Jaguar joint operation, Portillo said 
he was expecting to receive shortly a report from Guatemalan 
military intelligence detailing how virtually every political 
party is receiving campaign contributions from 
narco-traffickers, the FRG included, he said.  He promised 
the Ambassador a copy, but did not yet know what else he 
would do with the report. 
 
Immigration Issues: 
------------------ 
 
10. (C) He said he had fixed a problem on the border with El 
Salvador (wherein Guatemalan had literally withdrawn from a 
jointly operated port of entry) and commented that, again, it 
had been General Rios Sosa who had been at the source of the 
problem.  He also commented that he had restored full 
authority to Immigration Director Oscar Contreras (who has 
been cooperative with us).  Vice President Reyes Lopez had 
curtailed Contreras' authority during Portillo's trip abroad, 
to Taiwan.  Comment: This is the second time in as many 
meetings that Portillo has complained about the Vice 
President. 
 
Politics: 
-------- 
 
11. (C) On electoral politics, Portillo commented that FRG 
private polls (which he insisted have been professionally 
conducted to inform the FRG) shows Rios Montt running second, 
with 23 percent public support, to Bergers 32 percent.  He 
and Rios Montt had speculated together that the opposition, 
should the General win, will cite the public opinion polls 
(which in August put the General way back in fifth place, 
with single digit support) as indication of fraud.  But 
Portillo does not think Rios Montt can beat Berger in a 
second round.  Incidentally, Portillo said he had been 
favorably impressed by Berger's public comment that drug 
recertification was not a political issue and that it would 
be good for Guatemala.  Comment: Most of the oppostion hopes 
Guatemala will remain decertified. 
 
Final: 
----- 
 
12. (C) Comment: Portillo was, as usual, relaxed, seemingly 
confident but appreciative of the Ambassador's support on the 
 Rios Sosa issue.  Surprisingly, Portillo did not mention any 
interest in visiting Washington. 
HAMILTON