US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB1968

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 001968 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR IO/UNP, PMAT AND PM/RSAT 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2013 
TAGS: MARR, MOPS, PREL, HR 
SUBJECT: NEW UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION ON IRAQ WOULD 
EASE POLITICAL COST FOR GOC OF DEPLOYMENT TO IRAQ 
 
REF: A. STATE 256573 
     B. ZAGREB 1364 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) 

SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) PASSAGE OF A NEW UNSCR AUTHORIZING A UN-MANDATED 
MULTINATIONAL FORCE UNDER UNIFIED U.S. COMMAND WOULD MAKE THE 
GOC'S TASK OF SECURING PARLIAMENTARY APPROVAL TO DEPLOY A 
CROATIAN CONTINGENT OF TROOPS TO IRAQ MUCH EASIER. 
DEPLOYMENT TO IRAQ REMAINS POLITICALLY SENSITIVE.  WITH 
ELECTIONS EXPECTED IN NOVEMBER, THE GOC WOULD WELCOME THE 
POLITICAL COVER OF A NEW UN MANDATE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) ON JUNE 12, CROATIA'S GOVERNMENT MADE A POLITICAL 
COMMITMENT TO DEPLOY A MILITARY CONTINGENT TO IRAQ (REF B), 
BUT PM RACAN'S CABINET HAS NOT YET SUBMITTED A FORMAL 
DECISION TO THE PARLIAMENT FOR RATIFICATION.  A CROATIAN 
LIAISON OFFICER ARRIVED AT CENTCOM ON SEPTEMBER 3 TO GATHER 
DETAILS THE PARLIAMENT WILL REQUIRE TO APPROVE DEPLOYMENT. 
DEPLOYMENT OF FORCES TO IRAQ REMAINS VERY POLITICALLY 
SENSITIVE.  PUBLIC OPINION AGAINST DEPLOYMENT OF A CROATIAN 
CONTINGENT REMAINS HIGH, ALTHOUGH CROATIA'S POLITICAL LEADERS 
UNDERSTAND THAT MAKING A CONTRIBUTION TO COLLECTIVE SECURITY 
IS EXPECTED OF COUNTRIES WHICH ASPIRE TO NATO MEMBERSHIP. 
 
3.  (C) SPEEDY PASSAGE OF A NEW UNSCR AUTHORIZING A 
UN-MANDATED MULTINATIONAL FORCE UNDER UNIFIED U.S. COMMAND 
WOULD MAKE THE GOC'S POLITICAL TASK MUCH EASIER.  (IN A 
SEPTEMBER 9 DISCUSSION ON OTHER ISSUES, DEPUTY FOREIGN 
MINISTER IVAN SIMONOVIC RAISED THE ISSUE OF CROATIA'S 
POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE COALITION, AND MADE PRECISELY 
THIS POINT TO THE DCM.)  PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS ARE EXPECTED 
    IN NOVEMBER OF THIS YEAR, AND LEADING COALITION POLITICIANS 
WOULD WELCOME THE ADDITIONAL POLITICAL COVER A NEW RESOLUTION 
WOULD PROVIDE.  THE GOC MAY CHOOSE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NEW 
UNSCR IS PASSED BEFORE FORWARDING ITS FORMAL DECISION ON 
DEPLOYMENT FOR PARLIAMENTARY RATIFICATION.  CROATIA'S 
PARLIAMENT IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE ITSELF IN MID-OCTOBER TO 
PREPARE FOR ELECTIONS, SO A PROLONGED DEBATE OVER THE 
RESOLUTION COULD MEAN THAT CROATIAN TROOPS WOULD NOT BE 
AUTHORIZED TO JOIN THE STABILIZATION FORCE BEFORE EARLY 2004. 
 WITH CROATIA'S EU APPLICATION NOW UNDER CONSIDERATION, THE 
GOC WOULD AVOID TAKING ANY STEP TO WHICH THEY BELIEVE KEY EU 
MEMBER STATES MIGHT OBJECT. 
 
4.  (C) WE HAVE REACHED A POINT IN OUR EFFORTS TO LOBBY 
CROATIAN POLITICIANS WHERE WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE CURRENT 
PARLIAMENT WILL APPROVE A GOC DECISION TO DEPLOY FORCES TO 
IRAQ.  HOWEVER, IF THE RACAN CABINET CHOOSES TO DELAY 
FORWARDING A FORMAL DECISION TO THE LEGISLATURE PENDING THE 
OUTCOME OF DEBATE IN THE UNSC, THE CURRENT PARLIAMENT MAY NOT 
GET A CHANCE TO VOTE. 
FRANK 
 
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