US embassy cable - 03ANKARA5694

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 005694 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT. FOR IO/UNP, PMAT, PM/RSAT, EUR/SE AND NEA/NGA 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2013 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, MOPS, TU, IZ 
SUBJECT: IRAQ, TURKEY AND A NEW UNSC RESOLUTION: PASSAGE 
CAN ONLY HELP, BUT WON'T ELIMINATE ALL OF TURKEY'S CONCERNS 
 
 
REF: STATE 256273 
 
 
Classified by DCM Robert S. Deutsch.  Reasons 1.5 B and D. 
 
 
1. (C) The passage of a new UNSC resolution on Iraq 
authorizing a UN-mandated MNF would provide useful cover for 
GOT officials with the Turkish Parliament if/when the GOT 
seeks Parliament's approval for a Turkish troop contribution. 
 Significantly, President Sezer, the loudest voice insisting 
on "international legitimacy," might be silenced by such a 
resolution, as might a few, but not all, of the CHP 
opposition, which continues to object to Turkish 
participation.  However, a Turkish deployment is likely to 
remain unpopular among the Turkish press and a public that 
does not want Turkish troops to be at risk "doing a favor" 
for the US in Iraq.  Turks have qualms about the prospects of 
fighting fellow Muslims and of taking casualties in parts of 
Iraq where Turkey's direct interests have long been portrayed 
as peripheral.  Turks remain focused on the tensions between 
Iraqi Turkmen and Kurds, and on the PKK/KADEK presence, in 
northern Iraq.  So long as those issues remain hot here, a 
Turkish deployment away from the north will be controversial 
among the press and public, regardless of whether there is a 
UN resolution backing it.  To the extent that a resolution 
attracts other contributors, that too will help the GOT get 
to yes. 
 
 
2. (C) Bottom Line: Overall, in the effort to get a Turkish 
contribution, a new UNSCR helps.  But on its own, it will not 
assure us of winning the Turks over.  On the down side, a 
protracted UN debate may well delay a Turkish decision, as 
the Turks are likely to wait and see whether the UN process 
suceeds before taking the issue to Parliament.  Should we 
fail to secure a new resolution, having tried but failed will 
add ammunition to those who oppose a Turkish contribution, 
making it that much harder to get the Turks on board. 
Whichever way it goes, Turkey will be watching closely. 
 
 
3. (U)  Baghdad minimize considered. 
EDELMAN