US embassy cable - 03ANKARA5671

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 005671 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: OPPOSITION CHP IN DENIAL OVER FLAGGING 
POLL NUMBERS 
 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 4862 
     B. ISTANBUL 1231 
 
 
(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter. 
Reason: 1.5 (b,d). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: Main opposition Republican People's Party 
(CHP) continues to argue against sending Turkish troops to 
Iraq as part of a stabilization force -- so far to no 
noticeable effect with the voters.  Although hurting at the 
polls, senior members of the party seem unconcerned with the 
direction their party is going.  They expect few changes, if 
any, to occur in the party's senior leadership at CHP's 
general convention this fall and seem content to bide their 
time until nationwide local elections, currently scheduled 
for early next spring. End summary. 
 
 
------------------------- 
Still Using The Iraq Club 
------------------------- 
 
 
2. (C) Much as they did prior to March 1, senior members of 
the main opposition CHP, including chairman Deniz Baykal, 
continue to try to use the Iraq issue to bash the ruling AK 
Party and swipe at the U.S.  CHP Deputy Group Chairman Oguz 
Oyan recently lambasted USG Iraq policy and said sending 
Turkish troops to Iraq would be "crazy."  Privately, CHP 
officials say the AK Government is not being consistent in 
its policy and is not sharing information with CHP. 
Moreover, CHP M.P.s have often been defensive when addressing 
the party's Iraq policy.  In a Sept. 3 meeting with us, CHP 
Vice Chairman Sinan Yerlikaya, who is close to Baykal, 
defended his party's stance for half an hour, despite 
poloff's attempts to steer the conversation away from Iraq. 
He argued -- in a bizarre twist of logic -- that "if Turkey 
had gone into Iraq under a CHP government, none of the USG's 
current difficulties would exist."  Asked why, then, CHP does 
not support sending troops to Iraq, he weakly argued that his 
party wants a "more comprehensive" agreement with the USG. 
Yerlikaya then proceeded to repeat himself several times as 
if he was trying to convince himself of his own argument. 
Searching for a way out of the rhetorical trap he set for 
himself, Yerlikaya then claimed that the CHP leadership has 
not made a final policy decision on sending troops and that 
the press "may have exaggerated" recent harsh comments by 
Baykal. 
 
 
------------------------------- 
Negative Public Opinion Numbers 
------------------------------- 
 
 
3. (C) CHP's often anti-American stance against Turkish 
participation in a stabilization force in Iraq does not seem 
to be winning points with the public.  Amid party defections 
(ref A) and reported internal opposition, which has arisen in 
several recent provincial party congresses -- most notably in 
Istanbul (ref B) -- support for CHP continues to fall, 
according to recent polling numbers.  Data from one poll 
conducted in August by the firm Pollmark -- set up by 
professors from Middle Eastern Technical University in Ankara 
-- indicated that if national elections were held today, CHP 
would received only 11.7 percent of the vote, a far cry from 
the 19 percent CHP received last November.  The same poll 
asked voters to choose the most popular politician in Turkey. 
 Only 4.2 percent of those surveyed chose Baykal, placing him 
behind his arch-rival, former P.M. Ecevit, and just ahead of 
Islamist former P.M. Erbakan.  Another August poll by ANAR, 
which we have found to be reliable in the past, showed 
support for CHP at 12.3 percent.  Meanwhile, the ruling AK 
Party garnered more than 30 percent in both polls. 
 
 
----------------- 
Business as Usual 
----------------- 
 
 
4. (C) Despite declining polling numbers and internal 
turmoil, recent conversations with senior CHP M.P.s reveal a 
party without a sense of urgency.  Yerlikaya downplayed 
opposition within the party, asserting that no one in the 
party is upset with the leadership's basic policies. 
Instead, Yerlikaya argued that those who made a show in 
Istanbul (by protesting Baykal's chosen candidate to run 
CHP's provincial office) only want Baykal to be more vocal in 
his opposition to the AK Government.  Yerlikaya, who is close 
to the CHP leader, claimed that Baykal prefers to be more 
"constructive" in his opposition and will continue to be so. 
 
 
5. (C) In a Sept. 4 private meeting, CHP Deputy Secretary 
General Algan Hacaloglu, who is responsible for party 
membership issues, asserted that polling numbers do not mean 
much right now.  He acknowledged, however, that local 
elections -- currently scheduled for early next spring -- 
will be an important test for CHP.  Hacaloglu does not expect 
many changes in CHP's executive bodies during the party's 
general convention (which we understand will be held late 
October/early November), but CHP M.P. and former State 
Minister Kemal Dervis might win a spot on the Central 
Administrative Board.  (Note: Hacaloglu became agitated when 
poloff mentioned Dervis's calls for re-making CHP by 
recruiting younger members and claimed Baykal had already 
issued similar calls.  "These statements do not belong to 
Dervis; they belong to the party." End note.) 
 
 
6. (C) In a general discussion of CHP, Hacaloglu admitted 
that the party had not made inroads with Anatolian voters. 
Echoing CHP complaints from the run-up to last November's 
national elections, Hacaloglu said the party has not been 
able to explain itself effectively to Anatolia. 
Nevertheless, with an air of elitism common among senior CHP 
officials, Hacaloglu claimed that the party remains strong in 
the more educated and developed parts of Turkey.  "This means 
that as Turkey continues to develop, the future is bright for 
CHP." 
EDELMAN