US embassy cable - 00HARARE2197

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 002197 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PARIS PLEASE PASS TO A/S SUSAN E. RICE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF PDAS POWELL, AF DAS SCHNEIDMAN, 
AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK OFFICER GURNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/20/10 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI, Land Reform 
SUBJECT: MUGABE MEETS PROTAGONISTS IN ATTEMPT TO 
CONTROL FARM CRISIS 
 
REF: HARARE 02164 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02197  01 OF 04  201632Z 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5 
(B), (D) 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY.  PRESIDENT MUGABE RECENTLY HAS 
MET WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF THE COMMERCIAL 
FARMERS UNION (CFU) AND THE WAR VETERANS 
ASSOCIATION THAT IS SPEARHEADING THE OCCUPATIONS 
OF FARMS, BOTH SEPARATELY AND TOGETHER.  AS OF 
APRIL 20 IN HARARE, THE GENERAL SENSE IS THAT THE 
MEETINGS HAVE SOMEWHAT LESSENED THE TENSIONS IN 
AT LEAST SOME RURAL AREAS.  AMBASSADOR MCDONALD 
ALSO HAS HAD SEPARATE MEETINGS WITH CFU 
REPRESENTATIVES, AN INDEPENDENT MEDIATOR WHO 
PARTICIPATED IN THE RECENT STATEHOUSE MEETINGS, 
AND THE NIGERIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER, WHO PROVIDED 
US A LIMITED READOUT ON THE VISIT HERE OF THE 
NIGERIAN FOREIGN MINISTER.  WE SEE A WILLINGNESS 
TO TALK AND EVEN SOME OPENNESS TO COMPROMISE, BUT 
WE ALSO BELIEVE THAT THE FARM OCCUPATIONS ARE A 
MEANS FOR MUGABE TO EXERCISE POLITICAL POWER, NOT 
AN END IN THEMSELVES.  WE ARE SKEPTICAL THAT THE 
FARM INVASIONS WILL CEASE BEFORE ELECTIONS ARE 
HELD.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C)  IN A SERIES OF WELL-PUBLICIZED MEETINGS, 
PRESIDENT MUGABE HAS MET SERIALLY WITH 
REPRESENTATIVES OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS WHO 
HAVE SEEN MANY OF THEIR MEMBERS' PROPERTIES 
OVERRUN BY SQUATTERS, LEADERS OF THE WAR VETERANS 
ASSOCIATION WHO HAVE LED THE INCURSIONS, AND THE 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  02197  01 OF 04  201632Z 
TWO GROUPS TOGETHER.  AFTER THEIR JOINT MEETING 
LAST NIGHT, I.T APPEARS THAT THE PROTAGONISTS WILL 
CONTINUE TO TALK AND MAY WORK TOWARD A SOLUTION, 
EVEN THOUGH THE OCCUPIERS WILL REMAIN ON THE 
FARMS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.  IT APPEARS FOR 
THE MOMENT THAT THE MEETINGS MAY HAVE ABATED THE 
VIOLENCE THAT CLAIMED THE LIVES OF TWO FARMERS 
THIS WEEK. 
 
MEETING THE FARMERS 
 
3.  (C) OUR SERIES OF MEETINGS BEGAN ON APRIL 19, 
WHEN TIM HENWOOD, LEADER OF THE COMMERCIAL 
FARMERS UNION (CFU), AND THE CFU REGIONAL VICE 
PRESIDENT, WILLIAM HUGHES (PLEASE PROTECT BOTH), 
MET WITH THE AMBASSADOR AT THE EMBASSY.  TDY 
POLOFF AND ECONOFF ALSO ATTENDED.  THE DISCUSSION 
CENTERED AROUND THE MEETING THE CFU 
REPRESENTATIVES HAD WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE ON 
APRIL 17 AND THE CONDITIONS FARMERS ACROSS THE 
NATION ARE FACING IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING FARM 
INVASIONS AND RECENT KILLINGS OF TWO FARMERS. 
 
4.  (C) HENWOOD SAID THE MEETING WITH MUGABE HAD 
BEEN FRANK, AND HE FELT SOME PROGRESS HAD BEEN 
MADE.  HE ALSO WAS REALISTIC ABOUT THE DIFFICULTY 
OF READING MUGABE'S INTENTIONS AFTER MEETING HIM, 
ACKNOWLEDGING THAT MERE WORDS FROM MUGABE NEED TO 
BE BACKER BY ACTIONS BEFORE AN INTERLOCUTOR CAN 
BE SURE MUGABE IS ON COURSE. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02197  01 OF 04  201632Z 
5.  (C)  HENWOOD CONFIRMED TO US THAT MANY 
FARMERS HAVE LEFT THEIR FARMS, AND MORE ARE IN 
THE PROCESS OF DOING SO.  HE DID NOT GIVE 
NUMBERS, BUT IMPLIED THAT THE NUMBERS WERE 
SUBSTANTIAL, ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WHERE 
KILLINGS HAVE TAKEN PLACE OR OTHER VIOLENCE HAS 
FLARED.  HE ALSO SAID THAT THERE ARE AREAS OF THE 
COUNTRY IN  WHICH THERE HAVE BEEN NO INVASIONS 
AND THINGS ARE GENERALLY PEACEFUL.  WHEN ASKED, 
HE SAID ABOUT 40 OR 50 FARMERS HAVE SIGNED 
DOCUMENTS AT THE DEMAND OF THE OCCUPIERS THAT 
SUPPOSEDLY TRANSFER THE OWNERSHIP OF THE FARMLAND 
TO THE OCCUPIERS. 
 
6.  (C)  MUCH OF THE USEFUL INFORMATION HENWOOD 
CONVEYED WAS ABOUT THE NATURE AND SCOPE OF THE 
FARM INVASIONS. 
 
  IT APPEARED TO HIM THAT THE AREAS SUFFERING 
FROM INVASIONS WERE WHERE SIGNIFICANT ACTIONS HAD 
TAKEN PLACE DURING ZIMBABWE'S WAR OF LIBERATION. 
OFTEN THE WAR VETERANS WERE RETURNING TO THEIR 
FORMER AREAS OF OPERATION. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8718 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02197  02 OF 04  201632Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00 
      EUR-01   VC-01    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     AC-01 
      NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /008W 
                  ------------------4E44AA  201639Z /38 
R 201636Z APR 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5806 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
USLO ABUJA 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 002197 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PARIS PLEASE PASS TO A/S SUSAN E. RICE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF PDAS POWELL, AF DAS SCHNEIDMAN, 
AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK OFFICER GURNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/20/10 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI 
 
SUBJECT: MUGABE MEETS PROTAGONISTS IN ATTEMPT TO 
CONTROL FARM CRISIS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02197  02 OF 04  201632Z 
  DEATH THREATS TO FARMERS WERE WIDESPREAD. 
 
THESE WERE WHAT HAD LED TO MANY OF THE FARM 
EVACUATIONS. 
 
  THERE HAD BEEN SOME BURNING OF FARMHOUSES AND 
OUTBUILDINGS, INCLUDING AT LEAST ONE FULL TOBACCO 
STORAGE SHED NEAR HARARE THAT HAD DESTROYED THAT 
FARMER'S HARVEST OF TOBACCO. 
 
  MOST OF THE OCCUPIED FARMS ARE BEING HELD BY 
ONLY A HANDFUL OF PEOPLE.  A SMALL NUMBER OF 
FARMS HAVE LARGE NUMBERS OF OCCUPIERS. 
 
  THE OCCUPIERS ARE NOT GENERALLY ARMED. 
 
  MANY FARM WORKERS--WHO ARE BLACKS--HAVE BEEN 
BADLY BEATEN, A FACT NOT RECEIVING MUCH PRESS 
ATTENTION.  HENWOOD SAID THE OCCUPIERS ON THE 
FARM OF THE FIRST WHITE FARMER TO BE KILLED HAVE 
SINCE RETURNED TO INTIMIDATE THE WORKERS THAT 
REMAIN, AND HAVE BEEN WAVING BODY PARTS FROM ONE 
OF THE FARM WORKERS THEY HAD EARLIER ABDUCTED. 
 
7.  (C)  HENWOOD SAID THE KILLINGS OF THE TWO 
FARMERS APPEAR QUITE DIFFERENT.  IN THE FLRST 
DEATH, IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERS FLARED AND THINGS 
GOT OUT OF CONTROL.  IN CONTRAST, HE SAID THE 
SECOND KILLING LOOKED DELIBERATE AND WELL 
PLANNED.  IN THAT CASE, THE FARM HAD NOT BEEN 
OCCUPIED PRIOR TO THE KILLING, THE ATTACKERS 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  02197  02 OF 04  201632Z 
ARRIVED EARLY IN THE MORNING IN A CONVOY AND 
IMMEDIATELY OPENED FIRE WITH THE MANY GUNS THEY 
HAD BROUGHT WITH THEM.  HE ALSO SAID THE 
ATTACKERS DID NOT SPEAK NDEBELE, THE NATIVE 
TONGUE IN THE REGION OF THE ATTACK. 
 
8.  (C)  SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY, HENWOOD SAID THE 
COOPERATION FROM HIGHER LEVEL ARMY AND POLICE 
OFFICIALS HAD BEEN FAIRLY GOOD.  WHILE ORDINARY 
POLICE ON THE SCENES OF THE ATTACKS HAD DONE 
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO PREVENT THEM--IN THE FIRST 
KILLING THE VICTIM WAS REMOVED FROM A POLICE 
STATION IN THE PRESENCE OF THE POLICE-SOME 
SPECIAL UNITS THAT HAD BEEN DISPATCHED AT HIS 
REQUEST BY GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS HAD COOPERATED. 
THEY HAD, HOWEVER, ARRIVED FAR TOO LATE TO BE OF 
ANY PRACTICAL USE. 
 
9.  (C)  HENWOOD SAID THAT ALTHOUGH THE CFU WAS 
DOING WHAT IT COULD TO PROTECT ITS MEMBERS, THEY 
HAD COME TO FEEL THEY WERE A BIT PERIPHERAL TO 
THE HEART OF THE PROCESS, WHICH WAS A POLITICAL 
QUESTION.  IN SO MANY WORDS, HE SAID THE LAND 
ISSUE WAS A POLITICAL FOOTBALL FOR MUGABE AND THE 
WAR VETERANS.  THUS, THE CFU AND ITS MEMBERS FIND 
THEMSELVES IN THE MIDDLE OF AN ISSUE THEY CAN 
ULTIMATELY DO LITTLE TO AFFECT. 
 
10.  (C)  HENWOOD ALSO PASSED ON SOME INFORMATION 
THAT SOUNDED AS IF IT HAD PARTLY BEEN GLEANED 
FROM SOURCES OF UNKNOWN CREDIBILITY AND PARTLY 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  02197  02 OF 04  201632Z 
RESULTED FROM READINGS OF THE POLITICAL TEA 
LEAVES.  FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH, HENWOOD SAID HE 
THOUGHT THE CABINET HAD BEEN SPLIT ABOUT 50-50 
OVER THE LAND OCCUPATIONS WHEN THEY BEGAN, BUT 
THAT NOW MUGABE WAS NEARLY THE LAST REMAINING 
DEFENDER OF THEM.  HE THOUGHT THIS EXPLAINED THE 
WIDE SPLIT BETWEEN VICE PRESIDENT MSIKA AND 
PRESIDENT MUGABE OVER ENFORCING THE LATEST COURT 
JUDGMENT ORDERING THE GOVERNMENT TO END THE 
OCCUPATIONS.  HOWEVER, WE BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY 
THAT MUGABE APPROVED MSIKA'S STATEMENT AND THEN 
CONTRADICTED HIM. 
 
MEETING THE MIDDLEMAN 
 
11.  (C)  LATER ON APRIL 19, WE MET WITH FATHER 
FIDELIS, A CATHOLIC PRIEST WHO HAD ATTENDED THE 
APRIL 17 MUGABE-CFU MEETING IN THE SOMEWHAT 
HAZILY DEFINED ROLE OF MEDIATOR OR FACILITATOR. 
HE IS WELL KNOWN TO THE EMBASSY AND WE HAVE A 
POSITIVE VIEW OF HIM.  FR. FIDELIS AGREED WITH 
HENWOOD THAT THE MEETING HAD BEEN RELAXED AND 
FRANK.  IT WAS APPARENTLY A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8720 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02197  03 OF 04  201632Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00 
      EUR-01   VC-01    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     AC-01 
      NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /008W 
                  ------------------4E44BA  201639Z /38 
R 201636Z APR 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5807 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
USLO ABUJA 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 002197 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PARIS PLEASE PASS TO A/S SUSAN E. RICE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF PDAS POWELL, AF DAS SCHNEIDMAN, 
AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK OFFICER GURNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/20/10 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI 
 
SUBJECT: MUGABE MEETS PROTAGONISTS IN ATTEMPT TO 
CONTROL FARM CRISIS 
 
BOTH SIDES TO AT LEAST AIR THEIR VIEWS.  AFTER 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  02197  03 OF 04  201632Z 
COMPARING THE READOUT FR. FIDELIS HAD OF THE CFU 
REACTION TO THE MEETING WITH THE REACTION THE CFU 
HAD GIVEN DIRECTLY TO US, HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT 
SURE THE SIDES WERE LISTENING AS WELL AS TALKING. 
 
12.  (C)  FR. FIDELIS THOUGHT THE EXPLANATION 
MUGABE HAD GIVEN TO THE FARMERS ABOUT THE ORIGINS 
OF THE LAND PROBLEM IN THE BRITISH COLONIAL 
PERIOD HAD PRODUCED REAL UNDERSTANDING ON THE 
FARMERS' PART OF MUGABE'S MOTIVATION.  THE CFU 
CHARACTERIZED THIS PART OF THEIR TALKS WITH 
MUGABE AS A REPLAY OF A BROKEN RECORD.  FR. 
FIDELIS ALSO CLAIMED THE CFU DELEGATION HAD TOLD 
MUGABE THEY NOW REALIZE THE "NO" VOTE ON THE 
RECENT CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM HAD BEEN A 
MISTAKE--SOMETHING WE FIND HARD TO BELIEVE. 
 
13.  (C)  FR. FIDELIS WAS EVASIVE ON GIVING AN 
OPINION ON SOME IMPORTANT ISSUES, SUCH AS WHERE 
THE WAR VETERANS ARE GETTING THEIR VEHICLES AND 
WEAPONS, BUT HE DID HAVE INTERESTING OBSERVATIONS 
ON SOME OTHER ISSUES.  FOR EXAMPLE, HE HAS BEEN 
DEALING WITH THE WAR VETS AND THE LAND TAKEOVER 
ISSUE FOR SEVERAL YEARS BUT SAID IT WAS POINTLESS 
TO TALK WITH THE VETERANS' LEADER, "HITLER" 
HUNZVI.  HE CHARACTERIZED HUNZVI AS "NOT A 
SOLUTION MAN."  HE ALSO SAID THAT WHILE THERE 
WERE SOME LOGICAL ANSWERS TO SOME OF THE VEXING 
ISSUES IN THE CURRENT POLITICAL TANGLE, THEY WERE 
OF LITTLE USE BECAUSE EMOTIONS HAVE COME TO THE 
FORE. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02197  03 OF 04  201632Z 
 
THE NIGERIAN READOUT 
 
14.  (C)  ON APRIL 20 THE AMBASSADOR HAD AN 
INITIAL MEETING WITH THE NEWLY ARRIVED NIGERIAN 
HIGH COMMISSIONER, B.W. JUTA, THAT FOCUSED MAINLY 
ON THE NIGERIAN VIEWS OF THE CURRENT POLITICAL 
SITUATION AND THE JUST-CONCLUDED VISIT OF 
NIGERIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAMIDO TO PRESIDENT 
MUGABE. 
 
15.  (C)  COMMISSIONER JUTA SAID PRESIDENT 
OBASANJO HAD DECIDED TO SEND HIS FM AS SOON AS HE 
HEARD OF THE DEATH OF THE FIRST WHITE FARMER, AND 
THAT IT WAS THE VIOLENCE SURROUNDING THE LAND 
ISSUE THAT MOST CONCERNED OBASANJO.  JUTA DID NOT 
PROVIDE A DETAILED READOUT OF THE LAMIDO-MUGABE 
MEETING, BUT SAID THE MOST IMPORTANT MESSAGE FROM 
THE NIGERIAN SIDE WAS THEIR CONCERN OVER VIOLENCE 
AND THE APPEARANCE THAT LAW AND ORDER WAS 
BREAKING DOWN.  THE MESSAGE THEY TOOK FROM MUGABE 
WAS THAT THE SITUATION WAS NOW UNDER CONTROL, HE 
REGRETTED THE DEATHS, AND THAT HE WAS SENDING A 
HIGH LEVEL DELEGATION TO THE APRIL 27 TALKS WITH 
GREAT BRITAIN.  THE NIGERIANS APPEAR TO VIEW THE 
DIRECT ZIMBABWE-BRITAIN TALKS AS AN IMPORTANT 
OPPORTUNITY TO CALM THE SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE. 
 
16.  (C)  IN RESPONSE TO AMBASSADOR MCDONALD'S 
OBSERVATION THAT THE ROOTS OF THE CURRENT 
PROBLEMS LAY IN THE POLITICS OF ZIMBABWE, AND 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  02197  03 OF 04  201632Z 
THAT THAT IS WHERE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
MUST HELP ZIMBABWEANS LOOK FOR SOLUTIONS, JUTA 
DEMURRED.  HE SAID NIGERIA VIEWED ALL QUESTION OF 
ZIMBABWEAN POLITICS AS AN INTERNAL MATTER, AND 
THAT NIGERIA SOUGHT TO EXPRESS THEIR VIEWS ONLY 
OVER THE LAND ISSUE, ESPECIALLY INSOFAR AS IT 
COMBUSTS INTO VIOLENCE. 
 
COMMENT 
 
17.  (C)  ZIMBABWE AT THE MOMENT IS A GOOD 
EXAMPLE OF CHURCHILL'S AXIOM THAT JAW-JAW IS 
BETTER THAN WAR-WAR.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT, IF ANY, 
REAL RESOLUTION TO THE LAND PROBLEM WILL COME 
FROM TALKS BETWEEN THE WAR VETERANS, THE FARMERS, 
AND PRESIDENT MUGABE.  HAVING FAILED IN THE 
PREVIOUS TWENTY YEARS TO ARRIVE AT A LASTING 
SOLUTION, IT IS UNLIKELY THEY WILL DO SO NOW. 
INDEED, POLITICS SEEMS TO PREVAIL FOR NOW. 
NONETHELESS, TALK IS PREFERABLE TO THE DEATHS, 
INTIMIDATION, AND POPULATION FLIGHT THAT WE HAVE 
SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8722 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00 
      EUR-01   VC-01    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     AC-01 
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      ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /009W 
                  ------------------4E44C0  201639Z /38 
R 201636Z APR 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5808 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
USLO ABUJA 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 002197 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PARIS PLEASE PASS TO A/S SUSAN E. RICE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF PDAS POWELL, AF DAS SCHNEIDMAN, 
AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK OFFICER GURNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/20/10 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI 
 
SUBJECT: MUGABE MEETS PROTAGONISTS IN ATTEMPT TO 
CONTROL FARM CRISIS 
 
18.  (C)  OUR FOCUS MUST BE UPON THE PRACTICAL 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  02197  04 OF 04  201633Z 
AND ACHIEVABLE.  WE BELIEVE OUR PROPOSED HIGH- 
LEVEL APPROACH TO MUGABE (REFTEL), AIMED AT 
MAKING HIM REALIZE HIS LEADERSHIP OBLIGATIONS AS 
HEAD OF GOVERNMENT, IS CURRENTLY THE BEST MEANS 
FOR US TO ASSIST IN ZIMBABWE.  WE ARE DEVELOPING 
TALKING POINTS THAT CAN BE USED FOR THIS 
INITIATIVE.  WE AGREE WITH THE THEME OF "HOW CAN 
WE HELP."  IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE FARMERS AND 
MUGABE CAN FIND SOME ACCOMMODATION WITH ONE 
ANOTHER, EVEN WHILE REMAINING DIVIDED ON 
FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES OF HISTORICAL INJUSTICE AND 
THE OBLIGATIONS PAST GENERATIONS CAN IMPOSE ON 
THE PRESENT.  AFTER ALL, UNTIL THE RECENT SPATE 
OF LAND OCCUPATIONS THEY APPEARED TO HAVE FOUND A 
WORKABLE PROCESS THROUGH THE RESULTS OF THE LAND 
CONFERENCE OF 1998.  SUCH AN ACCOMMODATION, 
HOWEVER, WILL DEPEND ON POLITICAL GOODWILL ON 
BOTH SIDES, SOMETHING THAT MUGABE AT LEAST HAS 
LACKED IN THE RECENT CRISIS. 
 
19.  (C)  WE MUST BE ALERT TO THE CHANCE THAT 
MUGABE IS NOT CONCERNED WITH THE LAND ISSUE PER 
SE, BUT SEES IT MERELY AS A TOOL FOR FOMENTING 
DISORDER.  SOME OBSERVERS HERE BELIEVE THAT 
MUGABE'S REAL AIM IS TO CREATE ENOUGH DISORDER TO 
JUSTIFY IMPOSING A STATE OF EMERGENCY THAT WILL 
ALLOW HIM TO CANCEL THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. 
THIS SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY A REAL POSSIBILITY. 
THAT IS WHY ENGAGEMENT FROM THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF 
OUR GOVERNMENT WITH MUGABE IS CRITICAL AT THIS 
TIME. 
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MCDONALD 
 
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>