US embassy cable - 03RANGOON1093

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001093 
 
SIPDIS 
 
TREASURY FOR OASIA JEFF NEIL 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, BM, National Convention 
SUBJECT: FORCED MARCH ON THE BURMESE ROAD TO "DEMOCRACY" 
 
REF: RANGOON 1057 AND 1029 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: On Sunday, September 7, SPDC Chairman Than 
Shwe made new appointments to the five top jobs in the 
National Convention Convening Commission, the first step in 
implementing the Burma's "roadmap" to democracy. 
Significantly, for the first time a member of the ruling 
military junta, SPDC Secretary-2 Lt Gen Thein Sein, has been 
appointed to the committee and will serve as the Chairman. 
Taken along with a recent SPDC and cabinet realignment over 
the previous two weeks, this newest change is strong evidence 
the Junta is pushing ahead with it's pre-set battle plan to 
march down the "Burmese Road To Democracy," with the ultimate 
objective of appearing in the eyes of the region, if not the 
international community, to have a more visually acceptable 
form of government.   Details of the new appointments are 
provided in paragraph 2.  END SUMMARY. 
 
ANNOUNCED APPOINTMENTS 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (U) SPDC Chairman and Senior General Than Shwe announced 
on September 7 new leadership appointments for the National 
Convention Convening Commission, the 18-member body that is 
responsible for convening the constitutional convention and 
creating committees to draft the new constitution.  The 
following are the new Commission leaders, with embassy 
biographical data in parenthesis: 
 
(a) SPDC Secretary 2 Lt Gen Thein Sein, Chairman (Armed 
Forces Adjutant General, 
Former Commander of Golden Triangle Region, Head of Myanmar 
Economic Corporation, 
USDA Patron, War Veterans Organization (WVO) Organizing 
Committee Chairman) 
 
(b) Chief Justice U Aung Toe, Vice-Chairman; (Chief Justice 
since 1988, responsible for 
writing the finished 1995 constitution draft, was briefly 
Chairman in 1996) 
 
(c) Minister of Electric Power Maj Gen Tin Htut, 
Vice-Chairman; (Formerly Commander of Eastern 
Command HQ, USDA Executive, WVO member) 
 
(d) Ministry of Information Brig Gen Kyaw Hsan, Secretary; 
and (Former Dep Commander of N.W. 
Command, Deputy Min of Commerce, USDA Executive and Campaign 
Manager, WVO member) 
 
(e) Director of Directorate of Public Relations and 
Psychological 
Warfare Maj Gen Khin Aung Myint, Joint-Secretary  (Previously 
Commandant of Min of 
Defense Compound, Dep Minister for Military affairs) 
 
STEP #1 On the Burmese Road to Democracy 
---------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) This is the first time the SPDC has assigned an SPDC 
member to the Commission.  It is also the first time they 
have assigned senior USDA members.  With the SPDC's new S-2 
as Chairman, combined with the continuing presence of Maj Gen 
Kyaw Win, Deputy Chief of OCMI, and Brig Gen Than Tun, Head 
of Office for OCMI, there is now plenty of muscle on the 
commission to accomplish it's mission.   Step One on the 
recently-announced Burmese Road Map for Democracy is to 
convene the Constitutional Convention, and it appears that Sr 
Gen Than Shwe has just given marching orders to the new 
Commission Chairman to do exactly that -- convene the 
constitutional convention. 
 
OPTIONS FOR THE NEW CHAIRMAN 
---------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) If the new Commission Chairman does reconvene the 
convention, he will have three options to chose from.  The 
committee can either reassemble the original NLD-dominated 
1993 convention, reconvene the NLD-boycotted 1996 convention, 
or "pack the court" and convene a new body of pliable 
delegates appointed by the government and encompassing as 
many ethnic groups as convenient.  The committee will not 
likely go with option one above, since it means involving the 
NLD.  Option two is more likely as it doesn't involve the 
NLD, and provides the appearance of being fair to 
non-discriminating observers.  Option three is likely if 
option two becomes too difficult, but will give the least 
appearance of legitimacy as it blatantly disenfranchises 
those who want to participate in a genuine democratic process. 
 
ETHNIC ROAD BLOCKS AHEAD? 
------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) The first real roadblock on the "Burmese Road to 
Democracy" may come from the ethnic groups.  The second 
largest opposition party in Burma, the Shan National League 
for Democracy (SNLD), stated this weekend it would boycott 
any convention that did not allow the free discussions of 
opinions and ideas -- which was the reason the NLD walked out 
of the 1993 convention in the first place. The Wa are also 
reportedly leery of participating in a reconvened 1996 
convention.  How the SPDC will clear these possible 
roadblocks will determine early on the legitimacy of this 
entire process. 
 
STILL MOVING FORWARD 
-------------------- 
 
6.  COMMENT:  The generals have decided to re-package 
themselves as a sop to their neighbors in the region, and 
they will likely do it with a military-style approach that 
dictates actions to be taken in a set sequence -- as 
evidenced in the last three weeks worth of changes.  However, 
their plan may have difficulty accounting for the unexpected. 
 The very strong international response to reports of ASSK's 
hunger strike caught the SPDC flat footed and angered them 
into hurling charges against the U.S. of trying to upstage 
the Prime Minister's new road map.  END COMMENT. 
Martinez