US embassy cable - 00ATHENS1917

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ATHENS 001917 
 
PLEASE PASS TO S/SA JIM DOBBINS 
 
E.O.  12958:  DECL:  04/18/02 
TAGS:  PREL, ECIN, ZL, GR 
SUBJECT:  ENGAGING GREECE ON THE BALKANS: WHAT A DIFFERENCE A 
YEAR CAN MAKE 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION TERRY R. SNELL, REASONS 1.5 
(B,D) 
 
1. (C) LAST APRIL OUR EMBASSY ENDURED DAILY DEMONSTRATIONS, MANY 
OF THEM VIOLENT, BY ANGRY GREEKS PROTESTING THE NATO AIR CAMPAIGN 
AGAINST SERBIA.  EMOTIONS RAN HIGH WITH ANTI-AMERICANISM AND PRO- 
SERB EMOTIONALISM OFTEN TWO SIDES OF THE SAME COIN.  ALTHOUGH 
POLLS INDICATED OVER 90 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION OPPOSED THE AIR 
STRIKES, PRIME MINISTER SIMITIS AND FOREIGN MINISTER PAPANDREOU 
PERFORMED A DELICATE BALANCING ACT BY KEEPING GREECE FROM 
RUPTURING THE NATO CONSENSUS.  THE GREEK GOVERNMENT ON APRIL 21- 
22 WILL BE UNOFFICIALLY CO-HOSTING A SERB OPPOSITION LEADERS 
CONFERENCE IN ATHENS.  NO ONE IN THE GREEK GOVERNMENT QUESTIONS 
THE PREMISE THAT THE MILOSEVIC REGIME MUST GO.  GREEK DIFFERENCES 
WITH THE U.S. ARE CENTERED ON THE APPROPRIATE TACTICS, ESPECIALLY 
THE EFFICACY OF CONTINUED ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST BELGRADE. 
 
2. (C) TEN DAYS AGO, LARGELY FOR DOMESTIC ECONOMIC REASONS, 
VOTERS RE-ELECTED THE SIMITIS GOVERNMENT FOR A SECOND TERM.  WITH 
PASOK THE WINNER IN THE LAST THREE ELECTIONS, PM SIMITIS IS 
STARTING TO STRIP THE PARTY OF ITS ANDREAS PAPANDREOU LEGACY AND 
FIRMLY ESTABLISH GREECE IN EUROPE'S PROGRESSIVE POLITICAL CENTER. 
DESPITE SOME CHANGES AT THE SUBMINISTERIAL LEVEL, THE FOREIGN AND 
DEFENSE MINISTRIES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROMOTING 
RAPPROCHEMENT WITH TURKEY, AN INCREASED GREEK ROLE IN THE BALKANS 
AND A PRODUCTIVE, COOPERATIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE U.S. 
 
3. (C) PM SIMITIS WILL BE PRESENTING THE NEW GOVERNMENT'S PROGRAM 
TO THE PARLIAMENT ON APRIL 21.  GREECE WILL JOIN THE EUROPEAN AND 
ECONOMIC MONETARY UNION (EMU) IN JANUARY AND MUCH OF SIMITIS'S 
PROGRAM WILL BE DEVOTED TO STRIKING A BALANCE BETWEEN THE 
REQUIRED MACROECONOMIC DISCIPLINE IMPOSED BY EMU AND A 
RESTRUCTURING OF GOVERNMENT SOCIAL PROGRAMS IMPORTANT TO MOST 
GREEKS AND ESPECIALLY PASOK'S CONSTITUENCY.  SIMITIS BELIEVES IN 
CABINET GOVERNMENT AND FM PAPANDREOU WILL TAKE THE LEAD IN 
SHAPING GREECE'S FOREIGN POLICY.  AS IN THE LAST GOVERNMENT, 
IMLEMENTATION OF ANY NEW INITIATIVES ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOWED BY 
AN INEFFICIENT AND UNCOORDINATED GREEK FOREIGN MINISTRY 
BUREAUCRACY. 
 
4. (C) IN YOUR MEETINGS WITH PAPANDREOU AND DEFENSE MINISTER 
TSOHATZOPOULOS, YOUR OBJECTIVE SHOULD BE TO ENCOURAGE GREECE TO 
TAKE ON A GREATER LEADERSHIP ROLE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSFORMING 
SOUTHEAST EUROPE.   WHILE RECOGNIZING GREECE'S CONTRIBUTIONS TO 
STABILITY IN THE REGION, YOU MAY WANT TO EMPHASIZE THE NEED FOR 
GREATER FOLLOW THROUGH BY THE FOREIGN MINISTRY TO ENSURE THAT 
PERFORMANCE MATCHES PUBLIC RHETORIC.  THE FOLLOWING POINTS COVER 
SOME OF THE SPECIFIC BALKAN ISSUES YOU MAY WANT TO RAISE: 
 
-- APPRECIATE GREECE'S CONTRIBUTION OF TROOPS TO KFOR AND SFOR. 
GREEK SUPPORT FOR MODERATE SERB KOSOVARS CAN PROVE VITAL IN 
BUILDING A MULTI-ETHNIC SOCIETY IN KOSOVO. 
 
-- REITERATE U.S. POLICY ON NO CHANGE OF BORDERS IN THE BALKANS. 
 
-- IMPORTANT TO MAINTAIN PRESSURE ON MILOSEVIC REGIME THROUGH 
STRICT ENFORCEMENT OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS.  MUST ISOLATE BELGRADE 
AND CUT-OFF HARD CURRENCY EARNINGS USED TO PROP UP THE REGIME. 
 
-- HIGHLIGHT NEED FOR SUPPORT IN EU TO ACCELERATE ECONOMIC 
ASSISTANCE TO MONTENEGRO. 
 
-- ENCOURAGE GREATER PUBLIC SUPPORT BY GREECE FOR SERB 
OPPOSITION, INCLUDING NGOS AND OTHER CIVIL GROUPS AS WELL AS 
PUBLIC DIPLOMACY CAMPAIGN TO HIGHLIGHT MILOSEVIC'S REPRESSIVE 
TACTICS AGAINST MEDIA AND CRITICS. 
 
-- NOTE INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF MEETINGS WITH LEADERS OF GREECE'S 
NEIGHBORS (ALBANIA, FYROM AND BULGARIA) AND PROSPECTS FOR GREATER 
COOPERATION ARISING FROM THESE IMPROVED RELATIONS. 
 
-- SUGGEST INCREASED GREEK ROLE IN REGIONAL INITIATIVES SUCH AS 
SECI (BUCHAREST ANTI-CRIME CENTER), STABILITY PACT (TABLE ONE ON 
HUMAN RIGHTS) AND SEDM. 
 
5. (C) OVER THE HORIZON, PAPANDREOU AND TSOHATZOPOULOS WILL BE 
LOOKING TO HEAR A BRIEF ARTICULATION OF YOUR VIEWS ON THE U.S.- 
GREECE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP.  WE SUGGEST THE FOLLOWING POINTS: 
 
-- IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE THE ANNUAL BILATERAL CONSULATIONS BEGUN 
BY A/S GROSSMAN. 
 
-- SEEK COMMITMENT FOR MORE FREQUENT VISITS AT DAS LEVEL TO 
FOLLOW-UP ON POLICY INITIATIVES. 
 
-- ENCOURAGE GREEKS TO ADD SUBSTANCE TO, DEFEND, AND PROMOTE THE 
BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP. 
 
-- NOTE UPCOMING REPORTS (NEXT WEEK) ON IPR AND TERRORISM; GREECE 
NEEDS TO RESOLVE THE WTO IPR CASE AND MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS 
ON COUNTER-TERRORISM TO MOVE OUR BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP FORWARD. 
A COUNTER-TERRORISM BREAKTHROUGH IS IMPORTANT FOR AMERICANS' 
SECURITY IN GREECE. 
 
-- STRESS NEED TO NAIL DOWN DECISION ON F-16 ENGINES; PUSH FOR 
GREEK DECISION TO PURCHASE U.S. M1-A2 TANKS - THE BEST IN THE 
WORLD (WITH TSOHATZOPOULOS ONLY). 
 
-- SUPPORT CONTINUED GREEK RISK-TAKING TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH 
TURKEY AND REACH POLITICAL SETTLEMENT ON CYPRUS.  STRESS 
WILLINGNESS OF U.S. TO PROVIDE SUPPORT TO MAKE FURTHER PROGRESS 
POSSIBLE.  EMPHASIZE THAT WE ARE WORKING WITH ANKARA FOR A 
CONCRETE TURKISH STEP TO IMPROVE GREEK-TURKEY RELATIONS AND PUSH 
FORWARD CYPRUS TALKS. 
 
-- ENCOURAGE GREECE TO FACILITATE FULL TURKISH PARTICIPATION IN 
NATO EXERCISE "DYNAMIC MIX;"  WOULD REBOUND TO GREECE'S CREDIT. 
 
-- PREVIEW OPPORTUNITY PRESENTED BY PAPANDREOU-CEM-ALBRIGHT 
MEETINGS IN TWO WEEKS IN NEW YORK TO MAKE FURTHER PROGRESS ON 
GREECE-TURKEY-CYPRUS ISSUES. 
 
BURNS