US embassy cable - 03SANAA2218

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 002218 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, YM, DOMESTIC POLITICS 
SUBJECT: PROMINENT EXILES RETURNING TO YEMEN 
 
Classified By: Charge D' Affaires Alan G. Misenheimer for reasons 1.5 ( 
b) and (d) 
 
1. (c) Summary: Prominent Yemeni exiles who left after the 
1994 conflict continue to slowly return to Yemen, including 
most recently Dr. Abdul-Aziz al-Dali, a former People's 
Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) foreign minister.  The 
2002 Presidential pardon of 16 separatist Yemen Socialist 
Party (YSP) leaders, however, has not resulted in the return 
of any of the "list of 16," including the top leadership. 
President Saleh publicly repeated his encouragement for 
exiles to return home just after the April 2003 parliamentary 
elections, supporting speculation that the measure is 
intended to provide a counter-balance to tribal, Islamist and 
military forces on the political landscape.  It remains to be 
seen how prominent a role returnees will play in Yemeni 
politics.  End Summary. 
 
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Background 
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2. (u) Following the foiled secession attempt during the 1994 
war, hundreds of Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP) military and 
civilian leaders and their supporters fled Yemen to 
neighboring Gulf States, Egypt, Syria and the United Kingdom. 
 The ROYG conducted trials in absentia and issued death 
sentences to 16 senior leaders, led by former ROYG 
vice-president and YSP secretary general Ali Salem al-Beedh, 
who had fled to Oman. 
 
3. (u) Since the May 2002 Presidential decree dropping 
charges against separatist leaders of the "list of 16" and 
pardoning them, a number of military and civilian leaders and 
their families have returned to Yemen.  While it seems that 
no one from the list has yet come back, the pardon issued by 
President Saleh has encouraged other prominent personalities 
to return.  The most prominent leader to return recently is 
Dr. Abdul-Aziz al-Dali, member of the YSP Central Committee, 
former PDRY Foreign Minister and post-1990 unity Minister of 
State for Foreign Affairs.  He is the highest-ranking YSP 
official come back since newly-appointed Presidential Advisor 
Salem Saleh last year (septel). 
 
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Will Any of the "16" Return? 
---------------------------- 
 
4. (u) It appears that none of the prominent members of the 
"list of 16" has returned to Yemen, although there are 
unconfirmed rumors that perhaps one minor military official 
has come back.  Negotiations between President Saleh and some 
of the most well-known members of the "16" for their return 
are reportedly ongoing.  In a statement to al-Sahwa-net, the 
on-line newspaper of the Islah party, Dr. al-Dali mentioned 
that several high-level exiles were considering returning to 
Yemen soon, including: 
 
--  Haidar Abu-Baker al-Attas, among the "16" and former 
Prime Minister of the ROYG and former PDRY President of the 
Supreme People's Council 
 
--  Yassin Saeed Noman, former Speaker of the first 
post-unity Parliament and former PDRY Prime Minister (Note: 
He is popular and widely regarded by all political forces. 
End Note) 
 
--  Mohamed Saeed Abdullah Muhsen, former Minister of what is 
now called the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development and 
former PDRY Minister of State Security. 
 
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Comment:  What's in it for Saleh? 
--------------------------------- 
 
5. (c) Before the 1994 conflict, the YSP was seen as a 
counter-balancing force to the tribal, Islamist and military 
influences in Yemen.  Many observers view the returnee 
initiative as an attempt to keep influential forces balanced 
against each other in a political scene where maintaining a 
power equilibrium is one of President Saleh's primary 
objectives (along with following the adage keep your friends 
close but your enemies closer).  Some believe Saleh wants to 
ensure the Republic of Yemen can never be split again into 
north and south by keeping close tabs on the PDRY's former 
leaders.  His recent appointment of former YSP Assistant 
Secretary General Salem Saleh, a 2002 returnee, as one of his 
 
SIPDIS 
advisors supports these views (septel).  Saleh's repetition 
of his call to the so-called "list of 16" soon after the 
April 2003 elections was probably also fueled by such 
concerns.  Despite the overwhelming win by the ruling party 
majority in the election, the opposition Islamist and tribal 
Islah party made significant gains in Sanaa, including in the 
President's constituency.  Some observers also believe that 
the ROYG may be under pressure from the countries harboring 
the exiles to allow returns, because many of these countries 
provide financial support to the exiles.  End Comment. 
MISENHEIMER