US embassy cable - 00HARARE2164

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002164 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PARIS PLEASE PASS TO A/S SUSAN E. RICE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF PDAS POWELL, AF DAS SCHNEIDMAN, 
AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK OFFICER GURNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/19/10 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: MUGABE'S SCRIPT DISAPPOINTS, BUT LATER 
CANDOR IS REVEALING 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02164  01 OF 02  191552Z 
 
REF: (A) STATE 64290, (B) HARARE 02121 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5 
(B), (D) 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY.  PRESIDENT MUGABE'S ADDRESS TO 
THE NATION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS 
DISAPPOINTINGLY LACKING IN INDICATING ANY WAY OUT 
OF THE CURRENT CYCLE OF FARM OCCUPATIONS AND 
VIOLENCE.  HE ALSO WAS SILENT ON THE TIMING OF 
THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION.  SUBSTITUTING BANAL 
WORDS ABOUT PROGRESS SINCE INDEPENDENCE FOR THE 
USUAL PUBLIC CELEBRATIONS, MUGABE MISSED AN 
OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE LEADERSHIP TO A NATION 
THAT NEEDS IT NOW MORE THAN EVER.  HOWEVER, IN 
UNSCRIPTED COMMENTS MOMENTS AFTER HIS PREPARED 
SPEECH, MUGABE SAID HE IS FULL OF ANGER TOWARD 
THE COUNTRY'S FARMERS THAT ARE SEEING THEIR FARMS 
OCCUPIED, AND BELIEVES THEY ARE ENEMIES OF 
ZIMBABWE.  THE EU DIPLOMATIC GROUP IN HARARE WILL 
NOT UNDERTAKE A JOINT DEMARCHE WITH US TO PROTEST 
THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS.  THEY LOOK TO THEIR 
MINISTERS IN EUROPE TO CARRY THE WATER. 
AMBASSADOR MCDONALD BELIEVES IT IS TIME FOR THE 
HIGHEST LEVELS OF THE USG TO ENGAGE MUGABE.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
  MUGABE MORE DIRECT THAN HIS SPEECHWRITERS 
 
2.  (C)  READING HIS PREPARED SPEECH TO THE 
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NATION ON APRIL 18, ZIMBABWE'S INDEPENDENCE DAY, 
PRESIDENT MUGABE MADE DISAPPOINTINGLY FEW 
COMMENTS ON THE LAND OCCUPATION CRISIS OR THE 
POLITICAL TURMOIL GRIPPING HIS COUNTRY.  THE 
OBSERVATIONS HE DID MAKE COULD MOST CHARITABLY BE 
CALLED A MISSED OPPORTUNITY, SINCE THEY TENDED TO 
LEGITIMIZE THE ACTIONS OF THE SO-CALLED "WAR 
VETERANS" WHO HAVE OCCUPIED, AT VARIOUS TIMES, 
OVER 1000 COMMERCIAL FARMS AND MURDERED TWO 
FARMERS.  MUGABE ALSO DISAPPOINTED THOSE WHO 
THOUGHT HE WOULD USE THE OPPORTUNITY TO ANNOUNCE 
AN ELECTION DATE. 
 
3.  (C) MUGABE OPENED HIS SPEECH WITH A 
DISCUSSION OF THE EFFECTS ON ZIMBABWE OF THE 
RECENT CYCLONE.  HE REPEATED THE GOVERNMENT'S 
LINE THAT THE REASON THERE WERE NO PUBLIC 
CEREMONIES TO MARK INDEPENDENCE DAY THIS YEAR IS 
SO THE MONEY SAVED COULD INSTEAD GO TO THE 
VICTIMS OF THE CYCLONE.  IT IS SPECULATED THAT 
PUBLIC EVENTS WERE NOT SCHEDULED BECAUSE THE 
PRESIDENT FEARED NO ONE WOULD ATTEND OR HE WOULD 
BE MET BY PROTESTERS.  MUGABE DID NOT COME TO THE 
LAND OCCUPATION ISSUE UNTIL ABOUT 20 MINUTES INTO 
HIS SPEECH.  MUCH OF HIS INITIAL REMARKS COVERED, 
IN EXCRUCIATING DETAIL, STATISTICS SUCH AS THE 
NUMBER OF BOREHOLES IN THE COUNTRYSIDE, INTENDED 
TO PROVE THAT ZIMBABWE HAS IMPROVED SINCE 
INDEPENDENCE. 
 
4.  (C) IN A SUBSEQUENT INTERVIEW IN THE 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  02164  01 OF 02  191552Z 
BROADCAST STUDIO'S LOBBY WITH LOCAL TELEVISION 
THAT APPEARED UNSCRIPTED, MUGABE MADE SOME VERY 
DIRECT STATEMENTS THAT HE IS FULL OF ANGER TOWARD 
THE FARMERS AND SEES THEM AS ENEMIES OF ZIMBABWE. 
IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT THIS STATEMENT IS MORE 
CONSISTENT WITH HIS ACTIONS THAN HIS SCRIPTED 
TELEVISION ADDRESS, AND PROBABLY REVEALS MORE 
CLEARLY HIS PRESENT STATE OF MIND. 
 
  NO DESIRE FROM EUROPEANS FOR A DEMARCHE 
 
5.  (C)  THE RESPONSE HAS BEEN UNDERWHELMING TO 
AMBASSADOR MCDONALD'S RECOMMENDATION TO HIS 
EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES THAT A JOINT DEMARCHE TO 
MUGABE BE UNDERTAKEN TO PROTEST THE GOVERNMENT'S 
OBJECTIONABLE STATEMENTS AND TOLERANCE FOR THE 
GROWING CLIMATE OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION 
(REFTELS).  THE LOCAL EU POSITION IS THAT THEY DO 
NOT THINK HARARE IS THE MOST EFFECTIVE FORUM FOR 
STATEMENTS TO BE MADE.  INSTEAD, THEY WILL LOOK 
TO THEIR CAPITALS TO TAKE THE LEAD.  OUR POSITION 
IS THAT A STATEMENT CAN COME FROM BRUSSELS, BUT 
SHOULD ALSO BE DONE JOINTLY IN HARARE IN A 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO8784 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02164  02 OF 02  191552Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  SRPP-00  DS-00 
      EUR-01   VC-01    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00 
      AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00 
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   TRSE-00 
      USIE-00  R-00     PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00 
      SAS-00     /011W 
                  ------------------4DC41B  191553Z /38 
R 191557Z APR 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5792 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
ALL EUROPEAN UNION POST COLLECTIVE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002164 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PARIS PLEASE PASS TO A/S SUSAN E. RICE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF PDAS POWELL, AF DAS SCHNEIDMAN, 
AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK OFFICER GURNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/19/10 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI 
 
SUBJECT: MUGABE'S SCRIPT DISAPPOINTS, BUT LATER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02164  02 OF 02  191552Z 
CANDOR IS REVEALING 
 
FORCEFUL MANNER.  AMBASSADOR MCDONALD ALSO 
LEARNED THAT A SENIOR EUROPEAN DIPLOMAT MAY COME 
HERE TO DELIVER A STRONG MESSAGE. 
 
COMMENT: TIME TO TALK TO MUGABE 
 
6.  (C)  WE BELIEVE MUGABE'S UNSCRIPTED REMARKS 
ABOUT SEEING THE FARMERS AS ENEMIES OF ZIMBABWE 
REVEAL HIS PRESENT STATE OF MIND.  AFTER 20 YEARS 
IN POWER HE APPEARS INCAPABLE OF DISTINGUISHING 
HIS PERSONAL FEELINGS AND INTERESTS FROM THOSE OF 
THE NATION AT LARGE AND DISINTERESTED IN TRYING 
TO DO SO.  WE ALSO THINK IT IS CLEAR THAT THE 
TARGET OF HIS IRE IS NOT THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS, 
WHITES, OR BRITAIN AS THE FORMER COLONIAL POWER 
PER SE--ALTHOUGH ALL ARE HIGH ON HIS LIST OF 
DISLIKES--BUT RATHER THAT HE IS TRYING TO GET AT 
AND DISRUPT THE NEW AND RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE 
OPPOSITION PARTY, THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC 
CHANGE, HOWEVER HE CAN.  BECAUSE THE FARMERS HAVE 
EXERCISED THEIR DEMOCRATIC RIGHTS TO FREE SPEECH 
AND POLITICAL ACTIVITY IN SUPPORT OF THE MDC, 
THEY ARE TARGETS. 
 
7.  (C)  I BELIEVE IT IS TIME FOR THE HIGHEST 
LEVELS OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT TO MAKE 
KNOWN TO MUGABE THAT WE WELL UNDERSTAND HIS 
POSITION AND REJECT IT AS HE IS SENDING THE 
COUNTRY IN A DISASTROUS DIRECTION.  ZIMBABWE MUST 
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BE A NATION BASED ON LAWS, NOT ON THE 
CALCULATIONS OF POLITICAL EXPEDIENCY OF ONE MAN 
OR ONE PARTY.  THE INCREASING LAWLESSNESS HERE IS 
ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE DELIBERATE ACTIONS AND 
CALCULATED INACTION OF THE GOVERNMENT, STARTING 
WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE.  BY THE SAME TOKEN, THE 
DOWNWARD TREND HERE IS REVERSABLE, SHOULD MUGABE 
DECIDE TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF POLITICAL TOLERANCE, 
WHICH IS, AFTER ALL IS SAID AND DONE, TRULY IN 
HIS SELF INTEREST. 
 
8.  (C)  ACCORDINGLY, I BELIEVE A TELEPHONE CALL 
TO PRESIDENT MUGABE FROM PRESIDENT CLINTON, VICE 
PRESIDENT GORE, OR SECRETARY ALBRIGHT SHOULD BE 
PLACED AT THE EARLIEST POSSIBLE TIME.  WE SHOULD 
ALSO MOVE FORWARD TO CONFIRM THE PROPOSED VISIT 
OF U/S PICKERING.  BY URGING MUGABE TO STEP BACK 
FROM THE BRINK WE WILL BE DOING WHAT WE CAN TO 
SALVAGE DEMOCRACY AND RULE OF LAW IN ZIMBABWE, 
NOT TO MENTION THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMY AND THE 
LIVES OF SOME OF ITS CITIZENS-  END COMMENT. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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