US embassy cable - 00BEIRUT1411

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001411 
 
PARIS FOR LEAF; LONDON FOR SUTPHIN; NICOSIA FOR ILMG 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL: 04/12/10 
TAGS:  PREL, PGOV, KISL, LE 
SUBJECT: ELECTION 2000: AMAL-HIZBALLAH MAKE A DEAL, 
FOR NOW 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMB. DAVID SATTERFIELD.  REASON: 1.5 
(B, D) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  AMAL MOVEMENT AND HIZBALLAH HAVE 
MADE A SYRIAN-INDUCED DEAL TO DISTRIBUTE SEATS AMONG 
THEMSELVES IN THE UPCOMING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. 
IF THE DEAL HOLDS, HIZBALLAH WOULD HAVE A NET GAIN 
OF TWO SEATS, PLUS A STRONGER FIGURE IN A THIRD ONE. 
THESE EXPEDIENT PAIRINGS ARE TYPICAL OF LEBANESE 
LEGISLATIVE CAMPAIGNS AND SYRIAN MACHINATIONS.  THIS 
YEAR, DAMASCUS SEEMS EAGER TO SEW UP WINNING 
COALITIONS NOW, BEFORE ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL, TO ENSURE 
THAT THE POLITICAL STATUS QUO IS PRESERVED AND TO 
MINIMIZE INTERNAL LEBANESE RIVALRIES.  HOWEVER, MANY 
OF THESE DEALS ARE BEING CUT SO EARLY, AND SO 
UNNATURALLY, THAT THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER 
UNTIL THE LATE SUMMER ELECTION.  BOTH HIZBALLAH AND 
AMAL MOVEMENT BELIEVE THEY CAN DO BETTER, AND GET 
MORE SEATS, POST-WITHDRAWAL:  HIZBALLAH BECAUSE OF 
THEIR "VICTORY" OVER ISRAEL, BERRI BECAUSE HE THINKS 
NEWLY LIBERATED CHRISTIANS IN THE SECURITY ZONE WILL 
VOTE FOR HIM AS THE STRONGEST ALTERNATIVE TO THE 
PARTY OF GOD.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) THE HORSETRADING AND DEALMAKING ASSOCIATED 
WITH LEGISLATIVE CANDIDATE LISTS HAS BEEN UNDERWAY 
FOR SOME TIME, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UP UNTIL THE 
EVE OF THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN EARLY AUGUST. 
AMONG THE MORE INTERESTING ELECTION DEVELOPMENTS IS 
WITHIN THE SHI'A COMMUNITY.  THE SYRIANS HAVE GOD- 
FATHERED AN ALLIANCE BETWEEN AMAL MOVEMENT, LED BY 
PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER NABIH BERRI, AND HIS ARCH- 
RIVAL, HIZBALLAH. 
 
3. (C) ACCORDING TO ALI KHALIL, AMAL MP FROM TYRE 
AND THE PARTY'S CAMPAIGN COORDINATOR FOR THE 
ELECTIONS, AMAL AND HIZBALLAH STRUCK THEIR DEAL IN 
FEBRUARY.  AMAL AND HIZBALLAH CANDIDATES WILL RUN ON 
A SINGLE LIST IN THE SOUTH, ACHIEVING MUTUAL 
AGREEMENT ON ALL NOMINEES FOR THE 23 SEATS THERE. 
NATIONWIDE, THE DEAL CALLS FOR A NET INCREASE OF TWO 
SEATS FOR HIZBALLAH, FROM NINE TO ELEVEN IN 
PARLIAMENT, BRINGING BACK INTO PARLIAMENT EX-MPS ALI 
AMMAR AND MUHAMMAD BERJAWI.  THE CHANGES WOULD COME 
AT THE EXPENSE OF AN INDEPENDENT SHI'A IN BEIRUT 
CLOSE TO PM HOSS (EDUCATION MINISTER BEYDOUN) AND A 
SHI'A FROM BAABDA ALLIED WITH HARIRI (EX-INFORMATION 
MINISTER SABA), THEREBY SPREADING THE PAIN AMONG 
OTHER ALLIES OF SYRIA.  IN ADDITION, NAZIH MANSUR, 
AN MP FROM BINT JUBAYL ALLIED TO HIZBALLAH, WOULD 
REPUTEDLY BE REPLACED BY A CARD-CARRYING PARTY 
MEMBER.  KHALIL SAID AMAL AND HIZBALLAH HOLD REGULAR 
ELECTION MEETINGS NOW TO COORDINATE CAMPAIGNS, 
EVIDENCE OF AN AT LEAST SUPERFICIAL EFFORT TO FORGE 
A TRUE PRAGMATIC ALLIANCE. 
 
4. (C) EVERY ELECTORAL YEAR, AMAL AND HIZBALLAH COME 
TO TERMS -- VIA SYRIAN MEDIATION -- ON A "FAIR" 
DISTRIBUTION OF SEATS.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE 
ARRANGEMENT HAS BEEN MADE SO EARLY THIS YEAR, AND 
THAT AMAL APPEARS WILLING TO CONCEDE THAT IT IS 
HIZBALLAH'S TURN TO GROW.  JUDGING FROM THE 
ELECTORAL LAW AND THE ACTIVITIES OF SYRIAN MILITARY 
INTELLIGENCE CHIEF FOR LEBANON GHAZI KANAAN, SYRIA'S 
GOAL FOR THE 2000 LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS IS IN 
GENERAL THE STATUS QUO.  POLITICAL RIVALRIES LIKE 
THE ONE BETWEEN HIZBALLAH AND AMAL CAN ESCALATE INTO 
OPEN POWER STRUGGLES, POSSIBLY OPENING UP THE 
COMPETITION TO ANTI-SYRIAN ELEMENTS, SUCH AS FORMER 
SPEAKER KAMAL AL-ASAD, WHOSE POWER BASE IS IN THE 
SECURITY ZONE.   BERRI'S APPARENT WILLINGNESS TO 
CONCEDE ANY EXPANDED PRESENCE IN PARLIAMENT TO 
HIZBALLAH IS ALSO NOTABLE (HIS 19-MEMBER 
PARLIAMENTARY BLOC HAS ONLY  FOUR AMAL MEMBERS; THE 
OTHER 15 ARE LOOSE ALLIES.)  WHILE AMAL MOVEMENT 
REMAINS THE ORGANIZING PRINCIPLE FOR POLITICS IN 
SOUTH LEBANON, YEARS OF CORRUPTION HAVE DISCREDITED 
THE PARTY.  BERRI MAY HAVE JUDGED IT BEST TO LOCK IN 
A MODEST GAIN FOR HIZBALLAH NOW, RATHER THAN FACE 
HIZBALLAH DEMANDS FOR A GREATER SHARE OF THE SEATS 
AFTER THE EXPECTED SURGE IN POPULARITY FOR HIZBALLAH 
AT OCCUPATION'S END. 
 
5. (C) SOUTHERN MPS YASSINE JABER AND SAMIR AZAR, 
ALLIES OF AMAL MOVEMENT, TOLD US SEPARATELY THAT THE 
AMAL-HIZBALLAH COALITION, WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF A 
UNILATERAL WITHDRAWAL, HAS QUESTIONABLE LONGEVITY. 
THEY MAINTAIN BERRI WAS NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED 
THAT ISRAEL WOULD ACTUALLY WITHDRAW UNTIL RECENTLY. 
AS REALITY SINKS IN, HIS CALCULATIONS ARE CHANGING. 
THEY CLAIM BERRI ASSUMES THAT NEWLY-LIBERATED 
CHRISTIANS OF THE SOUTH WILL LOOK TO HIM FOR 
REPRESENTATION, NOT HIZBALLAH, WHICH IS FEARED AS 
THE PARTY OF POSSIBLE RETRIBUTION.  HIZBALLAH'S 
WITHDRAWAL OF ITS SLA AMNESTY PROPOSAL IN PARLIAMENT 
IS SEEN AS AN ABANDONMENT OF ITS EFFORT TO APPEAL TO 
SOUTHERN CHRISTIAN VOTES. 
 
 
COMMENT 
 
6. (C) SYRIAN HANDLERS FOR LEBANON MADE EVERY SIGN 
OF WANTING TO SEW UP THE ELECTION RESULTS EARLY ON. 
THE MOST EFFECTIVE TOOL IN THIS PROCESS IS TO COMPEL 
ALLIANCES BETWEEN NATURAL RIVALS IN EACH DISTRICT 
WHICH EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATE COMPETITION AND GIVE 
"FIXED MENU" COALITION OFFERINGS TO THE VOTERS.  IN 
SOME DISTRICTS FRACTIOUS LEBANESE, EVEN THOSE ON 
EXCELLENT TERMS WITH DAMASCUS, ARE DEFEATING THIS 
AIM, AS THE BARGAINING MELEE CONTINUES.  THIS HAS 
BEEN ESPECIALLY ACUTE IN THE NORTH, WHERE 
TRADITIONAL POWER CENTERS OF UMAR KARAME, SULEIMAN 
FRANJIYAH, AND NAYLA MUAWID CONTINUE TO MANEUVER IN 
WAYS WHICH UNDERMINE COALITION LIST FORMATION. 
 
7. (C) IN THE SOUTH, BERRI HAS HIS WORK CUT OUT FOR 
HIM.  OF THE TWO PARTIES, HIZBALLAH CAN EASILY 
OUTSPEND AMAL.  IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR BERRI TO 
MARKET AMAL TO THE LIBERATED SECURITY ZONE.  AFTER 
DECADES OF OCCUPATION, DESTRUCTION, AND AN ABYSMAL 
ECONOMY, PEOPLE WANT ASSISTANCE, NOT RHETORIC. 
HIZBALLAH COULD GAIN SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL GROUND 
FROM AMAL IF, FOLLOWING AN IDF WITHDRAWAL, IT 
ACCENTUATES CONSTITUENT SERVICES.  HOWEVER, IN ITS 
PERPETUAL GAME OF PLAYING FACTIONS AGAINST EACH 
OTHER, THE SYRIAN REGIME MAY SEE A NEED TO DEFLATE 
HIZBALLAH FOLLOWING AN ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL, TO KEEP 
IT OFF BALANCE AND DEPENDENT.  BERRI IS THE ONLY 
RELIABLE TOOL AT THEIR DISPOSAL TO COUNTER 
HIZBALLAH, AN ARGUMENT HE NO DOUBT MAKES IN 
DAMASCUS. 
 
8. (C)  ONE WILD CARD IS THE SUPPORT RETAINED BY 
KAMAL AL-ASAD.  ALTHOUGH A SEEMINGLY DISCREDITED 
SYMBOL OF THE OLD GUARD, VIEWED AS TOO ACCOMMODATING 
TO ISRAEL, ASAD POLLED A RESPECTABLE 30% OF THE VOTE 
IN 1992 AND 40% IN 1996, AGAINST THE AMAL/HIZBALLAH 
ALLIANCE LIST.  HIS APPEAL IN THE SECURITY ZONE -- 
THE FAMILY'S TRADITIONAL POWER BASE -- IS UNTESTED 
BUT NO DOUBT STRONG.  ENSURING HE REMAINS FIRMLY AT 
THE BOTTOM OF THE ELECTORAL SWEEPSTAKES IS A GOAL 
SHARED IN COMMON BY SYRIA, BERRI, AND HIZBALLAH. 
 
SATTERFIELD