US embassy cable - 00HARARE2120

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002120 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S RICE, AF POAS POWELL, 
AF DAS 
SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK 
OFFICER GURNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/17/10 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: WEEKEND VIOLENCE NOTCHES UP 
POLITICAL TENSION 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02120  01 OF 03  171528Z 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER JON HOOPER 
FOR REASONS 1.5 (B), (0) 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY. THIS WEEKEND SAW THREE 
DEATHS ASSOCIATED WITH POLITICAL ACTIVITY, 
APPARENTLY THE START OF WHAT MANY OBSERVERS 
THINK WILL BE A SEASON OF ELECTION-RELATED 
VIOLENCE FOR ZIMBABWE.  PRESIDENT MUGABE 
REMAINS INTRANSIGENT IN DEFYING THE COURTS 
OVER ONGOING FARM OCCUPATIONS, AND APPEARED 
UNMOVED BY THE DEATHS.  HIS MAIN POLITICAL 
OPPOSITION CONTINUES TO APPEAR MORE NIMBLE 
THAN MUGABE IN ATTEMPTING TO GARNER 
POLITICAL SUPPORT.  WE FORESEE NO QUICK END 
TO THE SPORADIC VIOLENCE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
  SOWING THE DRAGON'S TEETH 
 
2.  (U)  TWO MEMBERS OF THE MOVEMENT FOR 
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC), THE MAIN POLITICAL 
OPPOSITION PARTY, WERE KILLED APRIL 15 IN 
WHAT LOCAL OBSERVERS BELIEVE TO BE A 
POLITICALLY-INSPIRED ATTACK.  ONE OF THE 
DEAD WAS THE OFFICIAL CHAUFFEUR FOR MDC 
LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI.  HE HAD BEEN 
TRANSPORTING MDC SUPPORTERS HOME FROM A 
POLITICAL RALLY WHEN HIS TRUCK WAS ATTACKED 
AND STOPPED BY GUN-TOTING ASSAILANTS, WHO 
PROCEEDED TO FIREBOMB THE VEHICLE.  THE TWO 
DECEASED WERE TRAPPED IN THE TRUCK AND DIED 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02120  01 OF 03  171528Z 
OF BURNS.  THE SUPPORTERS THAT HAD BEEN 
PASSENGERS ESCAPED LARGELY UNHARMED. 
 
3.  (C)  ALSO ON APRIL 15, A WHITE FARMER 
WAS SHOT TO DEATH IN A CLASH WITH SOME OF 
THE SO-CALLED "WAR VETERANS" WHO HAD BEEN 
OCCUPYING HIS FARM.  THIS FIRST FARMER 
CASUALTY OF THE GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED 
OCCUPATION CAMPAIGN RESULTED WHEN THE FARMER 
BACKED UP HIS LABORERS TO ATTEMPT TO GET THE 
OCCUPIERS OFF HIS FARM. WHILE HE AND HIS 
LABORERS WERE INITIALLY SUCCESSFUL, THE 
OCCUPIERS, WITH HELP FROM OTHERS IN THE 
AREA, REORGANIZED AND COUNTERATTACKED.  IT 
IS EVIDENT THAT THE OCCUPIERS ARE PREPARED 
TO ESCALATE VIOLENCE IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN 
THEIR PRESENCE AGAINST FORCEFUL ATTEMPTS BY 
FARMERS TO EVICT THEM AND HAVE ORGANIZED 
THEMSELVES TO A CERTAIN DEGREE. 
 
MUGABE DEFIANT ON FARM OCCUPATIONS 
 
4.  (C)  PRESIDENT MUGABE RETURNED ON 
SUNDAY, APRIL 16, FROM THE G-77 SUMMIT TO A 
RENT-A-CROWD RECEPTION AT HARARE AIRPORT, 
WHERE HIS PUBLIC REMARKS UNDERLINED HIS 
INTRANSIGENCE ON THE LAND OCCUPATION ISSUE. 
CONTINUING THE LINE OF ARGUMENT HE MADE AT 
THE SUMMIT, MUGABE MADE IT CLEAR THAT HE 
WILL NOT SUPPORT ATTEMPTS TO CLEAR THE 
OCCUPIERS FROM THE FARMS, MUCH LESS ORDER 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  02120  01 OF 03  171528Z 
POLICE TO FOLLOW THE RECENT COURT ORDERS 
THAT THEY SHOULD DO SO.  THIS CAME IN 
COMPLETE CONTRAST TO ACTING PRESIDENT 
MSIKA'S APRIL 14 DECLARATION THAT THE 
COURT'S RULING TO WITHDRAW FROM THE OCCUPIED 
FARMS SHOULD BE HEEDED.  IN WHAT MUST HAVE 
STRUCK MORE THAN A FEW IMPARTIAL OBSERVERS 
AS A NEW LEVEL OF HYPOCRISY, MUGABE ARGUED 
THAT ENFORCING THE COURT ORDERS WOULD BE A 
DANGEROUS ESCALATION OF VIOLENCE. 
 
5.  (C)  PART OF MUGABE'S AND THE POLICE'S 
ARGUMENT AGAINST HAVING THE POLICE FORCE 
MOVE AGAINST THE FARM OCCUPIERS HAS BEEN 
THAT THE POLICE LACK THE NECESSARY 
RESOURCES.  CURIOUSLY, WHEN RUMORS FILLED 
HARARE THAT A NON-ZANU-PF POLITICAL RALLY 
WAS PLANNED FOR SATURDAY, THE POLICE HAD NO 
DIFFICULTY MAKING THEIR PRESENCE KNOWN. 
THERE WERE ROVING PATROLS OF RIOT-EQUIPPED 
OFFICERS IN THE DOWNTOWN BUSINESS AREA, 
MOVING IN GROUPS OF FIVE TO TEN.  FURTHER 
POLICE MANPOWER LOUNGED IN SEVERAL ARMORED 
CARS PARKED NEAR PARLIAMENT, AND POLICE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4189 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02120  02 OF 03  171528Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  SRPP-00  DS-00 
      VC-01    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00 
      AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SCT-00   SP-00    IRM-00   TRSE-00 
      USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00 
        /010W 
                  ------------------4CB336  171535Z /38 
R 171532Z APR 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5782 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 002120 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S RICE, AF POAS POWELL, 
AF DAS 
SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK 
OFFICER GURNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/17/10 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI 
 
SUBJECT: WEEKEND VIOLENCE NOTCHES UP 
POLITICAL TENSION 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02120  02 OF 03  171528Z 
 
ROADBLOCKS ON MAJOR TRAFFIC ARTERIES HEADING 
INTO TOWN CAUSED MAJOR TRAFFIC BACK-UPS AS 
OFFICERS SLOWLY SEARCHED OR INSPECTED THE 
INTERIOR OF ALL PASSING VEHICLES.  IN THE 
END THERE WAS NO DEMONSTRATION--WE HAVE BEEN 
TOLD NONE WAS IN FACT PLANNED--AND HARARE'S 
FINEST, RARE RESOURCE THAT THEY APPARENTLY 
ARE, SIMPLY HAD A LONG DAY OF DOING NOTHING 
MUCH. 
 
6.  (C)  FURTHER TO THE LAND ISSUE, THE 
BRITISH HIGH COMMISSIONER IN HARARE TOLD 
AMBASSADOR MCDONALD DURING LUNCH ON APRIL 17 
THAT THE BRITISH HAVE PROPOSED TO THE GOZ 
THAT THEY SEND A DELEGATION TO LONDON ON 
APRIL 27 FOR BILATERAL LAND REFORM 
DISCUSSIONS. 
 
MDC STILL THINKING AHEAD, ZANU-PF NOT 
 
7.  (C)  IN THE MORE PURELY POLITICAL ARENA, 
THE MDC SPONSORED ADS IN MAJOR NEWSPAPERS 
THIS WEEKEND URGING THEIR URBAN-BASED 
SUPPORTERS TO PICK UP INFORMATION PAMPHLETS 
TO TAKE WITH THEM AS THEY RETURN TO THEIR 
RURAL FAMILIES OVER THE UPCOMING LONG EASTER 
WEEKEND.  AS IS COMMON IN MANY AFRICAN 
COUNTRIES, MANY EXTENOEO FAMILIES WILL 
GATHER IN THEIR VILLAGES THIS HOLIOAY.  BY 
HAVING INFORMATION PACKETS REAOY TO BE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02120  02 OF 03  171528Z 
TRANSPORTED BY THESE WILLING--ANO FREE-- 
COURIERS, THE MOC IS TAKING A SMALL STEP TO 
OVERCOME THE COMMUNICATION GAP THAT 
SEPARATES THEM FROM RURAL AREAS, WHERE ONLY 
THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLEO ELECTRONIC MEDIA 
IS REAOILY AVAILABLE. 
 
8.  (C)  IN CONTRAST, NEWS FROM THE ZANU-PF 
FRONT SHOWS THEY HAVE A CONSIDERABLE 
OISTANCE TO GO BEFORE THEY ARE IN TUNE WITH 
THE MOOO OF THEIR PUTATIVE SUPPORTERS. 
ACCOROING TO NEWS REPORTS MONOAY MORNING, 
VICE PRESIOENT MSIKA WAS BOOEO OVER THE 
WEEKENO WHEN HIS SPEECH AT THE FUNERAL OF 
THE EXECUTIVE MAYOR OF BULAWAYO STRAYED INTO 
AN ATTACK ON MDC PRESIDENT TSVANGIRAI. 
 
   COMMENT 
 
9.  (C)  THE NO-HOLDS-BARRED POLITICAL 
SEASON IS NOW APPARENTLY OPEN IN ZIMBABWE. 
OUR READING OF LOCAL REACTION TO THE WEEKEND 
VIOLENCE IS THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SHOCK 
AND DISMAY THAT THINGS HAVE COME TO THIS 
PASS.  NO ONE IS LOOKING TO A QUICK END TO 
WHAT LOCALS SEE AS A ZANU-PF INTIMIDATION 
CAMPAIGN. 
 
10.  (C)  THIS IS A TIME OF TESTING FOR THE 
MDC.  THEIR RESPONSE TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE 
BLATANT AND CLEARLY LIFE-THREATENING 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02120  02 OF 03  171528Z 
PROVOCATION WILL BE TELLING.  SO FAR THEIR 
OFFICIAL REACTION HAS BEEN LOW KEY.  WE HAVE 
NOT HEARD OF PLANS FOR RETALIATION. IT IS 
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT EFFECT THESE 
EVENTS WILL HAVE ON THEIR SUPPORTERS, BUT WE 
SENSE MANY VOTERS HERE EXPECTED POLITICAL 
CONFLICT TO CAUSE LOSS OF LIFE EVENTUALLY, 
AND WILL NOT BE PUT OFF BY SPORADIC 
VIOLENCE. 
 
11.  (C)  FOR ZANU-PF, THE TIME TO RESCUE 
WHATEVER POLITICAL CREDIBILITY THEY HAVE IS 
NOW.  WE SENSE THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE RIFTS 
WITHIN THE RULING PARTY OVER THE FARM 
OCCUPATIONS.  VICE PRESIDENT MSIKA SURELY 
WAS NOT SPEAKING SOLELY FOR HIMSELF WHEN HE 
GREETED WITH SOME APPARENT ENTHUSIASM LAST 
WEEK'S COURT DECISION THAT POLICE SHOULD 
EVICT THE FARM INVADERS--A BLATANT 
CONTRADICTION OF WHAT, SINCE MUGABE HAS 
SPOKEN, IS NOW OFFICIAL PARTY POLICY.  WE DO 
NOT KNOW HOW FAR THESE POLICY SPLITS RUN ON 
OTHER ISSUES, BUT POLITICIANS WHO EXPECT TO 
HAVE A CAREER HERE BEYOND THE MUGABE ERA 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4190 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02120  03 OF 03  171528Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  SRPP-00  DS-00 
      VC-01    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00 
      AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SCT-00   SP-00    TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /010W 
                  ------------------4CB33A  171535Z /38 
R 171532Z APR 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5783 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 002120 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S RICE, AF POAS POWELL, 
AF DAS 
SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK 
OFFICER GURNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/17/10 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI 
 
SUBJECT: WEEKEND VIOLENCE NOTCHES UP 
POLITICAL TENSION 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02120  03 OF 03  171528Z 
MUST BE LOOKING WITH SOME CONSTERNATION AT 
THE CURRENT GROWTH OF CHAOS.  MOREOVER, THE 
LONGER AND MORE SEVERE THE VIOLENCE, THE 
GREATER WILL BE THE DIFFICULTY IN FINDING 
ANY TAKERS FOR THEIR ASSERTION THAT 
ELECTIONS WILL BE FREE AND FAIR. 
 
12.  (C)  AMBASSADOR MCDONALD LEARNED LATE 
THIS AFTERNOON IN A TELEPHONE CALL WITH DR. 
CHARLES UTETE, CHIEF SECRETARY TO THE 
CABINET, THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE MAY HAVE AN 
ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE LAND 
OCCUPATIONS, WHICH HE SAID "MAY BE OF 
INTEREST TO US."  WE WILL LET YOU KNOW IF 
SUCH AN ANNOUNCEMENT IS MADE. END COMMENT. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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