US embassy cable - 03AMMAN5620

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 005620 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2013 
TAGS: PREL, KPAL, IZ, SY, JO 
SUBJECT: PEACE PROCESS, IRAQ DOMINATE CHAFEE MEETINGS IN 
JORDAN 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) Senator Lincoln Chafee, Chairman of the Senate Foreign 
Relations Subcommittee for Near Eastern and South Asian 
Affairs, met with King Abdallah, Senate President Zaid 
Al-Rifa'i, and several Jordanian academics and political 
activists to discuss Iraq, the peace process, and Jordan's 
domestic issues on September 1.  The King expressed concern 
that the road map is facing a difficult period given the 
latest round of violence.  He blamed Arafat for weakening Abu 
Mazen, while Al-Rifa'i placed the blame squarely on the 
Israelis.  During several meetings, the Senator encountered 
blunt criticism about the U.S. performance in Iraq thus far, 
and heard differing views about Syria's intentions vis-a-vis 
Iraq.  Charge, Poloff and the Senator's aide also attended 
the meetings.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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PEACE PROCESS: PESSIMISM ON FUTURE OF ROAD MAP 
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2. (C) King Abdallah told Senator Chafee he will travel to 
Washington in two weeks, mainly to discuss the 
Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the situation in Iraq.  He 
said he foresees a difficult road ahead, and berated Yasser 
Arafat for weakening Abu Mazen and Muhammed Dahlan at a 
critical juncture.  He said Arafat's "militant thinking" is 
weakening Abu Mazen, who has come out firmly against armed 
resistance.  The Senator replied that "demonizing" Arafat is 
not helpful because he is still a player and we also need to 
address Israeli actions, particularly settlement expansion. 
The King agreed, saying that Israel, as the stronger player 
in the process, needs to make more effort if they truly want 
to move the process forward.  However, he added that the 
Quartet must reach a consensus about how and whether to deal 
with Arafat, adding that the Foreign Minister currently is 
consulting with the parties on this matter. 
 
3. (C) In a separate meeting, Senate President Zaid Al-Rifa'i 
told Senator Chafee that because Palestinians and Jordanians 
are "one people," the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian violence in 
the territories makes it difficult for Jordanians to focus on 
internal issues.  He said people are "facing the loss of 
hope" after the failure of the peace process, and that 
Jordanians are not convinced the U.S. is serious about its 
commitment to the process.  Al-Rifa'i emphasized that active 
U.S. involvement is critical to moving the process forward, a 
theme voiced by nearly every Jordanian the Senator met.  He 
said people initially were hopeful that the road map would be 
successful, but that Israeli actions, including ongoing 
settlement expansion, property confiscation, home demolition, 
and assassinations of Palestinian activists, are inexcusable. 
 He expressed his disappointment that recent U.S. statements 
seem to give Israel a green light to continue their 
provocative actions.  He called on the United States to work 
for another ceasefire, and complained that the U.S. is not 
doing enough to rein in the Israelis. 
 
4. (C) In response to a question from Senator Chafee about 
security at Jordan's border with the West Bank, Al-Rifa'i 
said Jordan controls it tightly, and only allows West Bank 
Palestinians to stay temporarily in Jordan.  He said Jordan 
does not want to play into the hands of Sharon and his 
cronies who want to empty the West Bank of Palestinians as 
part of their transfer policy. 
 
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IRAQ: BLUNT CRITICISM OF US POST-WAR PROGRESS THUS FAR 
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5. (C) On the matter of Iraq, Al-Rifa'i said Jordan supported 
the war as necessary to rid Iraq of a brutal dictator, but 
the situation now is a "real mess."  Al-Rifa'i quipped that 
it is pointless to talk about democracy when basic services, 
including water, communications, and electricity, are 
lacking: "If a man doesn't have feet, you don't offer him 
shoes." Voicing his personal opinion, Al-Rifa'i said that 
Iraq needs a strong, benevolent general at this point, not an 
Iraqi governing council, which is perceived as a U.S. front 
lacking credibility.  However, he said that without Saddam in 
the picture there is hope, as long as "our friends in 
Washington will get their act together" and get Iraq moving 
forward. 
 
6. (C) Al-Rifa'i, Philadelphia University Vice President of 
International Relations Ibrahim Badran and Jordan University 
Center for Strategic Studies Director Mustafa Hamarneh 
separately deplored the U.S. decision to dissolve the army, 
police, and civil service, noting that there are experts 
within those ranks that should be playing a constructive role 
in rebuilding the country. 
7. (C) In response to Senator Chafee's question about the 
ramifications of the Najaf bombing on August 29, Al-Rifa'i 
said it depends whether people are convinced that the correct 
perpetrators are arrested.  He expressed concern about 
reports that Iraqi and Saudi Sunni Muslims may be involved, 
fearing that the bombing could trigger Sunni-Shi'a violence 
aimed at settling old scores.  The King emphasized the 
importance of positive forward movement towards stability in 
Iraq despite the setbacks, and said that Jordan continued to 
pursue leads to determine who carried out the attack. 
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DIFFERING VIEWS OF SYRIAN INTENTIONS 
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8. (C) In response to questions from Senator Chafee, both the 
King and Al-Rifa'i believe that Bashar al-Asad has the 
potential to be an effective, progressive leader, but they 
noted that the Syrian President is caught between his desire 
to move Syria forward politically and economically, and the 
demands of power hungry generals left over from his father's 
old guard.  Al-Rifa'i said U.S. threats to Syria (i.e., the 
Syria Accountability Act) play into the extremists' hands and 
isolate Bashar.  The King said he is concerned that Bashar is 
"reading the map wrong," and suggested that Syria doesn't 
understand its own vulnerabilities in the region. He worries 
that Syria will instigate problems at the Iraqi-Syrian 
border, because in his view, Iraqi instability is in Syria's 
interest. 
 
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DEMOCRATIZATION IN JORDAN CHUGGING ALONG 
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9. (C) The King expressed appreciation for the United States' 
assistance for social economic programs that he believes are 
helping to foster the democratization process in Jordan.  He 
mentioned his intention to meet members of Jordan's 
newly-elected Parliament later that day.  He expressed his 
hope the 30-odd political parties in Jordan would find 
consensus among themselves to merge into perhaps three or 
four parties with coherent, activist platforms to attract a 
wider cross section of the population to the polls for the 
next election in four years. 
 
10. (C) Over lunch, academics also saw a need for more 
active, substantive political parties, particularly to 
counter the Islamist trend, but said consolidation of the 
parties would be better achieved from the bottom up, not via 
a dictate from the government.  Former Jordan Times editor 
Rana Sabbagh-Gargour said that the Islamic Action Front is 
the most organized political party because of its well 
established social and charitable network provides them 
grassroots connections to garner support. 
 
11. (C) Senator Chafee did not have an opportunity to clear 
this cable prior to his departure. 
HALE