US embassy cable - 03HARARE1731

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001731 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, SOCI, ZI 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION SCORES WELL IN ZIMBABWE ELECTIONS 
MARKED BY LESS INTIMIDATION 
 
REF: (A) HARARE 1717 (B) HARARE 1711 (C) HARARE 636 
     (D) 2002 HARARE 2354 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
1. SUMMARY.  (C) The MDC retained its parliamentary seat, 
won six out of seven mayoral races, and gained more than 
half of the urban council seats that were up for grabs in 
local elections held August 30 - 31.  Voting at polling 
stations, observed by independent observers including 
emboffs, was generally peaceful.  Most irregularities 
revolved around the run-up to the elections, with charges 
of intimidation, vote-buying, and registration of ghost 
voters.   The election results generally went as expected, 
although ZANU-PF machinations may have been decisive in at 
least one instance.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Results Breakdown 
----------------- 
 
2.  (U)                Mayoral   Urban Council 
 
                                 MDC   ZANU-PF 
1     Bulawayo                   29    0 
2     Chitungwiza                5     2 
3     Gwanda           MDC       6     3 
4     Gweru            MDC       9     1 
5     Hwange                     5     1 
6     Kadoma                     0     16 
7     Kariba           MDC       6     3 
8     Karoi                      results pending 
9     Kwekwe           ZANU-PF   2     12 
10    Marondera                  0     11 
11    Mashvingo                  8     2 
12    Mutare           MDC       results pending 
13    Norton                     4     8 
14    Redcliff         MDC       8     1 
15    Ruwa                       3     5 
16    Shurugwi                   0     13 
17    Victoria Falls   MDC       8     3 
18    Zvishavane                 5     5 
 
TOTALS       6 MDC, 1 ZANU-PF    98    86 
 
      By-Elections 
 
1     Harare Central   MDC 
2     Makonde          ZANU-PF 
 
Observing 
--------- 
 
3.  (C) Four Emboffs took part in an independent diplomatic 
observing mission that covered most areas of the country 
just before, and on the voting days themselves.  While GOZ 
never acted on repeated requests from the U.S. and other 
diplomatic missions to be accredited as official election 
observers, the Registrar General in Harare on the first day 
of voting reportedly authorized diplomats to observe. 
However, the authorization was not communicated effectively 
to local authorities, who sometimes restricted access to 
polling places and frequently refused to answer questions. 
The Zimbabwe Elections Support Network (ZESN) reported that 
its observers had difficulty gaining access to only about 
ten percent of the polling stations, and they observed 
irregularities in about five to ten percent of the polling 
stations they entered.  All ZESN observers eventually were 
given access to their assigned polling stations, a marked 
improvement over prior elections in which they were beaten 
or otherwise obstructed in many instances. 
 
Violence and Intimidation 
------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) There were only a few reports of violence and 
tension on the voting days, and Emboffs found the 
atmosphere to be slightly more open to their presence than 
in previous local elections.  The MDC reported that ZANU-PF 
youths stoned the car of the MDC mayoral candidate in 
Kwekwe on August 30.  Other reports had voters obstructed 
from reaching polling stations.  Emboff observed armed 
police attempting to calm mostly MDC voters who were 
shouting and shoving at a polling station in the Mutare 
area when a ZANU-PF candidate tried to form a second line 
for her voters only.  There were other reports of violence, 
unlawful detention, house stoning and burning during the 
run-up to elections; however, there reports were fewer in 
number and the incidents were less egregious than in 
previous local elections (Refs).  MDC officials generally 
agreed that the atmosphere before and during the elections 
was more peaceful than in the past. 
 
Voters Rolls 
------------- 
 
5.  (C) There were several reports from around the country 
that there had been mysterious additions to voter rolls, 
and voters with improper addresses.  According to Renson 
Gasela, MDC Shadow Minister of Agriculture, in about half 
of the polling stations in the Gweru area, camp kitchens 
were set up about 100 meters from polling stations to 
apparently feed voters who had been bussed in from rural 
areas.  According to the MDC mayoral candidate in Gweru, on 
August 30, a confused woman who was not on the voters roll 
implored polling officials to let her vote, saying she'd 
been brought in from a rural area for that purpose.  The 
candidate also relayed stories of hundreds of odd addresses 
on the voters' roll, including a bus terminal, a P.O. Box 
and 200 voters registered to one apartment alone. 
 
Food Distribution 
----------------- 
 
6.  (C) MDC officials in Bulawayo, Gweru, Gwanda, Mutare, 
Marondera and Kwekwe alleged that during the pre-election 
period, national youth service members ("Green Bombers") 
sold maize meal in ten to fifty kilogram bags for about 
Z$1,000 (US$0.20)--when the normal price for ten kilogram 
bags has been about Z$14,000 (US$2.50) (Ref A). 
 
Apathy 
------ 
 
7.  (C) The worst case of voter apathy seemed to occur in 
Harare Central where 4036 votes were cast, or only about 
eleven percent of registered voters, according to the 
government-controlled The Herald.  Emboffs observed lines 
of hundreds of people in front of banks around the country 
during voting hours, while voters arrived in trickles to 
polling stations. 
 
Results 
------- 
 
8.  (C) The results in almost all of these constituencies 
were roughly consistent with expectations, and previous 
elections in these areas.  The only glaring difference so 
far was in Kwekwe, where the ruling party swept the mayoral 
and all council seats.  In the 2002 Presidential elections, 
the ruling party garnered only 36 percent in Kwekwe, and in 
the 2000 parliamentary elections it got a paltry 34 
percent. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (C) These elections were characterized primarily by low 
voter turnout and reduced levels of violence.  As in 
previous elections, much of the ruling party's machinations 
were disruptive but not decisive.  It is difficult to say 
how much low voter turnout at these local elections should 
be attributed to intimidation or plain apathy -- daily life 
for many in Zimbabwe leaves insufficient time, resources or 
inclination to vote (witness the long bank lines often 
within sight of empty polling stations).  Reduced levels of 
violence on a national level likely reflect in part 
ZANU-PF's desire to improve its engagement with the 
opposition and interested international players. 
Nonetheless, intimidation through physical and economic 
duress in several areas indicated that the party is 
unwilling to lose even local areas in certain instances. 
For example, Kwekwe -- site of Parliamentary Speaker 
Emmerson Mnangagwa's embarrassing defeat in the last 
parliamentary election -- saw a relatively high level of 
intimidation and manipulation that may have been decisive 
in the result.  In any event, the overall results secure 
the opposition's overall grip on urban electorates, which 
have given the MDC control of six of the country's seven 
largest urban centers and make it harder to ignore. 
Largely expected as they were and marked by a gradually 
growing civility between the parties, the results further 
are unlikely to affect either the national imbalance of 
power between the parties or progress on interparty talks. 
SULLIVAN