US embassy cable - 03RANGOON1057

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001057 
 
SIPDIS 
 
TREASURY FOR OASIA JEFF NEIL 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, BM, National Convention, NLD 
SUBJECT: PM KHIN NYUNT'S SPEECH: THE BURMESE ROAD TO 
"DISCIPLINED DEMOCRACY" 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  On August 30 General Khin Nyunt delivered 
his first speech as Prime Minister (and perhaps the first 
such policy address from Burma's military regime in over ten 
years), promising a seven-step transition to a "disciplined 
democracy."  However, his "Road Map of Myanmar" offers 
nothing that hasn't been promised before during the military 
regime's 15-year rule.  Absent any details--or even a basic 
timeline--the speech did nothing to convince observers in 
Burma that the SPDC has any intention of giving up power. 
Khin Nyunt's specific criticism of ASSK and the NLD gives us 
further evidence that the SPDC is determined to dismantle the 
pro-democracy movement.  End summary. 
 
2. (C) On Saturday August 30, SPDC General Khin Nyunt 
delivered a policy speech "clarifying the future policies and 
programs of the State" to a large cast of military and 
government officials, including members of the junta's 
governing council, cabinet ministers, regional military 
commanders, and representatives of state-sponsored 
organizations.  The 80 minute address, delivered Saturday 
morning at Rangoon's refurbished Parliament building, was his 
first policy pronouncement as Burma's new Prime Minister and 
was broadcast later in the day on official television.  The 
GOB did not invite the diplomatic corps, ethnic groups, or 
international NGOs to the speech. 
 
The SPDC Saviors 
---------------- 
 
3. (C) In his policy speech, a rarity for leaders of the 
Burmese regime, General Khin Nyunt extolled the virtues of 
the armed forces ("Tatmadaw") and delivered a stale defense 
of the 1988 military coup which brought the current regime to 
power.  Citing dubious economic data, and incongruous 
statistics such as "128 PhD students produced in the last 
three years" and "1,012 miles of new railroads since 1989," 
Khin Nyunt devoted the first half of his speech to the SPDC's 
standard argument that the military alone is capable of 
leading Burma's diverse population and saving the country 
from falling into chaos. 
 
4. (C) Khin Nyunt used his address to direct pointed 
criticism at the National League for Democracy (NLD) and Aung 
San Suu Kyi (ASSK).  Alleging that the NLD had "placed the 
attitude and wishes of an individual (ASSK) and the interests 
of its own party above the national cause," Khin Nyunt blamed 
the NLD for the collapse of the National Convention in 
1996--and, by inference, blocking a transition to 
democracy--and for convincing "some big countries" to 
unjustly pressure the SPDC.  He also accused the NLD of 
"continuous political manipulations to bring down the present 
government," a thinly veiled accusation that ASSK had 
provoked the May 30 violent attack against her and her convoy 
of party members and supporters.  These negative references 
were the only specific mention in the speech of the 
democratic opposition. 
 
Road Map to a "Disciplined Democratic System" 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) In his speech, Khin Nyunt unveiled what he called a 
seven step "Road Map of Myanmar."  Without offering details 
or specifying a timeline, the PM said the government would, 
step-by-step, reconvene the National Convention; implement a 
"genuine and disciplined democratic system;" draft a new 
constitution; adopt the constitution through a national 
referendum; hold parliamentary elections; convene a new 
Parliament; and form a new Parliamentary-based government. 
The reference to a "disciplined democracy," and repeated 
references to the need for a home-grown democratic system, 
suggested that the SPDC anticipates the military will 
maintain supreme authority over any future government. 
 
Comment: Hopes Dashed 
--------------------- 
6. (C) Despite widespread mistrust of the military regime, 
many Burmese had some expectations that Khin Nyunt's speech, 
given his recent appointment as Prime Minister and the rarity 
of direct policy communications from the regime, might 
actually deliver some new, if not good, news.  On both 
accounts, the Burmese people were sorely disappointed.  Khin 
Nyunt's "Road Map of Myanmar," while neatly packaged, is 
nothing more than a collection of empty promises proffered by 
the SLORC and SPDC at different junctures over the past 
fifteen years.  "We've heard all of this before" has been a 
common refrain on the streets of Rangoon over the past two 
days. 
7. (C) General Khin Nyunt's speech also underscored the 
SPDC's apparent resolve to exclude ASSK and the NLD from the 
political process in Burma.  He specifically noted that the 
government would reconvene the National Convention "that has 
been adjourned since 1996," which by definition describes the 
Convention after the NLD withdrew in protest.  Many observers 
here had also hoped that Khin Nyunt would announce a release 
of political prisoners, a Burmese tradition in speeches "from 
the throne," and give some indication as to when the SPDC 
would free ASSK and her colleagues from "protective custody." 
 Not only did the PM fail to deliver on these expectations, 
his personal criticism of ASSK and the NLD leads many to 
believe that the regime has every intention of completing the 
total dismantling of the NLD, a process that began with the 
May 30 attack and was followed by the shuttering of all NLD 
offices and a mass roundup of NLD leaders and members.  End 
comment. 
Martinez