US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO1522

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001522 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR D, SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA, S/CT; NSC FOR 
E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:     DECL:  09-02-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINR, PINS, CE, current biographies, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  Tiger political chief Thamilchelvam's steady 
eclipse of group's long-time spokesman 
 
Refs:  (A) SA/INS-Colombo class e-mail 08/29/03 
 
-      (B) Colombo 1504, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of 
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.   (C) SUMMARY:  S.P. Thamilchelvam, political chief of 
the Tamil Tigers, has taken an increasingly high profile 
role as chief Tiger spokesman on peace track issues.  In 
the meantime, Anton Balasingham, the group's long-time 
spokesman and negotiator, has not been heard from in 
weeks.  In explaining this situation, some say 
Balasingham is ill and is convalescing, or that 
Thamilchelvam has been hand-picked by Tiger leader 
Prabhakaran to replace Balasingham for political 
reasons.  If the experienced Balasingham remains out of 
the picture, it could represent a setback for the peace 
process, given Thamilchelvam's acute lack of 
international experience and stature.  END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------- 
Thamilchelvam's Ascendance 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) In the past several months, S.P. Thamilchelvam, 
political chief of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam 
(LTTE), has taken an increasingly high profile role as 
chief Tiger spokesman on peace process issues.  In doing 
so, Thamilchelvam is steadily eclipsing the role 
traditionally held by Anton Balasingham, the LTTE's 
long-standing chief spokesman and negotiator.  Signs of 
Thamilchelvam's rapid ascendancy include: 
 
-- In a late August "in house" meeting of LTTE officials 
and pro-LTTE Tamils in Paris, Thamilchelvam led the LTTE 
team (see Ref B).  Balasingham, who lives in London, did 
not attend.  Thamilchelvam's participation received 
significant local press coverage and he was also 
featured on the pro-LTTE website, "TamilNet." 
Thamilchelvam is also slated to lead a LTTE team to 
Switzerland in early September to discuss federalism- 
related issues. 
 
-- In late July - early August, Thamilchelvam made a 
high profile trip to eastern Sri Lanka.  In Batticaloa 
and Trincomalee Districts, Thamilchelvam spoke at a 
number of large pro-LTTE rallies and met with the local 
Tiger leadership.  The trip received significant press 
coverage (see Ref B), including on TamilNet. 
 
-- TamilNet, and other pro-LTTE websites and 
publications, have taken to lavishly quoting 
Thamilchelvam's comments on current events. 
 
-- Thamilchelvam is increasingly the "go to" LTTE 
official for the Norwegian government facilitation team 
and the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission 
(SLMM). 
 
(Note:  Additional bio information regarding 
Thamilchelvam and Balasingham is available in Reftels.) 
 
------------------------ 
Silence from Balasingham 
------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) The flip side of Thamilchelvam's high profile has 
been the silence from the London-based Balasingham. 
Since the advent of the peace process in December 2001 
until recently, Balasingham was the key LTTE official 
cited by the pro-LTTE press, and the LTTE official 
taking the lead in meetings with the Norwegian 
facilitators and GSL officials.  That has all changed, 
however.  As mentioned above, while Balasingham used to 
be quoted on TamilNet constantly, his last substantive 
statement was posted on June 25.  After that time, it 
has all been Thamilchelvam.  Moreover, based on comments 
from Tamil contacts, there are also no/no reports that 
Balasingham has been meeting in London with Tamil 
interlocutors regarding peace process issues.  There are 
also no indications that he plans to visit Sri Lanka, as 
he has done on occasion during the course of the peace 
process, to consult with the LTTE leadership in the 
north.  From what Mission understands, the Norwegian 
facilitators have also not met him in some time.  We 
have also not heard of any contacts between Balasingham 
and Sri Lankan government officials in months.  In 
essence, Balasingham seems to be completely out of the 
picture at this time. 
 
--------------------------- 
Is it Balasingham's Health? 
--------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) The LTTE, as is its secretive style regarding 
personnel matters (and just about anything else), has 
not issued any statements explaining Balasingham's 
absence from the scene -- or Thamilchelvam's ascendance. 
In discussing this issue, some contacts claim that 
Balasingham is seriously ill and no longer can do the 
job, or that he is storing up his strength for possible 
peace talks later this year.  It has long been known 
that Balasingham has chronic illnesses; he has 
reportedly had a kidney transplant and is said to have 
diabetes.  In arranging for Balasingham's participation 
at the six rounds of peace talks held from late 2002 
through early 2003 in venues including Bangkok and 
Berlin, the Norwegian facilitators had to work hard to 
ensure that Balasingham had access to medical care at 
all times. 
 
5.  (C) Regarding Balasingham's current health status, 
Norwegian contacts have told us that they think that 
Balasingham is basically convalescing.  In an August 29 
meeting with poloff, Kjersti Tromsdahl, poloff at the 
Norwegian Embassy, noted that the GoN did not have much 
concrete information on the situation.  That said, she 
commented that she thought that Balasingham's health was 
extremely poor, but was not deteriorating.  Balasingham 
appeared to be pacing himself, preparing for possible 
talks with the Sri Lankan government later this year. 
The Norwegians had no indications that Balasingham's 
health might take him out of the picture completely, or 
that he had somehow run afoul of V. Prabhakaran, the 
LTTE leader, Tromsdahl related. 
 
6.  (C/NF) British government contacts have given us a 
mixed picture re Balasingham's health.  In an August 29 
conversation, Margaret Tongue, poloff at the British 
High Commission, told us that she had heard that 
Balasingham was ill and that his health was getting 
worse.  Tongue indicated that HMG officials had not met 
with Balasingham in some time, although he lives in the 
London area.  In the meantime in a report that somewhat 
contradicted Tongue's points, a British embassy contact 
provided an intel document to SA/INS deskoff on 
August 29 that said that Balasingham had recently made 
personal trips outside of the UK.  The information that 
Balasingham was ambulatory tended to indicate that his 
health was not the reason for his recent low profile on 
peace track issues (see more re British views below). 
 
--------------- 
Is it Politics? 
--------------- 
 
7.  (C) Another perspective on the situation is that 
Thamilchelvam has been hand-picked by Tiger leader V. 
Prabhakaran to replace Balasingham for political 
reasons.  Several Tamil contacts hold this view.  Suresh 
Premachandran, a Tamil politician with long-standing 
connections with Tamil militant groups, for example, 
told us recently that he thought that Prabhakaran had 
decided to take a harder line regarding the peace 
process, and had taken steps to substitute a more pliant 
Thamilchelvam for the more independent-minded 
Balasingham.  Premachandran added that he had heard that 
Prabhakaran and Balasingham had had a bit of a falling 
out over participation at the Tokyo donors conference. 
Balasingham had wanted the LTTE to go, but Prabhakaran 
had ordered the LTTE to boycott the June 2003 
conference. 
 
8.  (C/NF) In an August 30 conversation with poloff, N. 
Raviraj, a MP for the Tamil National Alliance, said he 
also thought politics was the genesis of Balasingham's 
seeming eclipse.  He said he had heard that 
Balasingham's position within the LTTE hierarchy was not 
a strong one at this time and Prabhakaran had decided to 
give more responsibility to Thamilchelvam.  Neither 
Premachandran nor Raviraj thought that Balasingham's 
disappearance from the scene was necessarily permanent, 
however, with both thinking he could make a comeback if 
Prabhakaran permitted it.  (Note:  The British document 
mentioned above also indicated that there was some 
dissonance in the LTTE between "pragmatic hard-liners" 
like Balasingham and "hard-liners" like Thamilvelvam. 
Prabhakaran was backing the hard-line camp, according to 
the document.  The British report was not clear as to 
its sourcing.) 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
9.  (C) The LTTE is a notoriously opaque organization. 
Given how secretive it is, there is virtually no way to 
confirm reports that Prabhakaran may have replaced 
Balasingham in favor of Thamilchelvam.  At the same 
time, accurate information about the precise state of 
Balasingham's health is not available.  What can be 
said, however, is that if Balasingham remains out of the 
picture for whatever reason, it could represent a 
setback for the peace process.  Balasingham has years of 
international experience and understands the art of 
negotiation.  Thamilchelvam, a former LTTE military 
official, lacks such experience.  Unlike Prabhakaran, he 
also lacks stature, as he seems more of a creature of 
Prabhakaran's than an influential actor within LTTE 
circles in his own right.  All that said, given 
Prabhakaran's absolutely central importance in the 
organization, LTTE decision-making regarding peace track 
issues will ultimately be decided by what policies 
Prabhakaran alone chooses to pursue, and not by either 
Balasingham or Thamilchelvam.  Experience is important, 
however, and a prolonged absence by Balasingham could 
potentially lead to problems around the edges of the 
peace process down the road.  END COMMENT. 
 
10.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD