US embassy cable - 03HARARE1717

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001717 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
DS/OP/AF 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, ASEC, ZI 
SUBJECT: MIXED REPORTS IN RUN-UP TO ZIMBABWE'S LOCAL 
ELECTIONS 
 
REF: (A) HARARE 1711 (B) HARARE 636 (C) 2002 HARARE 
     2354 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: Zimbabwe will hold two parliamentary 
by-elections, and mayoral and urban council elections in 
twenty cities across the country on August 30 - 31.  Embassy 
Harare has been coordinating with other missions in Harare to 
mount an observation effort to cover most of the 
constituencies.  There have been incidents of violence, 
vote-buying, and other machinations; but there have also been 
positive signs - police have arrested individuals alleged to 
have been involved in intimidation, the GOZ has authorized 
substantially more local election observers, and candidates 
have met to reduce tensions.  END SUMMARY 
 
2. (U) Zimbabwe will hold two parliamentary by-elections, 
seven mayoral, and eighteen urban council elections in twenty 
cities across the country on August 30 - 31.  By-elections 
are scheduled for Makonde (Mashonaland West) and Harare 
Central districts.  In Makonde, ZANU-PF Minister of Higher 
Education Dr. Swithun Mombeshora, who also had been MP for 
Makonde since 1980, died from a stroke in March.  MDC Harare 
Central MP Michael Auret resigned due to prolonged illness. 
The mayoral and urban council elections are being held 
according to Zimbabwe's convoluted schedule for such events; 
more are to be held in November.  With terms of five years, 
this is the fist time that the opposition MDC, formed in 
1999, has contested these seats.  ZANU-PF still needs five 
parliamentary seats to obtain a majority - these by-elections 
are unlikely to change that number. 
 
Observers 
--------- 
 
3. (C) Embassy Harare has been coordinating with other 
missions in Harare to mount an observation effort to cover 
most of the constituencies around the country.  The GOZ has 
accredited 308 observers from the Zimbabwe Elections Support 
Network (ZESN)-- enough to cover most of planned 350 - 400 
polling stations.  This stands in stark contrast to previous 
elections in which a tiny fraction of ZESN's proposed 
observers were accredited.  At the same time, the government 
has not responded to repeated requests from numerous 
diplomatic missions (including this one) for accreditation of 
observers. 
 
Machinations 
------------ 
 
4. (C) Based on their initial audit, MDC director of 
elections Remus Makuwaza said that 4,000 people have been 
added to the voters' roll in Mutare, 3,000 in Gwanda, 7,000 
in Makonde, and 6,000 in Gweru since the last elections in 
those cities.  1,700 have been inexplicably dropped from 
voters' rolls in Harare Central alone.  MDC Shadow Minister 
of Justice and Bulawayo MP David Coltart reported that the 
Registrar General's Office in Bulawayo delayed release of 
voters' rolls to MDC officials until the week before the 
election despite repeated requests; one of five rolls remains 
outstanding.  The MDC Mayor of Bulawayo reported that his 
staff observed youths engaging in activities suspected to be 
associated with ballot-stuffing.  According to an independent 
councilor in Mutare, where council and mayoral elections will 
be held, youth militia members recently distributed Grain 
Marketing Board (GMB) sourced maize meal to ZANU-PF party 
cardholders only, a practice MDC officials maintain is 
widespread.  In the same vein, the independent press reported 
that youth militia members in Bulawayo also sold GMB maize 
for Z$1,000 (US$.18) per 10 kg bag, while the normal price 
had been around Z$14,000 (US$2.50). 
 
5. (C) According to Zimbabwe Elections Support Network (ZESN) 
Director Reginald Matchaba-Hove, the Registrar General had 
not formally announced polling stations locations as of 
August 27.  He also anticipated there would be "mobile 
polling stations" in Makonde, and that the Registrar General 
might reduce the overall number of polling stations 
throughout the country from 441 to 350. 
 
Violence 
-------- 
 
6. (U) Ruling party supporters used intimidation tactics to 
prevent at least twenty potential candidates from registering 
their candidacies at nominations held on July 21 (Ref B). 
Human rights lawyers in Mutare reported that during the week 
of August 11, ruling party members beat about fifty MDC 
supporters, including council and mayoral candidates.  The 
MDC also reported on August 27 that six of its polling agents 
in Kwekwe were abducted and beaten by ruling party 
supporters, and candidates in Kadoma and Kwekwe had been 
intimidated by late-night visits by suspected members of the 
Central Intelligence Office (CIO).  In Makonde police 
arrested members of a gang known as "Top Six" for attacking 
MDC election agent Joseph Mutsvangwa on August 25.  In Gwanda 
police arrested ruling party supporters who reportedly had 
intimidated MDC members and candidates during the week of 
August 18.  According to MDC officials, unknown assailants on 
August 27 petrol-bombed the home of MDC council candidate 
Nathan Makwasha in Kariba. 
 
Progress 
-------- 
 
7. (C) The Mutare troika of bishops called a meeting of all 
three mayoral candidates and secured their public agreement 
to abide by a "code of conduct" agreement and to call on 
their supporters to conduct their campaigns peacefully (Ref 
A).  They established an office to mediate pre-election 
complaints associated with the code of conduct.  According to 
Thomas Bvuma, Public Relations Coordinator for the GOZ's 
Electoral Supervisory Committee (ESC), as required by law ESC 
officials had formed multi-party liaison committees in 
Makonde and Harare Central to foster dialogue aimed at 
reducing pre-election violence.  ESC's Bulawayo coordinator 
reported such a liaison committee was working well in his 
district and already had resolved a number of complaints 
amicably. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
8. (C) While there have been troublesome levels of reported 
violence, intimidation, and other machinations in the run-up 
to these elections, the incidents appear to be fewer in 
number and less egregious than in previous local elections 
(Refs).  On a national level, these elections will do little 
to change the political imbalance of power in the short run. 
Nevertheless, the integrity of their conduct and outcome may 
have an impact on atmospherics for possible inter-party 
dialogue and on the parties' efforts to play to international 
opinion. 
SULLIVAN